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Dynamics and determinants of emigration: the case of Croatia and the experience of new EU member states
Ivana Draženović*
Ivana Draženović
Affiliation: Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education – Economics Institute, Prague, Czech Republic
 0000-0002-6738-1288
Marina Kunovac* 
Article | Year: 2018 | Pages: 415 - 447 | Volume: 42 | Issue: 4 Received: June 1, 2018 | Accepted: November 4, 2018 | Published online: December 14, 2018
|
FULL ARTICLE
FIGURES & DATA
REFERENCES
CROSSMARK POLICY
METRICS
LICENCING
PDF
Notes: Eastern Croatia encompasses Virovitičko-podravska, Požeško-slavonska, Brodskoposavska, Osječko-baranjska and Vukovarsko-srijemska counties. Central Croatia encompasses Zagrebačka, Sisačko-moslavačka, Karlovačka and Bjelovarsko-bilogorska counties. Lika and Gorski kotar encompass Primorsko-goranska and Ličko-senjska counties. Central and Southern Adriatic encompass Zadarska, Šibensko-kninska, Splitsko-dalmatinska and Dubrovačkoneretvanska counties. Northen Adriatic refers to Istarska County. Northwestern Croatia encompass Krapinsko-zagorska, Varaždinska, Međimurska and Koprivničko-križevačka counties. Source: CBS.
Note: The size of the circles correspond to the emigration rate, as % of total population of the county. Source: CBS.
Note: * Germany and Italy lifted transitional provisions for Croatia in 2015. ** UK and Austria are applying transitional provisions until June 2018, with possible extension until 2020. Source: CBS.
Note: Official Central Bureau of Statistics emigration number for emigration in EU 27. Core EU countries are represented by 11 countries, due to data availability: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sweden and United Kingdom, in thousands. Source: CBS, national statistical offices of the core EU countries.
Sources: CBS, national statistical offices and Eurostat; authors’ calculations.
|
Origin Country
|
Top 3 emigration destinations in EU, as % of total EU emigration
|
|
Bulgaria
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
|
Croatia
|
Germany, 71
|
Austria, 8
|
Ireland, 7
|
|
Czech Republic
|
Slovakia, 60
|
Germany, 9
|
Poland, 6
|
|
Estonia
|
Finland, 63
|
United Kingdom, 8
|
Germany, 7
|
|
Hungary
|
Germany, 32
|
Austria, 27
|
United Kingdom, 17
|
|
Latvia
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
|
Lithuania
|
United Kingdom, 60
|
Ireland, 11
|
Germany, 10
|
|
Poland
|
Germany, 43
|
United Kingdom, 28
|
Netherlands, 8
|
|
Romaniaa
|
Spain, 24
|
Germany, 17
|
Italy, 16
|
|
Slovakia
|
Czech Republic, 38
|
Austria, 27
|
Germany, 10
|
|
Slovenia
|
Germany, 27
|
Austria, 27
|
Croatia, 12
|
a Percentage of total emigration. Sources: CBS, national statistical offices and Eurostat.
Note: Dashed lines denote the years of EU accession. Source: National statistical offices of the core EU countries.
Source: National statistical offices of the core EU countries.
Source: Eurostat and national statistical offices of the core EU countries.
