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Forecasting medical inflation in the European Union using the ARIMA model
Enja Erker 
Article | Year: 2024 | Pages: 39 - 56 | Volume: 48 | Issue: 1 Received: June 1, 2023 | Accepted: October 19, 2023 | Published online: March 1, 2024
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FULL ARTICLE
FIGURES & DATA
REFERENCES
CROSSMARK POLICY
METRICS
LICENCING
PDF
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Member state
|
ADF test
|
KPSS test
|
Stationarity
|
|
Austria
|
0.02*
|
0.10
|
Stationary
|
|
Belgium
|
0.49
|
0.10
|
Non-stationary
|
|
Bulgaria
|
0.41
|
0.07
|
Non-stationary
|
|
Croatia
|
0.01*
|
0.10
|
Stationary
|
|
Cyprus
|
0.08
|
0.10
|
Non-stationary
|
|
Czechia
|
0.01*
|
0.10
|
Stationary
|
|
Denmark
|
0.01*
|
0.10
|
Stationary
|
|
Estonia
|
0.23
|
0.10
|
Non-stationary
|
|
Finland
|
0.08
|
0.10
|
Non-stationary
|
|
France
|
0.05
|
0.10
|
Stationary
|
|
Germany
|
0.01*
|
0.10
|
Stationary
|
|
Greece
|
0.28
|
0.80
|
Non-stationary
|
|
Hungary
|
0.01*
|
0.10
|
Stationary
|
|
Ireland
|
0.13
|
0.03*
|
Non-stationary
|
|
Italia
|
0.01*
|
0.10
|
Stationary
|
|
Latvia
|
0.28
|
0.10
|
Non-stationary
|
|
Lithuania
|
0.21
|
0.08
|
Non-stationary
|
|
Luxembourg
|
0.01*
|
0.10
|
Stationary
|
|
Malta
|
0.28
|
0.10
|
Non-stationary
|
|
Netherlands
|
0.08
|
0.10
|
Non-stationary
|
|
Poland
|
0.65
|
0.04*
|
Non-stationary
|
|
Portugal
|
0.01*
|
0.10
|
Stationary
|
|
Romania
|
0.01*
|
0.02*
|
Non-stationary
|
|
Slovakia
|
0.04*
|
0.10
|
Stationary
|
|
Slovenia
|
0.51
|
0.03*
|
Non-stationary
|
|
Spain
|
0.01*
|
0.10
|
Stationary
|
|
Sweden
|
0.07
|
0.10
|
Non-stationary
|
Note: *p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01 and *** p < 0.001.
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Member state
|
Mar
|
Apr
|
May
|
Jun
|
Jul
|
Aug
|
Sep
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
Jan
|
Feb
|
Average
|
|
Austria
|
0.68
|
1.02
|
0.12
|
0.91
|
0.69
|
0.77
|
0.43
|
0.89
|
2.00
|
1.86
|
2.12
|
3.34
|
1.23
|
|
Belgium
|
0.06
|
0.25
|
0.25
|
0.30
|
0.33
|
0.63
|
0.82
|
1.07
|
1.16
|
1.30
|
1.48
|
4.07
|
0.98
|
|
Bulgaria
|
0.17
|
0.45
|
0.92
|
1.37
|
1.86
|
2.02
|
1.64
|
1.89
|
4.22
|
6.70
|
9.59
|
11.02
|
3.49
|
|
Croatia
|
0.28
|
1.38
|
2.14
|
2.27
|
2.48
|
3.66
|
5.06
|
5.67
|
6.12
|
6.28
|
6.59
|
8.17
|
4.18
|
|
Cyprus
|
0.09
|
0.14
|
0.66
|
0.41
|
0.46
|
0.33
|
0.02
|
0.11
|
0.06
|
0.08
|
0.47
|
0.12
|
0.25
|
|
Czechia
|
0.69
|
0.87
|
0.11
|
