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Institutions, public debt and growth in Europe
Article | Year: 2017 | Pages: 159 - 205 | Volume: 41 | Issue: 2 Received: October 19, 2016 | Accepted: March 8, 2017 | Published online: June 15, 2017
|
FULL ARTICLE
FIGURES & DATA
REFERENCES
CROSSMARK POLICY
METRICS
LICENCING
PDF
Note: As diamonds early EA countries (i.e. countries that joined the euro area until 2001), as x other EU countries. Source: ECB computation on EC data.
Note: Average of four indicators: government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and control of corruption. Dashed early EA countries and blank rest of EU.Source: Authors’ computation on WDI data.
Source: ECB computation on EC and World Bank data.
|
|
EU
|
Debt<601999
|
Debt>601999
|
Early EA
|
Transition countries
|
|
Pot.
GDP per capita PPPadj growth1999-2014
|
80.24
|
95.04
|
55.91
|
49.02
|
126.05
|
|
GDP per capita in thsd PPPadj EUR1999
|
15.65
|
14.15
|
18.72
|
20.49
|
8.81
|
|
WGI
Delivery1999
|
0.034
|
0.018
|
0.177
|
0.445
|
-0.624
|
|
WGI
Delivery2007
|
0.091
|
0.058
|
0.157
|
0.359
|
-0.427
|
|
WGI
Delivery2014
|
0.062
|
0.011
|
0.097
|
0.271
|
-0.376
|
|
Government
Debt % GDP1999
|
52.41
|
37.67
|
76.01
|
69.13
|
32.38
|
|
Observations1999
|
27
|
16
|
10
|
11
|
11
|
Source: ECB computation on EC and World Bank data.
|
15-year average per capita
potential growth
|
|
Explanatory
variables
|
OLS
|
2SLS
|
|
Log GDP
(PPP)
|
-0.589***
(0.0386)
|
-0.611***
(0.0413)
|
|
Institutional
delivery
|
0.0951***
(0.0317)
|
0.116***
(0.0394)
|
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0394*
(0.0197)
|
-0.0357*
(0.0186)
|
|
(Debt>60)
x Institutional delivery
|
0.131***
(0.0283)
|
0.123***
(0.0289)
|
|
Constant
|
2.127***
(0.0988)
|
2.181***
(0.105)
|
|
Observations
|
208
|
208
|
|
R-squared
|
0.911
|
0.910
|
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: Authors’ computation on EC and World Bank data.
|
|
EU
(27)
|
EU + other OECD
(33)
|
Fixed ER
(21)
|
Flexible ER
(12)
|
|
Log GDP
(PPP)
|
-0.589***
(0.0386)
|
-0.551***
(0.0468)
|
-0.634***
(0.0483)
|
-0.402***
(0.0735)
|
|
Institutional
delivery
|
0.0951***
(0.0317)
|
0.0904**
(0.0391)
|
0.124**
(0.0465)
|
0.00785
(0.0765)
|
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0394*
(0.0197)
|
-0.0716**
(0.0297)
|
-0.0507
(0.0322)
|
-0.0895
(0.0517)
|
|
(Debt>60)
x Institutional delivery
|
0.131***
(0.0283)
|
0.114***
(0.0413)
|
0.133***
(0.0425)
|
0.0873
(0.069)
|
|
Constant
|
2.127***
(0.0988)
|
2.032***
(0.118)
|
2.237***
(0.121)
|
1.657***
(0.186)
|
|
Observations
|
208
|
246
|
160
|
86
|
|
R-squared
|
0.911
|
0.849
|
0.880
|
0.834
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Other OECD: CA, IS, JP, NO, TR, US. Flexible ER: CZ, GB, HU, PL, RO, SE, CA, IS, JP, NO, TR, US. Fixed ER (early EA and fixed exchange rate and late EA joining countries): CY, EE, LT, LV, MT, SI, SK, BG, DK, HR.
