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How much is the bill? Simulating selected proposals for income policy adjustments during the 2017 Bulgarian parliamentary election campaigns
Venelin Boshnakov*
Preliminary communication | Year: 2017 | Pages: 299 - 314 | Volume: 41 | Issue: 3 Received: July 23, 2017 | Accepted: August 7, 2017 | Published online: September 15, 2017
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FULL ARTICLE
FIGURES & DATA
REFERENCES
CROSSMARK POLICY
METRICS
LICENCING
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Indicator
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Value
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Note
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Number of PIOA recipients
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1,834,875
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Incl.
recipients of pension < BGN 300
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836,716
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45.6% of the total number
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Total expenditures for
PIOA (baseline)
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7,574
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Million BGN
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Total expenditures for
PIOA (proposal)
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8,399
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Million BGN
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Deficit:
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-826
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Million BGN
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Deficit as a percentage of
PIOA expenditures
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-10.9
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Deficit as a percentage of
expected 2017 GDP
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-0.85
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Source: EUROMOD output; author’s calculations.
Indicator | Value | Note | Simulated TBH beneficiaries (baseline) | 368,223 | Number | Simulated amount of TBH (baseline) | 133.4 | Million BGN | Simulated TBH beneficiaries (proposal) | 701,757 | Number | Gain in recipients | 333,534 | | Simulated amount of TBH (proposal) | 254.2 | Million BGN | Deficit (million BGN) | –120.8 | | Deficit as a percentage of TBH expenditures | -90.6 | | Deficit as a percentage of expected 2017 GDP | -0.124 | |
Source: EUROMOD output; author’s calculations.
Indicator | Value | Note | Simulated PIT payers (baseline) | 3.883 | Million | Simulated amount of PIT (baseline) | 3.336 | Bn. BGN | Simulated PIT payers above the proposed threshold (BGN 120,000) | 3,778 | Number | Percentage of the total number | 0.1 | | Simulated amount of PIT (proposal) | 3.353 | Bn. BGN | Additional revenue (million BGN) | 0.017 | Bn. BGN | Percentage of the additional in total revenue | 0.5 | | Percentage of the additional PIT revenue in the expected 2017 GDP | 0.02 | |
Source: EUROMOD output; author’s calculations.
Indicator | Value | Note | Number of children (total) | 1,311 | Thousand | Cases “first child” | 873 | Thousand | Cases “second child” | 352 | Thousand | Cases “third or next child” | 86 | Thousand | Simulated amount of PIT (baseline) | 3.336 | Bn. BGN | Simulated amount of CTC (proposal) | 0.665 | Bn. BGN | Simulated PIT, residual | 2.671 | Bn. BGN | Percentage of the reduction in baseline PIT | 19.9 | | Percentage of the reduction in the expected 2017 GDP | 0.68 | |
Source: EUROMOD output; author’s calculations.
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September, 2017 III/2017 |