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Fertility and population policy
Mehmet S. Tosun* 
Mehmet S. Tosun
Affiliation: University of Nevada, Reno, Department of Economics, College of Business, University of Nevada-Reno, USA
 0000-0002-7034-6838
Correspondence
tosun@unr.edu
Jingjing Yang*
Jingjing Yang
Affiliation: University of Nevada, Reno, Department of Economics, College of Business, University of Nevada-Reno, USA
0000-0001-7566-8089
Article | Year: 2018 | Pages: 21 - 43 | Volume: 42 | Issue: 1 Received: February 14, 2017 | Accepted: December 28, 2017 | Published online: March 8, 2018
|
FULL ARTICLE
FIGURES & DATA
REFERENCES
CROSSMARK POLICY
METRICS
LICENCING
PDF
Dependent variable: | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | Change in total fertility rate | SAR | SAR | SAR | SEM | OLS | Variables: | Direct | Indirect | Total | | | Anti-fertility policy | -0.0205*** | -0.116* | -0.136* | -0.0183*** | -0.0317*** | (0.0067) | (0.0670) | (0.0709) | (0.0066) | (0.0081) | GDP per capita
($ thousand) | 0.00352*** | 0.0195** | 0.0230** | 0.00355** | 0.00803*** | (0.001) | (0.01) | (0.01) | (0.002) | (0.002) | Health spending
per capita ($ thousand) | -0.0128*** | -0.0733* | -0.0861** | -0.0120*** | -0.00817** | (0.004) | (0.04) | (0.042) | (0.004) | (0.004) | Trade to GDP | 0.000259** | 0.00146 | 0.00172 | 0.000265** | 0.000255** | (0.0001) | (0.0010) | (0.0011) | (0.0001) | (0.0001) | Share of urban
population | 0.00323*** | 0.0176** | 0.0209*** | 0.00324*** | 0.00725*** | (0.0009) | (0.0076) | (0.0080) | (0.0010) | (0.0009) | Spatial parameter
(rho) | 25.00*** | | | | | (1.1740) | | | | | Spatial parameter
(lambda) | | | | 25.78*** | | | | | | | Constant | | | | | -0.514*** | | | | | (0.0529) | Observations | 798 | 798 | 798 | 798 | 798 | Number of countries | 133 | 133 | 133 | 133 | 133 | Econometric model | SAR | SAR | SAR | SEM | FE | Country and time fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
|
Dependent variable
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
(4)
|
(5)
|
|
Change in total fertility rate
|
SAR
|
SAR
|
SAR
|
SEM
|
OLS
|
|
Variables
|
Direct
|
Indirect
|
Total
|
|
|
|
Pro-fertility policy
|
-0.00077
|
-0.00598
|
-0.00675
|
-0.00384
|
0.00917
|
|
(0.0060)
|
(0.0383)
|
(0.0438)
|
(0.0057)
|
(0.0072)
|
|
GDP per capita
($ thousand)
|
0.00383***
|
0.0234**
|
0.0272**
|
0.00366**
|
0.00825***
|
|
(0.001)
|
(0.012)
|
(0.013)
|
(0.002)
|
(0.002)
|
|
Health spending per capita
($ thousand)
|
-0.0130***
|
-0.0825*
|
-0.0955*
|
-0.0119***
|
-0.00918**
|
|
(0.004)
|
(0.048)
|
(0.05)
|
(0.004)
|
(0.004)
|
|
Trade to GDP
|
0.000249**
|
0.00154
|
0.00179
|
0.000251**
|
0.000242*
|
|
(0.0001)
|
(0.0011)
|
(0.0012)
|
(0.0001)
|
(0.0001)
|
|
Share of urban
population
|
0.00329***
|
0.0199**
|
0.0231**
|
0.00329***
|
0.00732***
|
|
(0.0009)
|
(0.0097)
|
(0.0101)
|
(0.0010)
|
(0.0010)
|
|
Spatial parameter (rho)
|
25.30***
|
|
|
|
|
|
(1.1290)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Spatial parameter
(lambda)
|
|
|
|
25.92***
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.9920)
|
|
|
Constant
|
|
|
|
|
-0.535***
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.0532)
|
|
Observations
|
798
|
798
|
798
|
798
|
798
|
|
Number of countries
|
133
|
133
|
133
|
133
|
133
|
|
Econometric model
|
SAR
|
SAR
|
SAR