|
|
15 year average potential GDP
growth (in PPP)
|
|
Debt
threshold
|
T=60
Baseline
|
T=50
|
T=70
|
No threshold debt centred at
60% for the interaction term
|
|
Log GDP
(PPP)
|
-0.589***
(0.0386)
|
-0.567***
(0.0413)
|
-0.600***
(0.0396)
|
-0.556***
(0.0412)
|
|
Institutional
delivery
|
0.0951***
(0.0317)
|
0.0663*
(0.0348)
|
0.122***
(0.0330)
|
0.153***
(0.0299)
|
|
(Debt>T)
|
-0.0394*
(0.0197)
|
-0.0670**
(0.0243)
|
-0.0272
(0.0249)
|
-0.000459
(0.000391)
|
|
(Debt>T)
x Institutional delivery
|
0.131***
(0.0283)
|
0.150***
(0.0291)
|
0.120***
(0.0348)
|
0.00291***
(0.000571)
|
|
Constant
|
2.127***
(0.0988)
|
2.080***
(0.103)
|
2.154***
(0.102)
|
2.013***
(0.105)
|
|
Observations
|
208
|
208
|
208
|
208
|
|
R-squared
|
0.911
|
0.926
|
0.900
|
0.917
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
Exercise 1 – Average annual growth impact of reducing debt to
below threshold (in %)
|
|
|
IT
|
SI
|
FR
|
PT
|
GR
|
|
Model
|
D50
|
D60
|
D70
|
D50
|
D60
|
D70
|
D50
|
D60
|
D70
|
D50
|
D60
|
D70
|
D50
|
D60
|
D70
|
|
Contribution debt
|
0.46
|
0.27
|
0.18
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0.46
|
0.27
|
0
|
0.46
|
0
|
0
|
0.46
|
0.27
|
0.18
|
|
Contribution interaction term
|
0.27
|
0.24
|
0.22
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
-0.3
|
-0.3
|
0
|
-0.1
|
0
|
0
|
0.24
|
0.21
|
0.19
|
|
Total
|
0.75
|
0.51
|
0.41
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0.14
|
0
|
0
|
0.32
|
0
|
0
|
0.72
|
0.49
|
0.38
|
|
Exercise 2 – Average annual growth impact of reducing debt to
below threshold and moving institutions to EU top 3 (in %)
|
|
|
IT
|
SI
|
FR
|
PT
|
GR
|
|
Contribution institutional delivery
|
0.87
|
0.73
|
0.47
|
0.59
|
0.85
|
|
Contribution debt
|
0.27
|
0
|
0.27
|
0
|
0.27
|
|
Contribution interaction term
|
0.24
|
0
|
-0.3
|
0
|
0.21
|
|
Total
|
1.45
|
0.73
|
0.47
|
0.59
|
1.4
|
|
|
15 year average potential GDP
growth (in PPP)
|
|
|
Baseline
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
(4)
|
(5)
|
(6)
|
|
Catching-up
|
-0.589***
(0.0386)
|
-0.588***
(0.0395)
|
-0.588***
(0.0386)
|
-0.559***
(0.0453)
|
-0.586***
(0.0365)
|
-0.551***
(0.0397)
|
-0.550***
(0.0537)
|
|
Institutional
delivery
|
0.0951***
(0.0317)
|
0.0969***
(0.0317)
|
0.102***
(0.0354)
|
0.0736**
(0.0308)
|
0.0885***
(0.0301)
|
0.0763**
(0.0297)
|
0.0718**
(0.0341)
|
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0394*
(0.0197)
|
-0.0346*
(0.0182)
|
-0.0319
(0.0212)
|
-0.0486**
(0.0215)
|
-0.0301
(0.023)
|
-0.0383
(0.0271)
|
-0.00518
(0.0233)
|
|
(Debt>60)
x Institutional delivery
|
0.131***
(0.0283)
|
0.123***
(0.0266)
|
0.138***
(0.0285)
|
0.134***
(0.0248)
|
0.124***
(0.0286)
|
0.128***
(0.0364)
|
0.0799***
(0.0266)
|
|
Trade
openness
|
|
0.035
(0.0385)
|
|
0.0355
(0.035)
|
|
Government
expenditure
|
|
-0.0985
(0.124)
|
|
-0.102
(0.116)
|
|
Savings
rate
|
|
-0.00161
(0.00176)
|
|
0.00227
(0.00264)
|
|
Participation
rate
|
|
0.00193
(0.00235)
|
|
0.00374
(0.00274)
|
|
Education
|
|
0.00114
(0.00079)
|
0.00157*
(0.00077)
|
|
Constant
|
2.127***
(0.0988)
|
1.969***
(0.214)
|
2.039***
(0.157)
|
2.069***
(0.106)
|
1.980***
(0.189)
|
2.030***
(0.102)
|
1.491***
(0.29)
|
|
Observations
|
208
|
208
|
208
|
195
|
208
|
173
|
166
|
|
R-squared
|
0.911
|
0.914
|