|
|
Model
1
(Baseline) FE
|
Model
1
(Baseline) PPML
|
Model
2
FE
|
Model
2
PPML
|
|
Distance
|
-
|
-1.48***
|
-
|
-1.54***
|
|
-
|
(0.00)
|
-
|
(0.00)
|
|
Population
|
0.59
|
1.41
|
0.99**
|
5.85***
|
|
(0.17)
|
(0.35)
|
(0.02)
|
(0.00)
|
|
GDP PC in PPS (origin)
|
0.11
|
0.27
|
|
|
|
(0.59)
|
(0.46)
|
|
|
|
GDP PC in PPS (destination)
|
1.55
|
2.15**
|
|
|
|
(0.00)
|
(0.01)
|
|
|
|
Transitional provisions
|
0.54
|
0.34***
|
0.46***
|
0.46***
|
|
(0.00)
|
(0.00)
|
(0.00)
|
(0.00)
|
|
Employment rate (origin)
|
|
|
-1.45***
|
-5.04***
|
|
|
(0.00)
|
(0.00)
|
|
Employment rate (destination)
|
|
|
1.2*
|
8.15***
|
|
|
(0.06)
|
(0.00)
|
|
Output gap (origin)
|
|
|
-2.27***
|
3.07
|
|
|
(0.00)
|
(0.2)
|
|
Output gap (destination)
|
|
|
3.74***
|
2.03**
|
|
|
(0.00)
|
(0.04)
|
|
Corruption index (origin)
|
|
|
0.03
|
-1.66***
|
|
|
(0.89)
|
(0.00)
|
|
Corruption index (destination)
|
|
|
3.78***
|
2.46*
|
|
|
(0.00)
|
(0.09)
|
|
Share of youth (20-34) origin
|
|
|
1.5***
|
0.19
|
|
|
(0.00)
|
(0.8)
|
|
Share of tertiary educated
(origin)
|
|
|
0.25
|
0.58*
|
|
|
(0.14)
|
(0.07)
|
|
Cons
|
-11.91
|
0.23
|
-13.65
|
5.51
|
|
Number of observations
|
1958
|
1972
|
1958
|
1972
|
|
R2
|
0.46
|
0.78
|
0.53
|
0.82
|
Note: *, ** and *** refer to 10%, 5% and 1% statistical significance levels, respectively. P-values are in parenthesis. All specifications include origin and destination fixed effects dummies. Parameters associated to output gap for origin and destination country are multiplied by 100 since the output gap enters the model specification in levels instead of being transformed into logarithms, due to negative values. Source: Authors’ elaboration based on national statistical offices of the core EU countries immigration data and on the data presented appendix 1.
|
Data Sources and details for set of independent
variables
|
|
Variable
|
Description
|
Source
|
Estimation
details
|
|
GDP PC in PPS
|
Gross domestic product at market prices, current
prices, PPS per capita
|
Eurostat online statistical database
|
Destination and origin country, in log
|
|
Unemployment
rate
|
Yearly unemployment rates, from 15 to 64 years,
percentage
|
Eurostat online statistical database
|
Destination and origin country, in log
|
|
Population
|
Population on 1 January, total
|
Eurostat online statistical database
|
Relative values between destination and origin
country, in log
|
|
Distance
|
Distance between two countries is calculated
based on latitudes and longitudes of the most important cities/agglomerations
(in terms of population). Mayer and Zignago (2011)
|
CEPII database
|
In log
|
|
Youth population number
|
Population on 1 January, from 20 to 34 years
|
Eurostat online statistical database
|
Origin country, as a share in total population,
in log
|
|
Tertiary educated
|
Population by educational attainment level,
from 15 to 64 years, tertiary education (levels 5-8)
|
Eurostat online statistical database
|
Origin country, as a share in total population,
*1000, in log
|
|
Corruption index
|
Control of corruption captures perceptions of
the extent to which public power is exercised for private gain, including both
petty and grand forms of corruption, as well as "capture" of the state
by elites and private interests link
|
Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), The World
Bank
|
Destination and origin country, in log
|
|
Governance index
|
Government effectiveness captures perceptions
of the quality of public services, the quality of the civil service and the degree
of its independence from political pressures, the quality of policy formulation
and implementation, and the credibility of the government's commitment to such
policies link
|
Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), The World
Bank
|
Destination and origin country, in log
|
|
Output gap
|
Output Gaps (% of potential output), HP filter
|
European Commission CIRCAB, II. autum forecast
|
Destination and origin country
|
|
Employment rates
|
Yearly employment rates, from 15 to 64 years,
percentage
|
Eurostat online statistical database
|
Destination and origin country, in log
|
|
Transitional Provisions
|
Variable representing the access to common free
EU market for BG and RO takes value 1 for FI, SE from 2007, for DK from 2009,
for IT and IE from 2012 and for all other countries from 2014. Variable representing
the access to common free EU market for HR takes value 1 for DK, FI, IR, SE from
2013, for BE, IT, DE, LU from 2015, while NL, AT and UK apply transitional provisions
for HR during the entire sample period (sample is ending in 2016, while transitional
provisions applied by NL, AT and UK should be lifted by June 2018). Variable representing
the access to common free EU market for CZ, SK, SI, PL, HU, LV, LT, EE takes value
1 for UK, SE, IE from 2004, for IT, FI from 2006, for NL, LU from 2007, for BE,
DK from 2009 and for AT, DE from 2011
|
European Commission
|
Set of dummy variables
|
|
Data Sources and details for set of
independent variables
|
|
Variable
|
Description
|
Source
|
Estimation
details
|
|
Emigration flows
|
Data for IR, NL, FI, SE, IT, AT, LU, DK avaliable
on line. Data for DE, BE, UK, obtained on email request. Data for UK and IE refers
to immigration numbers and not to official migration statistics.