|
SEM
|
FE
|
|
Country and time fixed effects
|
YES
|
YES
|
YES
|
YES
|
YES
|
Clustered standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
Dependent variable
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
(4)
|
(5)
|
|
Change in total fertility rate
|
SAR
|
SAR
|
SAR
|
SEM
|
OLS
|
|
Variables
|
Direct
|
Indirect
|
Total
|
|
|
|
Family planning policy
|
0.00583
|
0.0437
|
0.0496
|
0.00523
|
0.00903
|
|
(0.0255)
|
(0.1960)
|
(0.2180)
|
(0.0241)
|
(0.0266)
|
|
GDP per capita
($ thousand)
|
0.00369*
|
0.0236
|
0.0273
|
0.00359
|
0.00849***
|
|
(0.002)
|
(0.019)
|
(0.021)
|
(0.003)
|
(0.003)
|
|
Health spending
per capita ($ thousand)
|
-0.0127**
|
-0.0822
|
-0.0949
|
-0.0123**
|
-0.00830
|
|
(0.006)
|
(0.063)
|
(0.066)
|
(0.006)
|
(0.005)
|
|
Trade to GDP
|
0.000254*
|
0.00179
|
0.00204
|
0.000258**
|
0.000246*
|
|
(0.0001)
|
(0.0021)
|
(0.0022)
|
(0.0001)
|
(0.0001)
|
|
Share of urban
population
|
0.00321**
|
0.0215
|
0.0247
|
0.00324*
|
0.00735***
|
|
(0.0015)
|
(0.0237)
|
(0.0245)
|
(0.0017)
|
(0.0014)
|
|
Spatial parameter
(rho)
|
25.28***
|
|
|
|
|
|
(1.3270)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Spatial parameter
(lambda)
|
|
|
|
25.88***
|
|
|
|
|
|
(1.2090)
|
|
|
Constant
|
|
|
|
|
-0.546***
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.0808)
|
|
Observations
|
798
|
798
|
798
|
798
|
798
|
|
Number of countries
|
133
|
133
|
133
|
133
|
133
|
|
Econometric model
|
SAR
|
SAR
|
SAR
|
SEM
|
FE
|
|
Country and time fixed effects
|
YES
|
YES
|
YES
|
YES
|
YES
|
Clustered standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
Variables
|
(1)
SEM
|
(2)
SAR
|
(3)
OLS
|
|
Pro-fertility policy
|
0.0176
|
-0.0338
|
0.0288
|
|
(0.0877)
|
(0.0777)
|
(0.0936)
|
|
GDP per capita
($ thousand)
|
0.0201***
|
0.0166***
|
0.0193***
|
|
(0.005)
|
(0.004)
|
(0.007)
|
|
Trade to GDP
|
0.000128
|
-0.000449
|
0.00022
|
|
(0.0007)
|
(0.0006)
|
(0.0006)
|
|
Share of urban
population
|
-0.00135
|
0.000492
|
-0.00144
|
|
(0.0016)
|
(0.0016)
|
(0.0019)
|
|
Constant
|
-0.630***
|
-0.779***
|
-0.563***
|
|
(0.1350)
|
(0.1070)
|
(0.0708)
|
|
Spatial parameter
(lambda)
|
-0.245
|
|
|
|
(0.4170)
|
|
|
|
Spatial parameter
(rho)
|
|
1.335***
|
|
|
|
(0.1090)
|
|
|
Observations
|
102
|
102
|
102
|
|
Wald chi2(4)
|
27.6384
|
24.6198
|
|
|
Prob > chi2
|
0
|
0.0001
|
|
|
Econometric Model
|
SEM
|
SAR
|
OLS
|
|
Variables
|
(1)
SEM
|
(2)
SAR
|
(3)
OLS
|
|
Anti-fertility policy
|
-0.208***
|
-0.144**
|
-0.210***
|
|
(0.0666)
|
(0.0603)
|
(0.0609)
|
|
GDP per capita
($ thousand)
|
0.0180***
|
0.0149***
|
0.0179**
|
|
(0.00439)
|
(0.00431)
|
(0.00697)
|
|
Trade to GDP
|
0.0000679
|
-0.00049
|
0.0000846
|
|
(0.000661)
|
(0.000612)
|
(0.000536)
|
|
Share of urban
population
|
-0.00300*
|
-0.000645
|
-0.00303*
|
|
(0.00163)
|
(0.0016)
|
(0.00181)
|
|
Constant
|
-0.406***
|
-0.625***
|
-0.394***
|
|
(0.146)
|
(0.12)
|
(0.0805)
|
|
Spatial parameter
(lambda)
|
-0.0404
|
|
|
|
(0.394)
|
|
|
|
Spatial parameter
(rho)
|
|
1.314***
|
|
|
|
(0.129)
|
|
|
Observations
|
102
|
102
|
102
|
|
Wald chi2(4)
|
40.0463
|
31.5678
|
|
|
Prob > chi2
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
Econometric Model
|
SEM
|
SAR
|
OLS
|
Clustered standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
| (1) | (2) | (3) | Variables | SEM | SAR | OLS | Family planning policy | 0.118 | 0.139* | 0.116 | (0.0927) | (0.0798) | (0.1240) | GDP per capita