0.914
|
0.925
|
0.912
|
0.897
|
0.922
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
15 year average potential GDP
growth (in PPP)
|
|
Institutions
|
Baseline
|
ECI
(1)
|
KAOPEN
(2)
|
EFF
(3)
|
EFH
(4)
|
|
Catching-up
|
-0.589***
(0.0386)
|
-0.522***
(0.0179)
|
-0.538***
(0.0161)
|
-0.596***
(0.0255)
|
-0.519***
(0.0264)
|
|
Institutions
|
0.0951***
(0.0317)
|
0.0676**
(0.0321)
|
0.0371***
(0.0102)
|
0.0757***
(0.0218)
|
0.00445*
(0.00238)
|
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0394*
(0.0197)
|
0.0230
(0.0326)
|
0.0303
(0.0312)
|
0.0226
(0.0239)
|
0.00215
(0.0248)
|
|
(Debt>60)
x Institutions
|
0.131***
(0.0283)
|
0.0535
(0.0389)
|
-0.00929
(0.0191)
|
0.0522**
(0.0206)
|
0.0108***
(0.00277)
|
|
Constant
|
2.127***
(0.0988)
|
1.941***
(0.0448)
|
2.000***
(0.0467)
|
2.139***
(0.0664)
|
1.941***
(0.0694)
|
|
Observations
|
208
|
454
|
458
|
470
|
200
|
|
First
observation
|
1995
|
1975
|
1975
|
1975
|
1995
|
|
R-squared
|
0.911
|
0.873
|
0.865
|
0.882
|
0.883
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
|
15 year average per capita
GDP growth
|
|
|
Baseline
|
Actual
PPP Log
(1)
|
Actual
Real Log
(2)
|
IMF Pot
Real Log
(3)
|
EC Pot PPP
RelEU
(4)
|
|
PPP Log
|
-0.589***
(0.0386)
|
-0.597***
(0.0441)
|
|
|
Real Log
|
|
|
-0.403***
(0.0499)
|
-0.373***
(0.0398)
|
|
|
PPP RelEU
|
|
|
|
|
-0.469***
(0.0509)
|
|
Institutions
|
0.0951***
(0.0317)
|
0.0909**
(0.0359)
|
0.146**
(0.0533)
|
0.148***
(0.0455)
|
6.432**
(2.455)
|
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0394*
(0.0197)
|
-0.0540*
(0.0271)
|
-0.0401
(0.0298)
|
-0.0401
(0.0269)
|
-3.208
(2.002)
|
|
(Debt>60)
x Institutions
|
0.131***
(0.0283)
|
0.150***
(0.0384)
|
0.161***
(0.0400)
|
0.144***
(0.0327)
|
11.63***
(3.237)
|
|
Constant
|
2.127***
(0.0988)
|
2.134***
(0.113)
|
1.374***
(0.131)
|
1.296***
(0.101)
|
46.05***
(4.024)
|
|
Observations
|
208
|
208
|
208
|
184
|
208
|
|
R-squared
|
0.911
|
0.896
|
0.799
|
0.766
|
0.776
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
Base
Span
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
|
|
1
|
30
|
26
|
43
|
15
|
56
|
49
|
56
|
52
|
62
|
61
|
77
|
58
|
45
|
31
|
41
|
47
|
24
|
31
|
48
|
1
|
|
2
|
26
|
32
|
28
|
39
|
57
|
64
|
64
|
70
|
68
|
76
|
75
|
73
|
49
|
43
|
56
|
45
|
31
|
46
|
49
|
2
|
|
3
|
39
|
33
|
38
|
49
|
68
|
68
|
74
|
73
|
77
|
76
|
81
|
69
|
52
|
51
|
52
|
47
|
42
|
50
|
50
|
3
|
|
4
|
39
|
43
|
50
|
62
|
72
|
75
|
76
|
78
|
79
|
82
|
77
|
69
|
57
|
53
|
51
|
52
|
46
|
52
|
|
4
|
|
5
|
46
|
55
|
62
|
70
|
79
|
77
|
81
|
81
|
85
|
80
|
77
|
71
|
57
|
54
|
55
|
54
|
48
|
|
|
5
|
|
6
|
57
|
63
|
69
|
77
|
81
|
82
|
83
|
86
|
83
|
80
|
78
|
71
|
58
|
58
|
56
|
55
|
|
|
|
6
|
|
7
|
64
|
68
|
76
|
79
|
85
|
85
|
88
|
85
|
83
|
82
|
78
|
71
|
59
|
60
|
57
|
|
|
|
|
7
|
|
8
|
69
|
74
|
78
|
83
|
88
|
90
|
88
|
85
|
84
|
82
|
78
|
70
|
60
|
61
|
|
|
|
|
|
8
|
|
9
|
73
|
78
|
82
|
87
|
92
|
90
|
87
|
85
|
84
|
82
|
77
|
69
|
60
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9
|
|
10
|
77
|
83
|
87
|
92
|
93
|
89
|
88
|
86
|
85
|
82
|
76
|
68
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10
|
|
11
|
82
|
88
|
92
|
92
|
92
|
90
|
88
|
86
|
84
|
81
|
75
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11
|
|
12
|
88
