Public Sector Economics

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A stochastic forecast for the Croatian pension system*



Ivan Tomaš*
Article   |   Year:  2020   |   Pages:  41 - 98   |   Volume:  44   |   Issue:  1
Received:  June 1, 2019   |   Accepted:  September 17, 2019   |   Published online:  March 3, 2020
Download citation        https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.44.1.2       


Figure 1
Total population in Croatia (in millions)
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Figure 2
Total population in Croatia in two different age groups (in millions)
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Figure 3
Total population in Croatia in two different age groups (in millions)
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Figure 4
Net migration in Croatia (in thousands)
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Table 1
Dickey-Fuller test statistics results for random walk and random walk with a drift
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Table 2
Dickey-Fuller statistics and confidence intervals for the data of 16 observations
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Table 3
Parameters in the Lee-Carter model
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Table 4
Dickey-Fuller statistics for newborns per person index
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Figure 5
Autocorrelation function (ACF) for newborns per person index
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Figure 6
Partial autocorrelation function (PACF) for newborns per person index
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Table 5
AR (1) process of newborns per person index
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Figure 7
Stochastic simulation results for newborns per person index
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Figure 8
Stochastic simulation results for newborns per person rates, age group: 15-19
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Figure 9
Stochastic simulation results for newborns per person rates, age group: 30-34
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Figure 10
Stochastic simulation of total newborns per person rates, time horizon: 2017-2060
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Table 6
Parameters for mortality index in the Lee-Carter model
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Table 7
Dickey-Fuller statistics for mortality index
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Figure 11
Mortality index over time
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Figure 12
Mortality rates in the USA for the period of 1930-2017
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Table 8
Dickey-Fuller statistics for mortality index set as a model with linear trend
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Table 9
Estimated parameters for mortality index
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Figure 13
Mortality index simulations
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Figure 14
Simulated results for mortality rates for the first cohort: newborns
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Figure 15
Simulated results for the mortality index for group aged 45-49
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Figure 16
Stochastic forecast of the Croatian population from 2018 to 2060
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Figure 17
Histogram of the Croatian population in 2060 forecast by using the stochastic method on the Leslie model
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Figure 18
Stochastic forecast of the population aged 65+ from 2018 to 2060
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Figure 19
Stochastic forecast of the population aged 15-65 from 2018 to 2060
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Table 10
Proportion of specific age population in cohorts 60-64 and 65-69
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Table 11
Analysis of new pensioners
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Figure 20
PACF for the ratio of new male pensioners to male population aged 65
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Figure 21
PACF for new female pensioners to female population aged 62
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Table 12
AR (1) process for ratio of new female/male pensioners to female/male population aged 62/65
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Figure 22
Stochastic forecast of new male pensioners ratio from 2018 to 2060
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Figure 23
Stochastic forecast of new female pensioners ratio from 2018 to 2060
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Figure 24
Stochastic forecast of the number of pensioners from 2018 to 2060
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Figure 25
Distribution histogram for the number of pensioners in 2060
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Figure 26
Labour force to working age population
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Figure 27
PACF of labour force to working age population ratio
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Table 13
AR (1) process of labour force to working age population ratio
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Figure 28
Stochastic forecast of labour force ratio from 2018 to 2060
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Figure 29
Historical unemployment rate in Croatia
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Figure 30
Forecast of the future unemployment rate: Scenario 1
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Figure 31
Stochastic forecast of the employed population: Scenario 1
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Figure 32
Stochastic forecast of the employed population: Scenario 2
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Figure 33
Stochastic forecast of the employed population: Scenario 3
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Table 14
Average gross salary and growth rates
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Figure 34
PACF of growth rates in wages
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Table 15
AR (1) process for growth rates in wages
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Figure 35
Stochastic forecast for growth rates in wages
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Figure 36
Stochastic forecast of future wages
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Figure 37
Histogram of wage distribution in 2060
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Table 16
Average pension by year and percentage in gross salary
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Figure 38
Stochastic forecast of government net cash flow from the pension system: Scenario 1
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Figure 39
Stochastic forecast of government net cash flow from the pension system: Scenario 2
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Figure 40
Stochastic forecast of government net cash flow from the pension system: Scenario 3
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Figure 41
Expected present value of government future cash flow generated from the pension system: Scenario 3
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Figure 42
Stochastic forecast of government net cash flow with the assumption that pensioners decide to use a combined pension scheme after 2030. Unemployment rate from scenario 1 is used
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Figure 43
Stochastic forecast of government net cash flow with the assumption that pensioners decide to use a combined pension scheme after 2030. Unemployment rate from scenario 3 is used
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Figure 44
Stochastic forecast of government net cash flow with the assumption that the second pillar gains enough competitiveness to cover 50% of expenses after 2040. Scenario 1 unemployment rate is used
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Figure 45
Stochastic forecast of government net cash flow with the assumption that the second pillar gain enough competitiveness to cover 50% of expenses and extra assumption that pension amounts to 35% of gross salary between 2030 and 2040 and 40% of gross salary after 2040. Scenario 1 of unemployment rate is used
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  June, 2020
I/2020
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