($ thousand) | 0.0207*** | 0.0161*** | 0.020*** | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.006) | Trade to GDP | 0.000247 | -0.0000804 | 0.000366 | (0.0007) | (0.0006) | (0.0005) | Share of urban
population | -0.00136 | 0.000492 | -0.00146 | (0.0016) | (0.0016) | (0.0019) | Constant | -0.754*** | -0.696*** | -0.676*** | (0.1610) | (0.1120) | (0.1500) | Spatial parameter
(lambda) | -0.277 | | | (0.4050) | | | Spatial parameter
(rho) | | 2.453*** | | | (0.3360) | | Observations | 102 | 102 | 102 | Wald chi2(4) | 29.6418 | 19.8782 | | Prob > chi2 | 0 | 0.0005 | | Econometric Model | SEM | SAR | OLS |
Clustered standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
List of countries and codes in the Moran’s I graph
|
|
Africa
|
Code
|
Africa
|
Code
|
Oceania
|
Code
|
Northern America
|
Code
|
|
Algeria
|
2
|
Mauritania
|
75
|
Australia
|
6
|
Canada
|
17
|
|
Angola
|
4
|
Mauritius
|
74
|
Fiji
|
45
|
United States
|
124
|
|
Benin
|
13
|
Morocco
|
73
|
Kiribati
|
64
|
|
|
|
Botswana
|
105
|
Mozambique
|
80
|
New Zealand
|
91
|
|
|
|
Burkina
Faso
|
125
|
Niger
|
82
|
Samoa
|
130
|
|
|
|
Burundi
|
22
|
Nigeria
|
86
|
Tonga
|
116
|
|
|
|
Cabo Verde
|
33
|
Rwanda
|
101
|
Vanuatu
|
85
|
|
|
|
Cameroon
|
26
|
Senegal
|
106
|
|
|
|
|
|
Central
African Republic
|
31
|
Sierra Leone
|
107
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chad
|
27
|
Somalia
|
109
|
|
|
|
|
|
Comoros
|
28
|
South Africa
|
103
|
|
|
|
|
|
Congo, Dem.
Rep.
|
21
|
Swaziland
|
131
|
|
|
|
|
|
Congo, Rep.
|
20
|
Tanzania
|
120
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cote
d'Ivoire
|
60
|
Togo
|
117
|
|
|
|
|
|
Egypt, Arab
Rep.
|
38
|
Tunisia
|
118
|
|
|
|
|
|
Equatorial
Guinea
|
40
|
Uganda
|
121
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ethiopia
|
42
|
Zambia
|
132
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gabon
|
48
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gambia, The
|
47
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ghana
|
49
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Guinea
|
53
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Guinea-Bissau
|
98
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kenya
|
63
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lesotho
|
104
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Madagascar
|
70
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Malawi
|
81
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mali
|
72
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
List of countries and codes in the Moran’s I graph (Continued)
|
|
Europe
|
Code
|
Asia
|
Code
|
Latin America & Caribbean
|
Code
|
|
Albania
|
3
|
Bahrain
|
7
|
Antigua and Barbuda
|
1
|
|
Austria
|
43
|
Bangladesh
|
10
|
Argentina
|
5
|
|
Belarus
|
69
|
Bhutan
|
24
|
Bahamas, The
|
9
|
|
Belgium
|
83
|
Brunei Darussalam
|
16
|
Barbados
|
8
|
|
Bulgaria
|
15
|
Cambodia
|
18
|
Belize
|
11
|
|
Denmark
|
35
|
China
|
23
|
Bolivia
|
12
|
|
Finland
|
44
|
Cyprus
|
34
|
Brazil
|
14
|
|
France
|
46
|
India
|
57
|
Chile
|
25
|
|
Greece
|
51
|
Indonesia
|
133
|
Colombia
|
29
|
|
Hungary
|
55
|
Israel
|
58
|
Costa Rica
|
30
|
|
Iceland
|
56
|
Japan
|
61
|
Cuba
|
32
|
|
Ireland
|
39
|
Jordan
|
62
|
Dominican Republic
|
36
|
|
Italy
|
59
|
Korea, Rep.