|
92
|
92
|
92
|
92
|
90
|
88
|
86
|
84
|
80
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12
|
|
13
|
92
|
93
|
92
|
92
|
93
|
90
|
87
|
85
|
83
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13
|
|
14
|
93
|
93
|
92
|
92
|
92
|
89
|
87
|
84
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14
|
|
15
|
94
|
94
|
93
|
92
|
92
|
88
|
86
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15
|
|
16
|
94
|
94
|
92
|
91
|
91
|
87
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16
|
|
17
|
94
|
93
|
91
|
90
|
90
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17
|
|
18
|
94
|
93
|
90
|
90
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
18
|
|
19
|
93
|
92
|
90
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
19
|
|
20
|
93
|
91
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20
|
|
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
|
|
|
Average potential per capita GDP growth (in
PPP)
|
|
Outcome
|
Baseline
|
15yr starting 1996/1999/2002
|
23yr starting
1995
|
10yr
non-overlapping
|
|
Catching-up
|
-0.589***
(0.0386)
|
-0.572***
(0.0430)
|
-0.705***
(0.0637)
|
-0.471***
(0.0378)
|
|
Institutions
|
0.0951***
(0.0317)
|
0.0892**
(0.0359)
|
0.0965*
(0.04838)
|
0.127***
(0.0304)
|
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0394*
(0.0197)
|
-0.0549**
(0.0239)
|
-0.0153
(0.0380)
|
-0.00512
(0.0226)
|
|
(Debt>60) x
Institutions
|
0.131***
(0.0283)
|
0.151***
(0.0354)
|
0.202***
(0.0483)
|
0.0809*
(0.0430)
|
|
Constant
|
2.127***
(0.0988)
|
2.080***
(0.108)
|
2.505***
(0.152)
|
1.674***
(0.101)
|
|
Observations
|
208
|
78
|
25
|
52
|
|
R-squared
|
0.911
|
0.904
|
0.936
|
0.843
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
|
Average potential per capita GDP growth (in
PPP)
|
|
Outcome
|
23yr starting 1995
(Institutional delivery)
|
23yr starting 1995
(EFI)
|
35yr starting in 1983
(EFI)
|
|
Catching-up
|
-0.705***
(0.0637)
|
-0.664***
(0.0514)
|
-0.738***
(0.2122)
|
|
Institutions
|
0.0965*
(0.0484)
|
0.0318
(0.0233)
|
0.165***
(0.0473)
|
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0153
(0.0380)
|
-0.0155
(0.0402)
|
0.0438
(0.0896)
|
|
(Debt>60) x
Institutions
|
0.202***
(0.0483)
|
0.197***
(0.037)
|
-0.0847
(0.0862)
|
|
Constant
|
2.505***
(0.152)
|
2.423***
(0.135)
|
2.662***
(0.4835)
|
|
Observations
|
25
|
25
|
13
|
|
R-squared
|
0.936
|
0.943
|
0.768
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
Explanatory
variables
|
Institutions
|
(Debt>60) x
Institutions
|
Institutions
|
(Debt>60) x
Institutions
|
|
(Origin=English)
|
Omitted
|
Omitted
|
Omitted
|
Omitted
|
|
(Debt>60) x
(Origin=English)
|
Omitted
|
Omitted
|
Omitted
|
Omitted
|
|
(Origin=French)
|
-0.127
(0.0809)
|
0.0200
(0.0626)
|
-0.127
(0.165)
|
0.0200
(0.0248)
|
|
(Origin=Soviet)
|
-0.414***
(0.0895)
|
0.115*
(0.0693)
|
-0.414**
(0.190)
|
0.115
(0.0781)
|
|
(Origin=German)
|
0.0689
(0.115)
|
-0.00983
(0.0893)
|
0.0689
(0.143)
|
-0.00983
(0.0153)
|
|
(Origin=Scandinavian)
|
0.332***
(0.0900)
|
-0.0151
(0.0697)
|
0.332*
(0.163)
|
-0.0151
(0.0199)
|
|
(Debt>60)
|
0.0384
(0.144)
|
0.521***
(0.112)
|
0.0384
(0.194)
|
0.521***
(0.157)
|
|
(Debt>60) x
(Origin=French)
|
-0.289*
(0.160)
|
-0.392***
(0.124)
|
-0.289
(0.238)
|
-0.392*
(0.224)
|
|
(Debt>60) x
