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An assessment of the relationship between public debt, government expenditure and revenue in Namibia
Teresia Kaulihowa* 
Article | Year: 2020 | Pages: 331 - 353 | Volume: 44 | Issue: 3 Received: October 1, 2019 | Accepted: February 18, 2020 | Published online: September 1, 2020
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FULL ARTICLE
FIGURES & DATA
REFERENCES
CROSSMARK POLICY
METRICS
LICENCING
PDF
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GVTEX
|
GVTRV
|
PD
|
|
Mean
|
18,034.03
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16,583.59
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12,638.15
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Median
|
11,821.95
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10,164.85
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10,905.09
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Maximum
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65,996.03
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57,844.84
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51,212.00
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Minimum
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2,103.400
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2,031.70
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501.00
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Std. Dev.
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17,659.53
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15,568.84
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12,367.06
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Skewness
|
1.41
|
1.24
|
1.54
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Kurtosis
|
4.02
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3.58
|
5.06
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Jarque-Bera
|
9.78
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7.12
|
14.98
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Probability
|
0.01
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0.02
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0.00
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Sum
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468,884.80
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431,173.4
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328,592.0
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Observations
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37
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37
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37
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Variables
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Deterministic terms
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ADF – levels
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PP- levels
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t-statistic
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t-critical values 5%
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P-values
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t-statistic
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t-critical values 5%
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P-values
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LNPD
|
Intercept
|
-2.3399
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-2.9862
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0.1681
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-2.3899
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-2.9862
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0.1544
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Intercept and constant
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-2.7871
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-3.6032
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0.2143
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-2.7673
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-3.6032
|
0.2210
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LNGVTEX
|
Intercept
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-0.0541
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-2.9862
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0.9443
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-0.0277
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-2.9862
|
0.9472
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|
Intercept and constant
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-1.9387
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-3.6032
|
0.6048
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-2.0739
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-3.6032
|
0.5345
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|
LNGVTRV
|
Intercept
|
-0.1571
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-2.9862
|
0.9321
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-0.0339
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-2.9862
|
0.9465
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|
Intercept and constant
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-3.3305
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-3.6121
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0.0853
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-3.2203
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-3.6032
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0.1032
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Variables
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Deterministic terms
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ADF-1st differencing
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PP -1st differencing
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t-statistic
|
t-critical values
5%
|
P-values
|
t-statistic
|
t- critical values
5%
|
P-values
|
|
∆LNPD
|
Intercept
|
-4.4966
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-2.9918
|
0.0017
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-4.4975
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-2.9919
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0.0017
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Intercept and constant
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-4.5261
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-3.6121
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0.0075
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-4.5417
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-3.6122
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0.0073
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∆LNGVTEX
|
Intercept
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-5.5386
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-2.9918
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0.0001
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-5.5386
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-2.9919
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0.0001
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Intercept and constant
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-5.6049
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-3.6121
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0.0007
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-5.8084
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-3.6122
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0.0004
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∆LNGVTRV
|
Intercept
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-5.1795
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-2.9918
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0.0003
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-5.3697
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-2.9919
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0.0002
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Intercept and constant
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-5.1161
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-3.6121
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0.0021
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-5.3521
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-3.6122
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0.0012
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Lag
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LogL
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LR
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FPE
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AIC
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SC
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HQ
|
|
0
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-10.8620
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NA
|
0.0006
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1.1551
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1.3024
|
1.1942
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1
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85.0330
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159.8252*
|
4.61e-07
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-6.0860
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-5.4970*
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-5.9298*
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2
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94.5717
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13.5131
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4.60e-07*
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-6.1309*
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-5.1001
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-5.8575
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*Indicates the lag order selected by criterion, AIC Source: Authors
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Unrestricted cointegration rank test (Trace &
maximum eigenvalue)
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Hypothesised
no. of CE(s)
|
Eigenvalue
|
Trace
statistics
|
0.05
Critical value
|
P-value
|
Max-eigen
statistic
|
0.05
Critical value
|
P-value
|
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None *
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0.8274
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52.5909
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29.7970
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0.0000
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40.4171
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21.1316
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0.0000
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At
most 1
|
0.3302
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12.1737
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15.4947
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0.1488
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9.2196
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14.2646
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0.2683
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At most
2
|
0.1205
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2.9540
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3.8414
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0.0857
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2.9540
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3.8414
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0.0857
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* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level Source: Authors
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Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
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t-Statistic
|
Prob.
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-2.4355
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0.0171
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Test levels:
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critical
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value
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1%
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-2.6607
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|
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5%
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-1.9550
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|
|
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10%
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-1.6090
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Variable
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
|
t-Statistic
|
Prob.
|
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C
|
0.0547
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0.0170
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3.2204
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0.0028
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D(LNGVTRV)(-1)
|
0.3657
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0.1144
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3.1949
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0.0030
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D(LNPD)(-1)
|
0.1821
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0.0372
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4.8880
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0.0000
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U(-1)
|
-0.4643
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0.1121
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-4.1383
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0.0002
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R-squared
|
0.6140
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Mean dependent
var
|
0.1382
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Adjusted
R-squared
|
0.5800
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S.D. dependent
var
|
0.0880
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S.E. of
regression
|
0.0570
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Akaike info
criterion
|
-2.7903
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Sum squared resid
|
0.1106
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Schwarz criterion
|
-2.6180
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Log likelihood
|
57.0175
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Hannan-Quinn
criterion
|
-2.7290
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F-statistic
|
18.0318
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Durbin-Watson
stat
|
1.4024
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Prob(F-statistic)
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0.0000
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Null
Hypothesis:
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F-Statistic
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Prob.
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LNGVTRV does not Granger Cause LNGVTEX
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4.1288
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0.0254
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LNGVTEX does not
Granger Cause LNGVTRV
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1.2797
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0.2920
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LNPD does not Granger Cause LNGVTEX
|
1.4328
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0.2535
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LNGVTEX does not
Granger Cause LNPD
|
8.9136
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0.0008
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Test
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Null hypotheses
|
Probability
|
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Heteroscedasticity test:
Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey
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No heteroscedasticity
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0.9410
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Breusch-Godfrey serial
correlation LM Test
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No autocorrelation
|
0.7152
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Histogram normality test
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There
is normality
|
0.5467
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September, 2020
III/2020
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