CELEBRATING Celebrating 50
Public Sector Economics

921
Views



85
Downloads

Analysing the impact of migration flows on regional per capita GDP in Türkiye: a spatial panel data approach



Ali Osman Öztop*
   
Tuna Köse*
Article   |   Year:  2026   |   Pages:  259 - 286   |   Volume:  50   |   Issue:  2
Received:  August 28, 2025   |   Accepted:  December 21, 2025   |   Published online:  June 5, 2026
Download citation        https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.50.2.4       


  1. Afonso, A. and Blanco-Arana, M. C., 2024. Does Financial Inclusion Enhance per capita Income in the Least Developed Countries? International Economics, 177, 100479 [CrossRef]

  2. Akbari, A. H. and Haider, A., 2018. Impact of Immigration on Economic Growth in Canada and in its Smaller Provinces. Journal of International Migration and Integration, 19, pp. 129-142 [CrossRef]

  3. Aleksynska, M. and Tritah, A., 2015. The Heterogeneity of Immigrants, Host Countries’ Income and Productivity: A Channel Accounting Approach. Economic Inquiry, 53(1), pp. 150-172 [CrossRef]

  4. Altunç, Ö. F., Uçan, O. and Akyıldız, A., 2017. Dış Göçlerin Türkiye Ekonomisinde İşsizlik Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri: Ekonometrik Bir Analiz (1985-2015). Social Science Studies, 5(1), pp. 197-211. 

  5. Anselin, L., Gallo, J. L. and Jayet, H. 2008. Spatial panel econometrics. In: L. Mátyás and P. Sevestre, eds. The econometrics of panel data: Fundamentals and recent developments in theory and practice. Berlin ; Heidelberg: Springer, pp. 625-660 [CrossRef]

  6. Baltagi, B. H., Song, S. H. and Koh, W., 2003. Testing panel data regression models with spatial error correlation. Journal of Econometrics, 117(1), pp. 123-150 [CrossRef]

  7. Barro, R. and Sala-i-Martin, X., 1992. Regional Growth and Migration: A Japan-United States Comparison. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 6(4), pp. 312-346 [CrossRef]

  8. Barro, R. and Sala-i-Martin, X., 2004. Economic Growth. Cambridge MA: The MIT Press.

  9. Bashier, A. A. and Siam, A. J., 2014. Immigration and Economic Growth in Jordan: FMOLS Approach. International Journal of Humanities Social Sciences and Education (IJHSSE), 1(9), pp.85-92.

  10. Bauer, T. and Zimmermann, K. F., 1999. Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe. IZA Research Report, No. 3.

  11. Bayraktar, Y. and Özyılmaz, A., 2019. Türkiye’de İç Göç ve Ekonomik Büyüme. İş ve Hayat, 5(9), pp. 100-111.

  12. Borjas, G. J., 1999. The Economic Analysis of Immigration. In: O. C. Ashenfelter and D. Card. Handbook of Labor Economics, 3, pp. 1697-1760 [CrossRef]

  13. Borozan, D., 2017. Internal Migration, Regional Economic Convergence, and Growth in Croatia. International Regional Science Review, 40(2), pp. 141-163 [CrossRef]

  14. Boubtane, E., Coulibaly, D. and Rault, C., 2013a. Immigration, Unemployment and GDP in the Host Country: Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries. Economic Modelling, 33, pp. 261-269 [CrossRef]

  15. Boubtane, E., Coulibaly, D. and Rault, C., 2013b. Immigration, Growth, and Unemployment: Panel VAR Evidence from OECD Countries. LABOUR, 27(4), pp. 399-420 [CrossRef]

  16. Boubtane, E., Dumont, J.-C. and Rault, C., 2016. Immigration and Economic Growth in the OECD Countries 1986-2006. Oxford Economic Papers, 68(2), pp. 340-360 [CrossRef]

  17. Brunow, S., Nijkamp, P. and Poot, J., 2015. The Impact of International Migration on Economic Growth in the Global Economy. In: Handbook of the Economics of International Migration, 1, pp. 1027-1075 [CrossRef]

  18. Bunea, D., 2012. Modern Gravity Models of Internal Migration. The case of Romania. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 19(4), pp. 127-144.