(Origin=Soviet)
|
-0.0295
(0.171)
|
-1.214***
(0.133)
|
-0.0295
(0.296)
|
-1.214***
(0.360)
|
|
(Debt>60) x
(Origin=German)
|
-0.00134
(0.196)
|
0.253*
(0.152)
|
-0.00134
(0.194)
|
0.253
(0.158)
|
|
(Debt>60) x
(Origin=Scandinavian)
|
-0.0884
(0.181)
|
0.374***
(0.141)
|
-0.0884
(0.212)
|
0.374**
(0.165)
|
|
Catching-up
|
0.782***
(0.0694)
|
0.133**
(0.0537)
|
0.782***
(0.155)
|
0.133
(0.0867)
|
|
Constant
|
-1.782***
(0.216)
|
-0.401**
(0.168)
|
-1.782***
(0.487)
|
-0.401
(0.261)
|
|
Observations
|
208
|
208
|
208
|
208
|
|
R-squared
|
0.843
|
0.691
|
0.843
|
0.691
|
|
Clustered
standard errors
|
NO
|
NO
|
YES
|
YES
|
|
F-stat of
excluded instruments
|
14.41
|
37.86
|
5.354
|
9.282
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
|
EU
(27)
|
EU + other OECD
(33)
|
Fixed ER
(21)
|
Flexible ER
(12)
|
|
Log GDP (PPP)
|
-0.611***
(0.0413)
|
-0.624***
(0.0654)
|
-0.567***
(0.0560)
|
-0.568***
(0.0810)
|
|
Institutions
|
0.116***
(0.0394)
|
0.159**
(0.0784)
|
0.0626
(0.0508)
|
0.163*
(0.0866)
|
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0357*
(0.0186)
|
-0.0612**
(0.0252)
|
-0.0611*
(0.0321)
|
-0.0693*
(0.0383)
|
|
(Debt>60) x
Institutions
|
0.123***
(0.0289)
|
0.106**
(0.0499)
|
0.131***
(0.0386)
|
0.0371
(0.0706)
|
|
Constant
|
2.181***
(0.105)
|
2.219***
(0.173)
|
2.067***
(0.137)
|
2.087***
(0.238)
|
|
Observations
|
208
|
246
|
160
|
86
|
|
R-squared
|
0.910
|
0.842
|
0.874
|
0.803
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Other OECD: CA, IS, JP, NO, TR, US. Flexible ER: CZ, GB, HU, PL, RO, SE, CA, IS, JP, NO, TR, US. Fixed ER (early EA and fixed exchange rate and late EA joining countries): CY, EE, LT, LV, MT, SI, SK, BG, DK, HR.
|
|
15 year average potential GDP growth (in PPP)
|
|
Debt threshold
|
T=60
Baseline
|
T=50
|
T=70
|
No threshold debt
centred at 60% for the interaction term
|
|
Log GDP (PPP)
|
-0.611***
(0.0413)
|
-0.590***
(0.0494)
|
-0.633***
(0.0422)
|
-0.556***
(0.0499)
|
|
Institutions
|
0.116***
(0.0394)
|
0.0932*
(0.0503)
|
0.151***
(0.0386)
|
0.157***
(0.0366)
|
|
(Debt>T)
|
-0.0357*
(0.0186)
|
-0.0641***
(0.0235)
|
-0.0175
(0.0252)
|
-0.000419
(0.000475)
|
|
(Debt>T) x
Institutions
|
0.123***
(0.0289)
|
0.133***
(0.0363)
|
0.120***
(0.0393)
|
0.00316***
(0.00111)
|
|
Constant
|
2.181***
(0.105)
|
2.140***
(0.123)
|
2.238***
(0.108)
|
2.012***
(0.129)
|
|
Observations
|
208
|
208
|
208
|
208
|
|
R-squared
|
0.910
|
0.925
|
0.899
|
0.917
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
|
15 year average potential GDP growth (in PPP)
|
|
Catching-up
|
-0.611***
(0.0413)
|
-0.617***
(0.0434)
|
-0.602***
(0.0438)
|
-0.561***
(0.0568)
|
-0.591***
(0.0505)
|
-0.570***
(0.0544)
|
-0.594***
(0.0640)
|
|
Institutions
|
0.116***
(0.0394)
|
0.123***
(0.0408)
|
0.117**
(0.0531)
|
0.0775*
(0.0430)
|
0.0954*
(0.0540)
|
0.0970**
(0.0440)
|
0.116*
(0.0636)
|
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0357*
(0.0186)
|
-0.0315*
(0.0182)
|
-0.0285
(0.0212)
|
-0.0462**
(0.0198)
|
-0.0277
(0.0208)
|
-0.0265
(0.0239)
|
-0.000569
(0.0232)
|
|
(Debt>60) x
Institutions
|
0.123***
(0.0289)
|
0.122***
(0.0298)
|
0.129***
(0.0265)
|
0.120***
(0.0245)
|
0.115***
(0.0287)
|
0.0988***
(0.0331)
|
0.0817***
(0.0290)
|
|
Trade openness
|
|
0.0342
(0.0370)
|
|