|
National Statistical Offices websites of core
EU countries
|
For static models - emigration from origin country
i into destination country j in time t, for dynamic model - share of emigrants
in total population of origin country, in log
|
|
Data for Germany and Denmark are based on country
of previous residence principle. Data for Netherlands, Italy, United Kingdom,
and Belgium on country of birth principle, while data for Sewwden, Finland, Luxemburg
and Austria are based on citizenship principle.
|
|
Core EU countries are represented by 11 countries,
due to data availability: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Ireland,
Italy, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Sweden and United Kingdom. Usually Portugal, Greece,
Portugal, Spain and France are also included in core EU countries. Required immigration
data are not publicaly available on their website. Statistical office of Portugal
delivered the data from our customized request. Since data are starting in 2008
we do not include them in main specifications. Upon conclusion of this paper we
have not managed to receive required data from customized requests sent to other
statistical offices.
|
|
Emigration
from and to Croatia following the EU accession
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2013-2016
|
|
(1) Emigration to core EU countries from national statistical
offices of core EU countries
|
31,655
|
53,666
|
72,528
|
71,314
|
229,163
|
|
(2) Emigration to "rest of the world"
according to CBS
|
11,220
|
9,049
|
11,116
|
9,238
|
40,623
|
|
(3) Total emigration = (1) + (2)
|
42,875
|
62,715
|
83,644
|
80,552
|
269,786
|
|
(4) CNB total emigration
|
15,262
|
20,858
|
29,651
|
36,436
|
102,207
|
|
(5) Emigration coefficient
|
2.8
|
3.0
|
2.8
|
2.2
|
2.6
|
|
(6) Immigration from core EU countries according to national
statistical offices
of core EU countries
|
14,164
|
19,346
|
23,261
|
23,422
|
80,193
|
|
(7) Immigration from "rest of the world"
according to CBS
|
8,676
|
8,540
|
8,512
|
9,705
|
35,433
|
|
(8) Total immigration = (6) + (7)
|
22,840
|
27,886
|
31,773
|
33,127
|
115,626
|
|
(9) CBS total immigration
|
10,378
|
10,638
|
11,706
|
13,985
|
46,707
|
|
(10) Immigration coefficient
|
2.2
|
2.6
|
2.7
|
2.4
|
2.5
|
|
(11) Net emigration = (3) - (8)
|
20,035
|
34,829
|
51,871
|
47,425
|
154,160
|
|
(12) CNB net emigration
|
4,884
|
10,220
|
17,945
|
22,451
|
55,500
|
|
(13) Net emigration coefficient
|
4.1
|
3.4
|
2.9
|
2.1
|
2.8
|
Note: UK and Ireland not included in immigration numbers. Source: CBS and national statistical offices of the core EU countries.
