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Economic uncertainty and its impact on the Croatian economy
Petar Sorić* 
Ivana Lolić*
Ivana Lolić
Affiliation: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
 0000-0003-3112-7699
Article | Year: 2017 | Pages: 443 - 477 | Volume: 41 | Issue: 4 Received: June 1, 2017 | Accepted: October 30, 2017 | Published online: December 11, 2017
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| BBD | polit | PI6 | R_index | nature | score | dis_7 | dis_8 | oil | ind* | int* | STOXX600 | int | rwage | HICP | ind | BBD | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | polit | 0.57 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PI6 | 0.08 | -0.17 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | R_index | 0.71 | 0.38 | 0.25 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | nature | -0.07 | 0.04 | -0.06 | 0.14 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | score | 0.88 | 0.60 | 0.32 | 0.89 | 0.20 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | dis_7 | 0.19 | -0.20 | 0.62 | 0.48 | 0.30 | | 1 | | | | | | | | | | dis_8 | 0.05 | -0.01 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 1 | | | | | | | | | oil | -0.30 | -0.46 | 0.12 | -0.15 | 0.24 | -0.23 | 0.35 | 0.07 | 1 | | | | | | | | ind* | 0.25 | 0.28 | -0.49 | -0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | -0.82 | -0.03 | 0.11 | 1 | | | | | | | int* | -0.54 | -0.48 | -0.35 | -0.52 | -0.13 | -0.67 | -0.60 | -0.23 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 1 | | | | | | STOXX600 | 0.19 | 0.33 | -0.25 | -0.04 | 0.01 | 0.07 | -0.63 | 0.19 | -0.23 | 0.69 | 0.05 | 1 | | | | | int | -0.48 | -0.35 | -0.04 | -0.35 | -0.25 | -0.50 | -0.15 | -0.24 | -0.08 | -0.52 | 0.64 | -0.46 | 1 | | | | rwage | -0.28 | -0.17 | -0.35 | -0.42 | -0.26 | -0.46 | -0.04 | -0.30 | -0.46 | -0.11 | 0.45 | -0.29 | 0.55 | 1 | | | HICP | 0.65 | 0.54 | 0.21 | 0.63 | 0.14 | 0.74 | 0.43 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.34 | -0.74 | 0.03 | -0.78 | -0.73 | 1 | | ind | -0.37 | -0.08 | -0.53 | -0.57 | -0.20 | -0.58 | -0.64 | -0.26 | -0.26 | 0.17 | 0.69 | 0.11 | 0.52 | 0.71 | -0.67 | 1 |
Source: Authors’ calculations
Uncertainty indicator
unc | STOXX600 | oil | ind* | int* | unc | int | rwage | HICP | ind | BBD | 0.25 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.36 | polit | 0.24 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.37 | PI6 | 0.26 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.34 | R_index | 0.23 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.34 | nature | 0.25 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.36 | score | 0.25 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.36 | dis_7 | 0.12 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.33 | dis_8 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.34 |
Keywords | Logical conjunction I | Logical conjunction II | economy
economic | prime minister
minister
parliament
Croatian National Bank
CNB
European Central Bank
ECB
International Monetary Fund
IMF
European Commission
EC | uncertainty
uncertain
not certain
risk
risky
non-reliable
not reliable |
Keywords | Logical conjunction | economy
economic | recession
crisis |
Keywords | Logical conjunction | elections
electoral
dismissal
dismissed
migrant
asylum
Schengen
trial
accusation
accused
investigation
investigated
corruption
corruptive
corrupt
affair
prison
custody | prime minister
president
minister
Parliament
Croatian National Bank
CNB
European Central Bank
ECB
International Monetary Fund
IMF
European Commission
EC |
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Keywords
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Logical conjunction
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flood
hail
drought
earthquake
epidemic
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Croatia
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Keywords
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Logical negation
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tax
|
dismissal
dismissed
appointment
appointed
municipality
city
county
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Variable | Description | Time span | Source | int | 3-month money market interest rate (ZIBOR) | 2002 M11 – 2016 M12 | Eurostat | rwage | Real net wage; 2010=100; deflated by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices | Eurostat | HICP | 2010=100; all categories of goods included | Eurostat | ind | Industrial production index; 2010.=100 | Eurostat | STOXX600 | Stock index of 600 companies from 17 developed European economies | Thomson Reuters database | oil | Brent Europe; in USD | U.S. Energy Information Administration | ind* | Industrial production index; 2010.=100 | Eurostat | int* | 3-month money market interest rate (EURIBOR) | Eurostat | BBD, R_index, PI6, nature and polit | Uncertainty indicators | 2002 M11 – 2016 M12 | Authors’ calculation | dis_4, dis_7 and dis_8 | Disagreement indicators | 2005 M05 – 2016 M12 | European Commission | dis_agr | 2008 M05 – 2016 M12 | European Commission |
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December, 2017
IV/2017
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