  19. Chen, H.-J., 2006. International Migration and Economic Growth: A Source Country Perspective. Journal of Population Economics, 19, pp. 725-748 [CrossRef]

  20. Di Maria, C. and Lazarova, E. A., 2012. Migration, Human Capital Formation, and Growth: An Empirical Investigation. World Development, 40(5), pp. 938-955 [CrossRef]

  21. Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A., 1979. Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), pp. 427-431 [CrossRef]

  22. Docquier, F., Peri, G. and Ruyssen, I., 2014. The Cross-country Determinants of Potential and Actual Migration. International Migration Review, 48(1 suppl), pp. 37-99 [CrossRef]

  23. Dolado, J., Goria, A. and Ichino, A., 1994. Immigration, Human Capital and Growth in the Host Country: Evidence from Pooled Country Data. Journal of Population Economics, 7(2), pp. 193-215 [CrossRef]

  24. Draženović, I., Kunovac, M. and Pripužić, D., 2018. Dynamics and Determinants of Emigration: The Case of Croatia and The Experience of New EU Member States. Public Sector Economics, 42(4), pp. 415-447 [CrossRef]

  25. Etzo, I., 2008. Internal Migration: A Review of the Literature. MPRA Paper, No. 8783. 

  26. Felbermayr, G. J., Hiller, S. and Sala, D., 2010. Does Immigration Boost Per Capita Income? Economics Letters, 107(2), pp. 177-179 [CrossRef]

  27. Foldvari, P., Van Leeuwen, B. and Van Zanden, J. L., 2013. The Contribution of Migration to Economic Development in Holland 1570-1800. De Economist, 161, pp. 1-18 [CrossRef]

  28. Ghatak, S., Mulhern, A. and Watson, J., 2008. Inter‐Regional Migration in Transition Economies: The Case of Poland. Review of Development Economics, 12(1), pp. 209-222 [CrossRef]

  29. Göv, A. and Dürrü, Z., 2017. Göç ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Seçilmiş OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz. International Journal of Economic Studies, 3(4), pp. 491-502.

  30. Greenwood, M. J., 1975. Research on Internal Migration in the United States: A Survey. Journal of Economic Literature, 13(2), pp. 397-433. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2722115

  31. Greenwood, M. J., 1997. Internal Migration in Developed Countries. In: Handbook of Population and Family Economics, 1, pp. 647-720 [CrossRef]

  32. Güner, U. and Yalınız, M., 2013. Immigration and Economic Growth in Europe and their Spatial Allocation. Актуальні Проблеми Економіки, 12, pp. 373-380.

  33. Gür, N., 2017. Ülke Deneyimleri Işığında Uluslararası Göç Ekonomisi. SETA, (224), pp. 1-22.

  34. Huber, P. and Tondl, G., 2012. Migration and Regional Convergence in the European Union. Empirica, 39, pp. 439-460 [CrossRef]

  35. Kang, W., 2018. Issues in the Distribution Dynamics Approach to the Analysis of Regional Economic Growth and Convergence: Spatial Effects and Small Samples. Arizona State University.

  36. Kang, Y. and Kim, B.-Y., 2018. Immigration and Economic Growth: Do Origin and Destination Matter? Applied Economics, 50(46), pp. 4968-4984 [CrossRef]

  37. Kanga, D. [et al.], 2022. The Diffusion of Fintech, Financial Inclusion and Income per capita. The European Journal of Finance, 28(1), pp. 108-136 [CrossRef]

  38. Kapoor, M., Kelejian, H. H. and Prucha, I. R., 2007. Panel data models with spatially correlated error components. Journal of Econometrics, 140(1), pp. 97-130 [CrossRef]

  39. Kelejian, H. H. and Prucha, I. R., 1999. A generalized moments estimator for the autoregressive parameter in a spatial model. International Economic Review, 40(2), pp. 509-533 [CrossRef]

  40. Kelejian, H. H. and Prucha, I. R., 2010. Specification and estimation of spatial autoregressive models with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances. Journal of Econometrics, 157(1), pp. 53-67 [CrossRef]

  41. Kırdar, M. G. and Saracoğlu, D. Ş., 2012. İç Göç, Bölgesel Yakınsama Sorunu ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Örneği. Discussion Paper, No. 2012/75. Ankara: Turkish Economic Association.

  42. Kim, D. W., Yu, J. S. and Hassan, M. K., 2018. Financial Inclusion and Economic Growth in OIC Countries. Research in International Business and Finance, 43, pp. 1-14 [CrossRef]

  43. Lee, L. and Yu, J., 2010a. Estimation of Spatial Autoregressive Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects. Journal of Econometrics, 154(2), pp. 165-185 [CrossRef]

  44. Lee, L. F. and Yu, J., 2010b. Some recent developments in spatial panel data models. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 40(5), pp. 255-271 [CrossRef]

  45. LeSage, J. P. and Fischer, M. M., 2009. Spatial econometric methods for modeling origin-destination flows. In: Handbook of applied spatial analysis: Software tools, methods and applications. Berlin; Heidelberg: Springer, pp. 409-433 [CrossRef]

  46. Lucas, R. E., 1997. Internal Migration in Developing Countries. In: Handbook of Population and Family Economics, 1, pp. 721-798 [CrossRef]

  47. Manavgat, G. and Saygılı, R. F., 2016. Türkiye’de İçgöçü Etkileyen Faktörler Üzerine bir Uygulama: Mekânsal Panel Veri Analizi. 2nd International Conference on Applied Economics and Finance (ICOAEF), pp. 1-26

  48. Mariya, A. and Tritah, A., 2009. Immigration, Income and Productivity of Host Countries: A Channel Accounting Approach. CEPII Working Papers, No. 2009-23.

