Evaluation of macroeconomic outcomes and the seven-year membership of Croatia in the European Union
https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.46.1.1 | Published online: March 8, 2022 Figure 1
Results of synthetic control method for GDP pc and aggregate demand components Note: All series are expressed in per capita terms (in thousands, constant 2010 US$). Source: Author. Figure 2
Difference in GDP pc and aggregate demand components after Croatia’s accession to the EU (in percent) Note: The percentage difference between real and synthetic value, where a positive (negative) value indicates that the real series is greater than (smaller than) the synthetic series by that percentage. Source: Author’s calculation based on results of synthetic control method estimations. Figure 3
Results of mutual movement synthetic and real line with the same base (2013=100) Note: The mutual movement is based on an index with a common base 2013=100. Changes after 2013 show the movement of the Croatian series and its estimated synthetic controls. Divergence between two lines is seen as changes that occurred after joining the EU. Source: Author’s calculation based on results of synthetic control method estimations. Figure 4
Results of synthetic control method for income and savings Note: Income was originally expressed in absolute per capita terms (in thousands, constant 2010 US$). Savings were originally expressed in percentage of GDP. Source: Author. Figure 5
Difference in income and savings after Croatia’s accession to the EU (in percent) Note: Income was originally modelled in absolute terms (constant 2010 US$) and it is graphically expressed as the percentage difference between real and synthetic value, where a positive (negative) value indicates that the real series is greater than (smaller than) the synthetic series by that percentage. Savings were originally expressed in percentage of GDP and graphically expressed as the simple difference between the real and synthetic value. Source: Author’s calculation based on results of synthetic control method estimations. Figure 6
Results of mutual movement of synthetic and real line with same base (2013=100) Note: The mutual movement is based on an index with a common base 2013=100. Changes after 2013 show the movement of the Croatian series and its estimated synthetic controls. Divergence between two lines is seen as changes that occurred after joining the EU. Source: Author’s calculation based on results of synthetic control method estimations. Figure 7
Results of synthetic control method for labour productivity, productivity in industry, agriculture and services Note: Labour productivity is expressed as GDP per employee (in thousands, constant 2017 PPP $) while sectoral productivity i.e., industry, agriculture and services is expressed in per capita value added (in thousands, constant 2010 US$). Source: Author. Figure 8
Difference in labour productivity, productivity in industry, agriculture and services after Croatia’s accession to the EU (in percent) Note: The percentage difference between real and synthetic value, where a positive (negative) value indicates that the real series is greater than (smaller than) the synthetic series by that percentage. Source: Author’s calculation based on results of synthetic control method estimations. Figure 9
Results of mutual movement synthetic and real line with same base (2013=100) Note: The mutual movement is based on an index with a common base 2013=100. Changes after 2013 show the movement of the Croatian series and its estimated synthetic controls. Divergence between two lines is seen as changes that occurred after joining the EU. Source: Author’s calculation based on results of synthetic control method estimations. Figure 10
Results of the in-space placebo study (all macroeconomic indicators) Note: Black line represents the difference (effects) between actual and synthetic Croatia and shows the estimated impact of EU’s accession while the grey lines represent the estimated placebo effects for each country in the sample. Source: Author. Figure 11
Results of the in-time placebo study (all macroeconomic indicators) Source: Author. Table 1
Results of the random donor samples (1,000 replications) (all macroeconomic indicators) after Croatia’s accession to the EU % effects
* Best pre-treatment fit contains estimates obtained by random sampling that have the root mean squared prediction error (pre-RMSPE) lower than our baseline estimates. Note: The percentage difference as a percent effect is the percentage difference between real and synthetic value, where a positive (negative) value indicates that the real series is greater than (smaller than) the synthetic series by that percentage. Mean (%) is the average of the calculated effects, median (%) is also based on the percentage difference. Source: Author´s calculation. Table 2
Results of difference in differences estimation GDP product and aggregate demand components
Income and savings
Labour productivity, industry, agriculture and services value added
Note: All variables are expressed in original per capita terms and then expressed in logarithmic value, exception was made for savings which is expressed in percentage of GDP. The estimate is based on a total sample of 29 countries. *** represents significance at 1%, * represents significance at 10%. In parentheses are robust standard errors. Source: Author. Table A1
Variables of macroeconomic indicators and its covariates
Source: World Bank, WDI (accessed 5 April 2021), Bruegel database (accessed 5 April 2021). Table A2
Pre-EU predictor characteristic for all macroeconomic indicators and its compositions of country weighs of donor units Figure A1
Synthetic control method for export List of countries for random donor sample: Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Azerbaijan, The Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus, Belize, Benin, Bermuda, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei Darussalam, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Central African Republic, Chad, Chile, China, Colombia, Comoros, Congo Dem. Rep., Congo Rep., Costa Rica, Cote d’Ivoire, Cuba, Djibouti, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt Arab Rep., El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Fiji, Gabon, The Gambia, Georgia, Ghana, Grenada, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Hong Kong SAR China, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Iran Islamic Rep., Iraq, Israel, Jamaica, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kiribati, Korea Rep., Kuwait, Kyrgyz Republic, Lao PDR, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Macao SAR China, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali, Marshall Islands, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mexico, Micronesia Fed. Sts., Moldova, Mongolia, Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Nepal, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, North Macedonia, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Palau, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Puerto Rico, Qatar, Russian Federation, Rwanda, Samoa, Sao Tome and Principe, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Somalia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Sudan, Suriname, Switzerland, Syrian Arab Republic, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Togo, Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United States, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, Venezuela RB, Vietnam, Yemen Rep., Zambia, Zimbabwe. (Accessed 1.10.2021). Source: Author Figure 1 Results of synthetic control method for GDP pc and aggregate demand components DISPLAY Figure Figure 2 Difference in GDP pc and aggregate demand components after Croatia’s accession to the EU (in percent) DISPLAY Figure Figure 3 Results of mutual movement synthetic and real line with the same base (2013=100) DISPLAY Figure Figure 4 Results of synthetic control method for income and savings DISPLAY Figure Figure 5 Difference in income and savings after Croatia’s accession to the EU (in percent) DISPLAY Figure Figure 6 Results of mutual movement of synthetic and real line with same base (2013=100) DISPLAY Figure Figure 7 Results of synthetic control method for labour productivity, productivity in industry, agriculture and services DISPLAY Figure Figure 8 Difference in labour productivity, productivity in industry, agriculture and services after Croatia’s accession to the EU (in percent) DISPLAY Figure Figure 9 Results of mutual movement synthetic and real line with same base (2013=100) DISPLAY Figure Figure 10 Results of the in-space placebo study (all macroeconomic indicators) DISPLAY Figure Figure 11 Results of the in-time placebo study (all macroeconomic indicators) DISPLAY Figure Table 1 Results of the random donor samples (1,000 replications) (all macroeconomic indicators) after Croatia’s accession to the EU % effects DISPLAY Table Table 2 Results of difference in differences estimation DISPLAY Table Table A1 Variables of macroeconomic indicators and its covariates DISPLAY Table Table A2 Pre-EU predictor characteristic for all macroeconomic indicators and its compositions of country weighs of donor units DISPLAY Table Figure A1 Synthetic control method for export DISPLAY Figure |
March, 2022 I/2022 |