|
65
|
Ecuador
|
37
|
|
Luxembourg
|
84
|
Kuwait
|
66
|
El Salvador
|
41
|
|
Malta
|
76
|
Lao PDR
|
67
|
Grenada
|
50
|
|
Netherlands
|
87
|
Lebanon
|
68
|
Guatemala
|
52
|
|
Norway
|
88
|
Malaysia
|
79
|
Honduras
|
54
|
|
Poland
|
95
|
Mongolia
|
71
|
Mexico
|
78
|
|
Portugal
|
97
|
Nepal
|
89
|
Nicaragua
|
90
|
|
Romania
|
99
|
Oman
|
77
|
Panama
|
96
|
|
Spain
|
110
|
Pakistan
|
94
|
Paraguay
|
92
|
|
Sweden
|
112
|
Philippines
|
100
|
Peru
|
93
|
|
Switzerland
|
113
|
Saudi Arabia
|
102
|
St. Lucia
|
111
|
|
Ukraine
|
123
|
Singapore
|
108
|
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
|
127
|
|
United
Kingdom
|
122
|
Sri Lanka
|
19
|
Trinidad and Tobago
|
114
|
|
|
|
Thailand
|
115
|
Uruguay
|
126
|
|
|
|
Turkey
|
119
|
Venezuela, RB
|
128
|
|
|
|
Vietnam
|
129
|
|
|
Africa1 | Africa2 | Europe | Asia | Latin Amer.
& Caribbean | Oceania | Algeria | Mauritius | Albania | Bahrain | Argentina | Fiji | Angola | Morocco | Austria | Bangladesh | Bahamas | Kiribati | Benin | Mozambique | Belarus | Bhutan | Barbados | New Zealand | Botswana | Niger | Belgium | Brunei Darussalam | Belize | Samoa | Burkina Faso | Nigeria | Bulgaria | Cambodia | Bolivia | Tonga | Burundi | Rwanda | Denmark | China | Brazil | Vanuatu | Cameroon | Senegal | Finland | Cyprus | Chile | Antigua and Barbuda | Cape Verde | Sierra Leone | France | India | Colombia | | Central African Republic | Somalia | Greece | Indonesia | Costa Rica | | Chad | South Africa | Hungary | Israel | Cuba | | Comoros | Swaziland | Iceland | Japan | Dominican Republic | | Congo | Togo | Ireland | Jordan | Ecuador | | Cote d'Ivoire | Tunisia | Italy | Korea, Republic of | El Salvador | | Congo Democratic Republic | Uganda | Luxembourg | Kuwait | Grenada | | Egypt | Tanzania | Malta | Lao | Guatemala | | Equatorial Guinea | Zambia | Netherlands | Lebanon | Honduras | | Ethiopia | | Norway | Malaysia | Mexico | | Gabon | | Poland | Mongolia | Nicaragua | | Gambia | | Portugal | Nepal | Panama | | Ghana | | Romania | Oman | Paraguay | | Guinea | | Spain | Pakistan | Peru | | Guinea-Bissau | | Sweden | Philippines | Saint Lucia | | Kenya | | Switzerland | Saudi Arabia | Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | | Lesotho | | Ukraine | Singapore | Trinidad and Tobago | | Madagascar | | United Kingdom | Sri Lanka | Uruguay | | Malawi | | | Thailand | Venezuela | | Mali | | | Turkey | | | Mauritania | | Viet Nam | | |
|
Africa1
|
Africa2
|
Europe
|
Asia
|
Latin America & Caribbean
|
Oceania
|
Northern America
|
|
Algeria
|
Mali
|
Austria
|
Bangladesh
|
Argentina
|
Australia
|
Canada
|
|
Benin
|
Mauritania
|
Belgium
|
Brunei Darussalam
|
Barbados
|
Fiji
|
United States
|
|
Botswana
|
Mauritius
|
Denmark
|
China
|
Bolivia
|
Kiribati
|
|
|
Burkina Faso
|
Morocco
|
Finland
|
Cyprus
|
Brazil
|
Papua New Guinea
|
|
|
Burundi
|
Niger
|
France
|
India
|
Chile
|
|
|
|
Cameroon
|
Nigeria
|
Greece
|
Indonesia
|
Colombia
|
|
|
|
Central African Republic
|
Rwanda
|
Iceland
|
Iran, Islamic Rep.
