Are taxes too high? A machine-learning approach to Laffer curve estimation
https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.50.2.5 | Published online: June 5, 2026 Figure 1
Common used function forms for the Laffer curve Table 1
Summary table of the dependent variables Table 2
Summary table of the tax rates Table 3
Summary table of the independent variables Figure 2
Examples of functional forms for different values of the parameters α, β, δ Table 4
PIT, estimated effect of a 1 percentage point increase in the average tax wedge11 Figure 3
Personal income tax, the estimated Laffer curves by country, 2019 (% of GDP) Figure 4
Personal income tax: decomposition of the effect of raising the average tax wedge by 1 percentage point on the tax revenue on GDP ratio Table 5
CIT, estimated effect of a 1 percentage point increase in the tax rate12 Figure 5
Corporate income tax, the estimated Laffer curves by country (% of GDP) Figure 6
Corporate income tax, decomposition of the effect of raising the average tax wedge by 1 percentage point on the tax revenue on GDP ratio Table 6
VAT, estimated effect of a 1 percentage point increase in the average tax rate13 Figure 7
Value added tax, the estimated Laffer curves by country (% of GDP) Figure 8
Value added tax, decomposition of the effect of raising the average tax rate by 1 percentage point on the tax revenue on GDP ratio Table 7
CIT, Estimated effect of a 1 percentage point tax rate increase across models16 Figure 9
CIT, the estimated Laffer curves across models for selected countries (% of GDP) This is an Open Access article distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC-BY-NC) which permits non commercial use and redistribution, as long as you give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made.
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