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How much is the bill? Simulating selected proposals for income policy adjustments during the 2017 Bulgarian parliamentary election campaigns
Venelin Boshnakov* 
Preliminary communication | Year: 2017 | Pages: 299 - 314 | Volume: 41 | Issue: 3 Received: July 23, 2017 | Accepted: August 7, 2017 | Published online: September 15, 2017
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FULL ARTICLE
FIGURES & DATA
REFERENCES
CROSSMARK POLICY
METRICS
LICENCING
PDF
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Indicator
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Value
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Note
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Number of PIOA recipients
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1,834,875
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Incl.
recipients of pension < BGN 300
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836,716
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45.6% of the total number
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Total expenditures for
PIOA (baseline)
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7,574
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Million BGN
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Total expenditures for
PIOA (proposal)
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8,399
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Million BGN
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Deficit:
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-826
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Million BGN
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Deficit as a percentage of
PIOA expenditures
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-10.9
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Deficit as a percentage of
expected 2017 GDP
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-0.85
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Indicator | Value | Note | Simulated TBH beneficiaries (baseline) | 368,223 | Number | Simulated amount of TBH (baseline) | 133.4 | Million BGN | Simulated TBH beneficiaries (proposal) | 701,757 | Number | Gain in recipients | 333,534 | | Simulated amount of TBH (proposal) | 254.2 | Million BGN | Deficit (million BGN) | –120.8 | | Deficit as a percentage of TBH expenditures | -90.6 | | Deficit as a percentage of expected 2017 GDP | -0.124 | |
Indicator | Value | Note | Simulated PIT payers (baseline) | 3.883 | Million | Simulated amount of PIT (baseline) | 3.336 | Bn. BGN | Simulated PIT payers above the proposed threshold (BGN 120,000) | 3,778 | Number | Percentage of the total number | 0.1 | | Simulated amount of PIT (proposal) | 3.353 | Bn. BGN | Additional revenue (million BGN) | 0.017 | Bn. BGN | Percentage of the additional in total revenue | 0.5 | | Percentage of the additional PIT revenue in the expected 2017 GDP | 0.02 | |
Indicator | Value | Note | Number of children (total) | 1,311 | Thousand | Cases “first child” | 873 | Thousand | Cases “second child” | 352 | Thousand | Cases “third or next child” | 86 | Thousand | Simulated amount of PIT (baseline) | 3.336 | Bn. BGN | Simulated amount of CTC (proposal) | 0.665 | Bn. BGN | Simulated PIT, residual | 2.671 | Bn. BGN | Percentage of the reduction in baseline PIT | 19.9 | | Percentage of the reduction in the expected 2017 GDP | 0.68 | |
Beleva, I. and Dimitrov, M. (eds.), 2014. Annual Report 2014: Economic Development and Policy in Bulgaria: Evaluations and Expectations. Topic on Focus: Inequality and Poverty – Dynamics and Policies for Their Limitation. Sofia: Economic Research Institute at Bulgarian Academy of Sciences.
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EUROMOD, 2017. Effects of tax-benefit policy changes across the income distributions of the EU-28 countries: 2015-2016. EUROMOD Working Paper Series, No. EM10/17.
Kotzeva, M., 1999. Opportunities for studying the factor determination of the income differentiation of the population. Statistics Journal, (1), pp. 3-15 (in Bulgarian).
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Nikolova, S., 2009. The transition process and changes in income, income inequality and poverty: The case of Bulgaria. Chapter 3 in: M. Stanculescu and T. Stanovnik, eds. Activity, Incomes, and Social Welfare: A Comparison Across Four New EU Member States. Vienna: Ashgate Publ. Ltd., pp. 89-130.
NSI, 2017. Statistical Data: Demographic and Social Statistics. Macroeconomic Statistics. Sofia: National Statistical Institute of the Republic of Bulgaria.
Shopov, G., 2013. Targeted social assistance in the economic development periods. Economic Studies, 22(1), pp. 72-107.
Shopov, G., 2016. Energy poverty and social assistance of the energy poor people in Bulgaria. Economic Thought, 66(6), pp. 39-61.
Spadaro, A., 2007. Microsimulation as a tool for the evaluation of public policies. Chapter 1 in: A. Spadaro, ed. Microsimulation as a Tool for the Evaluation of Public Policies: Methods and Applications. Bilbao: Fundación BBVA.
Sutherland, H. and Figari, F., 2013. EUROMOD: the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation model. International Journal of Microsimulation, 6(1), pp. 4-26.
Tasseva, I., 2016. Evaluating the performance of means-tested benefits in Bulgaria. Journal of Comparative Economics, 44(4), pp. 919-935 [ CrossRef]
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Tsanov, V. and Bogdanov, B., 2012. Evolution of inequalities as a challenge to the social policy. Statistics Journal, (3-4), pp. 45-78 (in Bulgarian).
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September, 2017
III/2017
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