  49. Marto, M., Lourenço Marques, J. and Madaleno, M., 2022. An Evaluation of the Efficiency of Tertiary Education in the Explanation of the Performance of GDP per Capita Applying Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Sustainability, 14(23), pp. 1-20 [CrossRef]

  50. Morley, B., 2006. Causality between Economic Growth and Immigration: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach. Economics Letters, 90(1), pp. 72-76 [CrossRef]

  51. Nickell, S., 1981. Biases in dynamic models with fixed effects. Econometrica, 49(6), pp. 1417-1426. 

  52. Orefice, G., 2010. Skilled Migration and Economic Performances: Evidence from OECD Countries. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 146(4), pp. 781-820 [CrossRef]

  53. Ortega, F., 2008. The Short-run Effects of a Large Immigration Wave: Spain 1998-2008. Manuscript.Universitat Pompeu Fabra.

  54. Ortega, F. and Peri, G., 2009. The Causes and Effects of International Migrations: Evidence from OECD Countries 1980-2005. NBER Working Paper, No. 14833 [CrossRef]

  55. Özgen, C., Nijkamp, P. and Poot, J., 2010. The Effect of Migration on Income Growth and Convergence: Metaanalytic Evidence. Papers in Regional Science, 89(3), pp. 537-562 [CrossRef]

  56. Öztop, A. O., Köse, T. and Ünlü, Z., 2024. Türkiye’de il düzeyinde GSYİH ve göç arasındaki ilişkinin mekânsal veri analizi ile araştırılması. Academy 2nd International Conference on Migration Studies, pp. 488-296. Rome.

  57. Özyılmaz, A. and Bayraktar, Y., 2021. Internal Migrations as a Driving Force of Regional Disintegration: An Empirical Analysis of NUTS-2 Regions in Turkey. The Journal of Humanity and Society, 11(3), pp. 197-214 [CrossRef]

  58. Peri, G., 2010. The Impact of Immigrants in Recession and Economic Expansion. Washington: Migration Policy Institute.

  59. Pesaran, M. H., 2007. A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), pp. 265-312 [CrossRef]

  60. Piras, G., 2014. Impact Estimates for Static Spatial Panel Data Models in R. Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 7(3), pp. 213-223 [CrossRef]

  61. Pouliakas, K. [et al.], 2009. Modelling the Effects of Immigration on Regional Economic Performance and the Wage Distribution: A CGE Analysis of Three EU Regions. IZA Discussion Paper, No. 4648 [CrossRef]

  62. Presidency of Migration Management, 2024. https://en.goc.gov.tr/

  63. Pu, Y. [et al.], 2019. A spatial dynamic panel approach to modelling the space-time dynamics of interprovincial migration flows in China. Demographic Research, 41, pp. 913-948 [CrossRef]

  64. Ravenstein, E. G., 1885. The Laws of Migration. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 52(2), pp. 241-305 [CrossRef]

  65. Salima, B. A., Julie, L. G. and Lionel, V., 2018. Spatial Econometrics on Panel Data. In Handbook of Spatial Analysis Theory and Practical Application with R, pp. 179-203.

  66. Sonkar, S. and Sarkar, A. K., 2020. Exploring the Direct Relationship between GDP per-capita and Financial Inclusion. Annals of Management and Organization Research, 1(3), pp. 187-202 [CrossRef]

  67. Șerban, A. C. [et al.], 2020. The Impact of EU Immigration on Economic Growth through the Skill Composition Channel. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 26(2), pp. 479-503 [CrossRef]

  68. Sevinç, H. [et al.], 2016. Ekonomik Büyüme ve Göç İlişkisi: Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelere Dayalı Bir Analiz. International Conference on Eurasian Economies, pp. 398-403 [CrossRef]

  69. Ulucan, H., 2022. Türkiye’de Şehirler Arası İç Göç Akımlarını Belirleyen Faktörler: Panel Veri Analizi. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 33(122), pp. 45-65 [CrossRef]

  70. Vakulenko, E., 2014. Does Migration Lead to Regional Convergence in Russia? Higher School of Economics Research Paper, No. WP BRP, 53 [CrossRef]

  71. Yürük, B. and Batmaz, T., 2023. İç Göç ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Mekansal Analizi: Türkiye Örneği (2008-2020). Academic Review of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 16(3), pp. 763-785 [CrossRef]

  72. Zhang, K. H. and Song, S., 2003. Rural-urban Migration and Urbanization in China: Evidence from Time-series and Cross-section Analyses. China Economic Review, 14(4), pp. 386-400 [CrossRef]

  June, 2026
II/2026

In order to give you a better user experience, cookies have been stored on your computer.
Accept cookie     More information