Do increases in public sector wages affect inflation?
https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.49.1.1 | Published online: March 10, 2025 Graph 1
Wages, productivity and inflation Note: Prices are measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). Wages aremeasured by compensation of employees per employee from national accounts statistics, productivity
is calculated as the ratio of real GDP to the number of employees from national accounts. Source: Eurostat. Graph 2
Annual wage growth and HICP inflation in the public sector and the overall economy (%) Table 1
Identification restrictions
Graph 3
Shock dependent cumulative wage-to-price multipliers Graph 4
Relative importance of shocks in wage dynamics (2-year moving average) Source: Author. Graph 5
Time-varying correlation between wage growth and inflation (2-year moving average) Graph 6
Cumulative response of public sector services HICP to a one-standard-deviation wage mark-up shock in public sector Graph 7
Cumulative response of wages to a one-standard-deviation wage mark-up shock Graph 8
Estimated potential effect of public sector wage growth on headline inflation in 2024 (pp) Note: The total effect was calculated using the formula: HIPCttotal = HIPCtdirect + HIPCtindirect, where the total potential indirect effect is given by: HIPCtindirect = αADHIPCtADindirect + αWHIPCtW_indirect. This was calculated under different, mutually exclusive assumptions related to αAD. Source: Author. Graph 9
Range of estimated effects across different economy-wide model specifications (pp) Graph 10
Unconditional correlation between public and private sector wage growth Source: CBS, author. Table A1
Data and data sources, 2004-2023
Table A2
Part of the bridging matrices related to the human health services
Graph A1
HICP for human health services and associated subcomponents Graph A2
Impulse response functions Graph A3
Impulse response functions Graph A4
Impulse response functions Graph A5
Shock dependent wage-to-price multipliers Graph A6
Cumulative response of public sector prices to a one-standard-deviation wage mark-up shock Graph A7
Estimated potential effect of public sector wage growth on headline inflation in 2024 (pp) Graph A8
Impulse response functions Graph A9
Shock dependent wage-to-price multipliers Graph A10
Cumulative response of public sector prices to a one-standard-deviation wage mark-up shock Graph A11
Estimated potential effect of public sector wage growth on headline inflation in 2024 (pp) Graph A12
Impulse response functions Graph A13
Shock-dependent wage-to-price multipliers Graph A14
Cumulative response of public sector prices to a one-standard-deviation wage mark-up shock Graph A15
Estimated potential effect of public sector wage growth on headline inflation in 2024 (pp) Graph A16
Graph A16 Impulse response functions Graph A17
Shock-dependent wage-to-price multipliers Graph A18
Cumulative response of public sector prices to a one-standard-deviation wage mark-up shock Graph A19
Estimated potential effect of public sector wage growth on headline inflation in 2024 (pp) Graph A20
Impulse response functions Graph A21
Shock-dependent wage-to-price multipliers Graph A22
Cumulative response of public sector prices to a one-standard-deviation wage mark-up shock Graph A23
Estimated potential effect of public sector wage growth on headline inflation in 2024 (pp) Graph A24
Historical decomposition of nominal wages Clicking on the Crossmark logo will tell you the current status of a document and may also give you additional publication record information about the document. For more details see IPF Crossmark policy page. |
March, 2025 I/2025 |