0.38
|
0.64
|
0.98
|
0.83
|
1.49
|
0.51
|
1.56
|
2.19
|
2.86
|
1.09
|
|
Denmark
|
0.72
|
0.69
|
0.43
|
0.12
|
1.35
|
1.03
|
1.02
|
0.69
|
1.71
|
1.92
|
2.67
|
2.71
|
1.25
|
|
Estonia
|
0.67
|
1.31
|
1.15
|
2.03
|
2.57
|
3.05
|
3.21
|
4.93
|
6.18
|
5.65
|
6.83
|
7.22
|
3.73
|
|
Finland
|
1.30
|
1.22
|
1.52
|
2.00
|
0.40
|
0.68
|
0.60
|
0.92
|
0.76
|
0.77
|
0.84
|
0.29
|
0.94
|
|
France
|
0.42
|
0.82
|
1.19
|
0.95
|
1.14
|
0.66
|
0.17
|
1.06
|
1.58
|
1.01
|
1.15
|
1.58
|
0.98
|
|
Germany
|
0.01
|
0.18
|
0.06
|
0.03
|
0.45
|
0.45
|
1.99
|
2.41
|
2.60
|
2.64
|
2.71
|
2.73
|
1.35
|
|
Greece
|
0.38
|
0.59
|
0.15
|
0.87
|
1.59
|
2.00
|
2.17
|
3.01
|
3.51
|
3.33
|
4.07
|
4.88
|
2.21
|
|
Hungary
|
0.20
|
0.00
|
0.51
|
1.26
|
2.17
|
3.48
|
5.25
|
6.95
|
9.34
|
11.16
|
12.75
|
12.64
|
5.48
|
|
Ireland
|
0.11
|
0.59
|
0.64
|
0.38
|
0.38
|
0.73
|
0.34
|
0.01
|
0.06
|
0.14
|
0.13
|
0.01
|
0.29
|
|
Italia
|
0.04
|
0.16
|
0.08
|
0.15
|
0.03
|
0.18
|
0.26
|
0.43
|
0.52
|
0.63
|
0.37
|
0.81
|
0.30
|
|
Latvia
|
0.08
|
1.29
|
1.72
|
2.55
|
2.88
|
3.23
|
3.19
|
3.94
|
4.76
|
4.66
|
5.91
|
6.29
|
3.38
|
|
Lithuania
|
0.11
|
0.04
|
0.72
|
1.40
|
1.76
|
2.23
|
2.75
|
2.59
|
3.70
|
3.39
|
4.58
|
3.62
|
2.24
|
|
Luxembourg
|
0.83
|
0.64
|
2.47
|
3.04
|
3.27
|
3.27
|
3.57
|
4.58
|
4.22
|
4.59
|
5.21
|
5.65
|
3.45
|
|
Malta
|
0.46
|
0.07
|
0.32
|
0.70
|
0.25
|
0.45
|
0.93
|
1.49
|
1.93
|
1.93
|
2.39
|
2.11
|
1.09
|
|
Netherlands
|
0.40
|
0.04
|
0.37
|
0.32
|
0.14
|
0.18
|
0.61
|
0.40
|
0.91
|
0.47
|
1.10
|
3.66
|
0.72
|
|
Poland
|
0.51
|
1.34
|
1.97
|
2.72
|
2.89
|
3.06
|
3.09
|
3.40
|
4.21
|
5.01
|
5.06
|
6.67
|
3.33
|
|
Portugal
|
0.37
|
0.12
|
0.04
|
0.17
|
5.05
|
5.45
|
5.34
|
5.18
|
5.46
|
4.47
|
4.39
|
4.23
|
3.36
|
|
Romania
|
0.51
|
1.45
|
2.97
|
4.30
|
6.11
|
7.25
|
8.33
|
9.55
|
11.11
|
12.84
|
14.37
|
15.64
|
7.87
|
|
Slovakia
|
0.48
|
0.92
|
1.56
|
2.89
|
2.60
|
3.25
|
4.20
|
5.20
|
5.03
|
6.22
|
7.28
|
7.68
|
3.94
|
|
Slovenia
|
0.95
|
0.67
|
0.28
|
0.52
|
0.48
|
0.09
|
1.97
|
2.00
|
1.44
|
3.95
|
5.50
|
3.75
|
1.80
|
|
Spain
|
0.32
|
0.20
|
0.11
|
0.07
|
0.50
|
0.41
|
0.57
|
0.80
|
0.81
|
1.18
|
1.05
|
1.05
|
0.59
|
|
Sweden
|
0.45
|
1.54
|
2.23
|
2.92
|
3.16
|
2.52
|
4.01
|
4.36
|
3.95
|
4.24
|
5.33
|
6.08
|
3.40
|
|
Average
|
0.42
|
0.66
|
0.91
|
1.30
|
1.70
|
1.93
|
2.31
|
2.78
|
3.25
|
3.63
|
4.30
|
4.77
|
2.33
|
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March, 2024
I/2024
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