|
|
|
0.0304
(0.0330)
|
|
Government
expenditure
|
|
|
-0.101
(0.135)
|
|
|
|
-0.135
(0.140)
|
|
Savings rate
|
|
|
|
-0.00151
(0.00174)
|
|
|
0.00216
(0.00242)
|
|
Participation rate
|
|
|
|
|
0.00198
(0.00291)
|
|
0.00253
(0.00318)
|
|
Education
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00127
(0.000785)
|
0.00162**
(0.000710)
|
|
Constant
|
2.181***
(0.105)
|
2.046***
(0.182)
|
2.072***
(0.115)
|
2.071***
(0.132)
|
1.991***
(0.311)
|
2.077***
(0.141)
|
1.687***
(0.228)
|
|
Observations
|
208
|
208
|
208
|
195
|
208
|
173
|
166
|
|
R-squared
|
0.910
|
0.913
|
0.913
|
0.925
|
0.912
|
0.896
|
0.919
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
|
15 year average potential GDP growth (in PPP)
|
|
Institutions
|
WGI
Baseline
|
Economic
Complexity
|
Chinn-Ito
Openness
|
Economic Freedom
Fraser
|
Economic Freedom
Heritage
|
|
Catching-up
|
-0.611***
(0.0413)
|
-0.559***
(0.0306)
|
-0.690***
(0.0776)
|
-0.773***
(0.0870)
|
-0.516***
(0.0794)
|
|
Institutions
|
0.116***
(0.0394)
|
0.134***
(0.0464)
|
0.144***
(0.0487)
|
0.202**
(0.0848)
|
0.00375
(0.00889)
|
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0357*
(0.0186)
|
0.0235
(0.0428)
|
0.0358
(0.0292)
|
0.0189
(0.0298)
|
0.000462
(0.0459)
|
|
(Debt>60) x
Institutions
|
0.123***
(0.0289)
|
0.0875
(0.0697)
|
-0.0569
(0.0682)
|
0.115**
(0.0501)
|
0.0122***
(0.00308)
|
|
Constant
|
2.181***
(0.105)
|
2.019***
(0.0696)
|
2.399***
(0.200)
|
2.582***
(0.227)
|
1.934***
(0.194)
|
|
Observations
|
208
|
454
|
458
|
470
|
200
|
|
First
observation
|
1995
|
1975
|
1975
|
1975
|
1995
|
|
R-squared
|
0.910
|
0.855
|
0.716
|
0.803
|
0.883
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
|
15 year average potential GDP growth (in PPP)
|
|
Variables
|
EU27
(baseline)
|
EU27
(excl. GR)
|
EU (15)
|
EU (15)
(excl. GR)
|
CEECs (10)
|
|
Catching-up
|
-0.589***
(0.0386)
|
-0.573***
(0.0350)
|
-0.407***
(0.0422)
|
-0.398***
(0.0426)
|
-0.634***
(0.0712)
|
|
Institutions
|
0.0951***
(0.0317)
|
0.0833***
(0.0288)
|
0.0671**
(0.0271)
|
0.0629**
(0.0262)
|
0.0722
(0.0777)
|
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0394*
(0.0197)
|
-0.0294*
(0.0164)
|
-0.0519**
(0.0228)
|
-0.0342
(0.0194)
|
-0.120**
(0.0436)
|
|
(Debt>60) x
Institutions
|
0.131***
(0.0283)
|
0.120***
(0.0231)
|
0.142***
(0.0359)
|
0.117***
(0.0335)
|
0.0626
(0.0504)
|
|
Constant
|
2.127***
(0.0988)
|
2.085***
(0.0897)
|
1.605***
(0.124)
|
1.579***
(0.126)
|
2.210***
(0.192)
|
|
Observations
|
208
|
200
|
120
|
112
|
80
|
|
R-squared
|
0.911
|
0.914
|
0.659
|
0.675
|
0.862
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
|
15 year average potential GDP growth (in PPP)
|
|
Variables
|
EU27
(baseline)
|
EU27
(excl. GR)
|
EU (15)
|
EU (15)
(excl. GR)
|
|
Catching-up
|
-0.611***
(0.0413)
|
-0.596***
(0.0399)
|
-0.415***
(0.0513)
|
-0.413***
(0.0541)
|
|
Institutions
|
0.116***
(0.0394)
|
0.104***
(0.0374)
|
0.0787**
(0.0394)
|
0.0787**
(0.0401)
|
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0357*
(0.0186)
|
-0.0284
(0.0173)
|
-0.0419*
(0.0220)
|
-0.0172
(0.0218)
|
|
(Debt>60) x
Institutions
|
0.123***
(0.0289)
|
0.122***
(0.0293)
|
0.122***
(0.0362)
|
0.0868**
(0.0366)
|
|
Constant
|
2.181***
(0.105)
|
2.145***
(0.100)
|
1.621***
(0.148)
|
1.615***