|
|
MoModel
3 Dynamic Model (GMM)
|
|
Distance
|
-0.49***
|
|
(0.00)
|
|
Population
|
0.29
|
|
(0.59)
|
|
Transitional provisions
|
0.25***
|
|
(0.00)
|
|
Employment rate (origin)
|
-2.01***
|
|
(0.00)
|
|
Employment rate (destination)
|
0.53
|
|
(0.47)
|
|
Output gap (origin)
|
3.72
|
|
(0.36)
|
|
Output gap (destination)
|
2.18***
|
|
(0.00)
|
|
Corruption index (origin)
|
-0.37
|
|
(0.40)
|
|
Corruption index (destination)
|
0.57
|
|
(0.55)
|
|
Share of youth (20-34) origin
|
-0.32
|
|
(0.59)
|
|
Share of tertiary educated (origin)
|
0.35
|
|
(0.12)
|
|
ln(m t-1)
|
0.66***
|
|
(0.00)
|
|
Cons
|
7.4
|
Note: *, ** and *** refer to 10%, 5% and 1% statistical significance levels, respectively. P-values are in parenthesis. All specifications include origin and destination fixed effects dummies. Parameters associated to output gap for origin and destination country are multiplied by 100 since the output gap enters the model specification in levels instead of being transformed into logarithms, due to negative values.Source: Authors’ elaboration based on national statistical offices of the core EU countries immigration data and on the data presented in appendix 1.
|
|
Model 4 FE
|
Model 4 PPML
|
|
Distance
|
-
|
-1.52***
|
|
-
|
(0.00)
|
|
Population
|
1.69***
|
6.63***
|
|
(0.00)
|
(0.00)
|
|
Transitional provisions
|
0.47***
|
0.42***
|
|
(0.00)
|
(0.00)
|
|
Unemployment rate (origin)
|
0.19**
|
0.69***
|
|
(0.03)
|
(0.00)
|
|
Unemployment rate (destination)
|
-0.03
|
-1.09***
|
|
(0.66)
|
(0.00)
|
|
Output gap (origin)
|
2.18**
|
1.53
|
|
(0.01)
|
(0.34)
|
|
Output gap (destination)
|
4.64***
|
2.52*
|
|
(0.00)
|
(0.09)
|
|
Governance index (origin)
|
-0.22
|
-2.29***
|
|
(0.52)
|
(0.00)
|
|
Governance index (destination)
|
0.89
|
-2.71
|
|
(0.11)
|
(0.40)
|
|
Share of youth (20-34) origin
|
1.71***
|
1.34
|
|
(0.00)
|
(0.11)
|
|
Share of tertiary educated (origin)
|
0.41**
|
0.69**
|
|
(0.02)
|
(0.01)
|
|
Cons
|
-1.04
|
42.2**
|
|
Number of observations
|
1958
|
1972
|
|
R2
|
0.51
|
0.82
|
Note: *, ** and *** refer to 10%, 5% and 1% statistical significance levels, respectively. P-values are in parenthesis. All specifications include origin and destination fixed effects dummies. Parameters associated to output gap for origin and destination country are multiplied by 100 since the output gap enters the model specification in levels instead of being transformed into logarithms, due to negative values. Source: Authors’ elaboration based on national statistical offices of the core EU countries immigration data and on the data presented in appendix 1.
|
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
|
Eastern Croatia
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.3
|
0.2
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.2
|
0.4
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.4
|
0.6
|
1.0
|
1.4
|
|
Central Croatia
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.4
|
0.3
|
0.5
|
0.6
|
0.8
|
1.0
|
|
Lika and Gorski kotar
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.4
|
0.6
|
0.9
|
1.0
|
|
Central and Southern Adriatic
|
0.1
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.3
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
0.6
|
0.7
|
|
Northen Adriatic
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.2
|
0.5
|
0.4
|
0.3
|
0.4
|
0.6
|
0.7
|
|
Northwestern Croatia
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.3
|
0.4
|
0.6
|
|
City of Zagreb
|
0.2
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.2
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.4
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
Notes: Eastern Croatia encompasses Virovitičko-podravska, Požeško-slavonska, Brodsko-posavska, Osječko-baranjska and Vukovarsko-srijemska counties. Central Croatia encompasses Zagrebačka, Sisačko-moslavačka, Karlovačka and Bjelovarsko-bilogorska counties. Lika and Gorski kotar encompass Primorsko-goranska and Ličko-senjska counties. Central and Southern Adriatic encompass Zadarska, Šibensko-kninska, Splitsko-dalmatinska and Dubrovačko-neretvanska counties. Northen Adriatic refers to Istarska County. Northwestern Croatia encompass Krapinsko-zagorska, Varaždinska, Međimurska and Koprivničko-križevačka counties. Source: CBS.
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December, 2018
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