|
Costa Rica
|
|
|
|
Chad
|
Seychelles
|
Ireland
|
Israel
|
Cuba
|
|
|
|
Congo, Rep.
|
Sierra Leone
|
Italy
|
Japan
|
Dominican Republic
|
|
|
|
Cote d'Ivoire
|
Somalia
|
Luxembourg
|
Jordan
|
Ecuador
|
|
|
|
Congo,
Dem. Rep.
|
South Africa
|
Malta
|
Korea, Rep.
|
El Salvador
|
|
|
|
Egypt,
Arab Rep.
|
Swaziland
|
Netherlands
|
Malaysia
|
Guatemala
|
|
|
|
Gabon
|
Togo
|
Norway
|
Nepal
|
Guyana
|
|
|
|
Gambia, The
|
Tunisia
|
Portugal
|
Oman
|
Honduras
|
|
|
|
Ghana
|
Zambia
|
Spain
|
Pakistan
|
Mexico
|
|
|
|
Guinea-Bissau
|
Zimbabwe
|
Sweden
|
Philippines
|
Nicaragua
|
|
|
|
Kenya
|
|
United Kingdom
|
Saudi Arabia
|
Peru
|
|
|
|
Lesotho
|
|
|
Sri Lanka
|
Suriname
|
|
|
|
Liberia
|
|
|
Syrian Arab Republic
|
Trinidad and Tobago
|
|
|
|
Madagascar
|
|
|
Thailand
|
Uruguay
|
|
|
|
Malawi
|
|
|
Turkey
|
Venezuela, RB
|
|
|
Missing Countries from the Table 4-6 Regressions Africa | Europe | Asia | Latin Amer.
& Caribbean | Oceania | Comoros | Belarus | Kuwait | Belize | Samoa | Cabo Verde | Hungary | Singapore | Antigua and Barbuda | Vanuatu | Senegal | Switzerland | Bahrain | St. Lucia | Tonga | Equatorial Guinea | Ukraine | Lao PDR | Panama | New Zealand | Uganda | Albania | Bhutan | Grenada | | Ethiopia | Romania | Lebanon | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | | Guinea | Poland | Mongolia | Bahamas, The | | Angola | Bulgaria | Cambodia | Paraguay | | Tanzania | | Vietnam | | | Mozambique | | | | |
Missing Countries from the Table 1-3 Regressions Africa | Europe | Asia | Latin Amer.
& Caribbean | Oceania | Seychelles | | Iran, Islamic Rep. | Guyana | Papua New Guinea | Liberia | | Syrian Arab Republic | Suriname | | Zimbabwe | | | | |
Anselin, L., 1988. S patial Econometrics: Methods and Models. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic [ CrossRef]
Becker, G. S., 1960. An Economic Analysis of Fertility In: R. Easterlin ed. Demographic and Economic Change in Developing Countries. Princeton: Princeton University Press, pp. 209-240.
Bradshaw, J. and Attar-Schwartz, S., 2011. Fertility and Social Policy In: N. Takayama and M. Werding, eds. Fertility and Public Policy: How to Reverse the Trend of Declining Birth Rates. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, pp. 185-212.
Cliff, A. and Ord, J., 1981. Spatial Processes: Models and Applications. London: Taylor & Francis.
Easterly, W. and Levine, R., 1998. Troubles with the Neighbours: Africa’s Problem, Africa’s Opportunity. Journal of African Economies, 7(1), pp. 120-142 [ CrossRef]
Feyrer, J., Sacerdote, B. and Stern, A. D. 2008. Will the stork return to Europe and Japan? Understanding fertility within developed nations. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(3), pp. 3-22 [ CrossRef]
Haub, C., 2010. Did South Korea’s Population Policy Work Too Well? Washington, D.C.: Population Reference Bureau.
Parent, O. and Zouache, A., 2012. Geography versus Institutions: New Perspectives on the Growth of Africa and the Middle East. Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, 168(3), pp. 488-518 [ CrossRef]
Pritchett, L. H., 1994. Desired Fertility and the Impact of Population Policies. Population and Development Review, 20(1), pp. 1-55 [ CrossRef]
Razin, A. and Sadka, S., 1995. Population Economics. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
Takayama, N. and Werding, M., 2011. Fertility and Public Policy: How to Reverse the Trend of Declining Birth Rates. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
United Nations, 2013. World Population Policies 2013. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
Yap, M. T., 2003. Fertility and Population Policy: the Singapore Experience. Journal of Population and Social Security (Population). Supplement to Volume 1, pp. 643-658.
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March, 2018
I/2018 |