(0.156)
|
|
Observations
|
208
|
200
|
120
|
112
|
|
R-squared
|
0.910
|
0.913
|
0.657
|
0.672
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
|
15 year average potential GDP growth (in PPP)
|
|
Catching-up
|
-0.522***
(0.0179)
|
-0.539***
(0.0172)
|
-0.484***
(0.0281)
|
-0.484***
(0.0228)
|
-0.507***
(0.0310)
|
-0.468***
(0.0345)
|
-0.488***
(0.0304)
|
|
Institutions
|
0.0676**
(0.0321)
|
0.0923***
(0.0227)
|
0.0254
(0.0373)
|
0.00484
(0.0282)
|
0.0113
(0.0308)
|
0.00737
(0.0292)
|
0.0262
(0.0323)
|
|
(Debt>60)
|
0.0230
(0.0326)
|
0.0133
(0.0283)
|
-0.00750
(0.0364)
|
-0.0412
(0.0241)
|
-0.0225
(0.0275)
|
-0.0130
(0.0196)
|
0.00696
(0.0204)
|
|
(Debt>60) x
Institutions
|
0.0535
(0.0389)
|
0.0136
(0.0432)
|
0.103***
(0.0355)
|
0.129***
(0.0284)
|
0.107**
(0.0394)
|
0.0955***
(0.0246)
|
0.0610**
(0.0279)
|
|
Trade openness
|
0.123***
(0.0334)
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0658**
(0.0284)
|
|
Government
expenditure
|
-0.135
(0.131)
|
|
|
|
|
|
-0.128
(0.113)
|
|
Savings rate
|
-0.00126
(0.00179)
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00234
(0.00257)
|
|
Participation
rate
|
0.00294*
(0.00147)
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00639***
(0.00198)
|
|
Education
|
0.00126
(0.000925)
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00124
(0.000847)
|
|
Constant
|
1.941***
(0.0448)
|
1.469***
(0.130)
|
1.749***
(0.125)
|
1.882***
(0.0556)
|
1.715***
(0.0906)
|
1.821***
(0.0927)
|
0.995***
(0.194)
|
|
Observations
|
454
|
454
|
270
|
311
|
307
|
200
|
183
|
|
R-squared
|
0.873
|
0.901
|
0.866
|
0.900
|
0.896
|
0.840
|
0.925
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
|
15 year average potential GDP growth (in PPP)
|
|
Catching-up
|
-0.538***
(0.0161)
|
-0.546***
(0.0175)
|
-0.503***
(0.0245)
|
-0.515***
(0.0248)
|
-0.532***
(0.0220)
|
-0.488***
(0.0262)
|
-0.530***
(0.0444)
|
|
Institutions
|
0.0371***
(0.0102)
|
0.0353***
(0.00996)
|
0.0254**
(0.00915)
|
0.0241***
(0.00861)
|
0.0154
(0.00946)
|
0.0241**
(0.00959)
|
0.0276***
(0.00956)
|
|
(Debt>60)
|
0.0303
(0.0312)
|
0.0205
(0.0254)
|
-0.00282
(0.0345)
|
-0.0181
(0.0246)
|
0.00283
(0.0213)
|
0.00279
(0.0244)
|
-0.000956
(0.0197)
|
|
(Debt>60) x
Institutions
|
-0.00929
(0.0191)
|
-0.00528
(0.0170)
|
0.00941
(0.0148)
|
0.0216
(0.0166)
|
0.0293**
(0.0129)
|
0.00408
(0.0154)
|
0.0147
(0.0145)
|
|
Trade openness
|
|
0.0680**
(0.0322)
|
|
|
|
|
0.0639**
(0.0286)
|
|
Government
expenditure
|
-
|
|
0.0435
(0.0879)
|
|
|
|
-0.0256
(0.0901)
|
|
Savings rate
|
|
|
|
0.000670
(0.00168)
|
|
|
0.00402
(0.00296)
|
|
Participation
rate
|
|
|
|
|
0.00313**
(0.00145)
|
|
0.00663**
(0.00259)
|
|
Education
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00161**
(0.000698)
|
0.00175*
(0.000903)
|
|
Constant
|
2.000***
(0.0467)
|
1.735***
(0.140)
|
1.869***
(0.114)
|
1.935***
(0.0565)
|
1.764***
(0.0997)
|
1.864***
(0.0715)
|
1.155***
(0.229)
|
|
Observations
|
458
|
458
|
280
|
307
|
316
|
207
|
187
|
|
R-squared
|
0.865
|
0.875
|
0.842
|
0.885
|
0.889
|
0.826
|
0.920
|
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
|
15 year average potential GDP growth (in PPP)
|
|
Catching-up
|
-0.596***
(0.0255)
|
-0.589***
(0.0230)
|
-0.576***
(0.0273)
|
-0.565***
(0.0324)
|
-0.573***
(0.0241)
|
-0.549***
(0.0349)
|
-0.560***
(0.0623)
|
|
Institutions
|
0.0757***
(0.0218)
|
0.0681***
(0.0176)
|
0.0555***
(0.0195)
|
0.0468***
(0.0162)
|
0.0378*
(0.0191)
|
0.0581**
(0.0268)
|
0.0497*
(0.0244)
|
|
(Debt>60)
|
0.0226
(0.0239)
|
0.0172
(0.0218)
|
-0.0188
(0.0180)
|
-0.0189
(0.0186)
|
-0.00253
(0.0169)
|
-0.0307
(0.0182)
|
-0.00529
(0.0219)
|
|
(Debt>60) x
Institutions
|
0.0522**
(0.0206)
|
0.0465*
(0.0241)
|
0.104***
(0.0178)
|
0.0707**
(0.0271)
|
0.0808***
(0.0234)
|
0.104***
(0.0277)
|
0.0475*
(0.0273)
|
|
Trade openness
|
|
0.0410
(0.0317)
|
|
|
|
|
0.0444
(0.0330)
|
|
Government
expenditure
|
-
|
|
-0.0290
(0.0777)
|
|
|
|
0.00126
(0.102)
|
|
Savings rate
|
|
|
|
0.00103
(0.00169)
|
|
|
0.00392
(0.00281)
|
|
Participation
rate
|
|
|
|
|
0.00306**
(0.00146)
|
|
0.00652**
(0.00265)
|
|
Education
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00128*
(0.000692)
|
0.00154
(0.000968)
|
|
Constant
|
2.139***
(0.0664)
|
1.951***
(0.136)
|
2.062***
(0.0898)
|
2.057***
(0.0722)
|
1.868***
(0.113)
|
2.017***
(0.0941)
|
1.343***
(0.285)
|
|
Observations
|
470
|
470
|
286
|
319
|
323
|
207
|
187
|
|
R-squared
|
0.882
|
0.886
|
0.881
|
0.903
|
0.904
|
0.867
|
0.916
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
|
15 year average potential GDP
growth (in PPP)
|
|
Catching-up
|
-0.519***
(0.0264)
|
-0.513***
(0.0276)
|
-0.537***
(0.0306)
|
-0.496***
(0.0296)
|
-0.527***
(0.0224)
|
-0.489***
(0.0250)
|
-0.520***
(0.0513)
|
|
Institutions
|
0.00445*
(0.00238)
|
0.00401*
(0.00226)
|
0.00542**
(0.00212)
|
0.00276
(0.00212)
|
0.00409
(0.00247)
|
0.00410
(0.00275)
|
0.00344
(0.00229)
|
|
(Debt>60)
|
0.00215
(0.0248)
|
0.00259
(0.0234)
|
-0.00067
(0.0260)
|
-0.0135
(0.0281)
|
0.0220
(0.0211)
|
0.00771
(0.0230)
|
0.0219
(0.0209)
|
|
(Debt>60)
x Institutions
|
0.0108***
(0.00277)
|
0.0104***
(0.00245)
|
0.0102***
(0.00320)
|
0.0102***
(0.00290)
|
0.01000***
(0.00245)
|
0.0106***
(0.00376)
|
0.00303
(0.00315)
|
|
Trade
openness
|
|
0.0313
(0.0370)
|
|
|
|
|
0.0493
(0.0376)
|
|
Government
expenditure
|
-
|
|
0.0915
(0.131)
|
|
|
|
0.0353
(0.137)
|
|
Savings
rate
|
|
|
|
-0.00132
(0.00215)
|
|
|
0.00322
(0.00295)
|
|
Participation
rate
|
|
|
|
|
0.00469**
(0.00201)
|
|
0.00719***
(0.00249)
|
|
Education
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00171***
(0.000603)
|
0.00145
(0.000910)
|
|
Constant
|
1.941***
(0.0694)
|
1.786***
(0.185)
|
2.062***
(0.167)
|
1.900***
(0.0706)
|
1.625***
(0.160)
|
1.860***
(0.0698)
|
1.205***
(0.286)
|
|
Observations
|
200
|
200
|
200
|
187
|
200
|
170
|
163
|
|
R-squared
|
0.883
|
0.886
|
0.885
|
0.896
|
0.893
|
0.875
|
0.909
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
Base
Span
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
|
|
1
|
-2.9
|
-2.1
|
-2.7
|
-1.1
|
0.0
|
-3.4
|
-1.7
|
-1.9
|
-3.1
|
-2.2
|
-3.1
|
-3.3
|
-2.9
|
-2.3
|
-1.3
|
-1.4
|
-1.7
|
0.1
|
-1.0
|
1
|
|
2
|
-2.6
|
-2.9
|
-2.5
|
-0.7
|
-2.0
|
-4.0
|
-2.3
|
-2.8
|
-3.3
|
-3.0
|
-3.9
|
-5.0
|
-3.2
|
-2.5
|
-1.4
|
-2.1
|
-1.1
|
-0.6
|
-0.9
|
2
|
|
3
|
-3.5
|
-3.1
|
-2.4
|
-2.0
|
-2.8
|
-4.3
|
-2.8
|
-2.9
|
-3.6
|
-4.0
|
-5.2
|
-4.8
|
-3.1
|
-2.5
|
-2.2
|
-1.6
|
-1.5
|
-0.8
|
-0.9
|
3
|
|
4
|
-3.5
|
-3.2
|
-3.3
|
-2.7
|
-3.5
|
-4.8
|
-3.1
|
-3.3
|
-4.4
|
-5.2
|
-5.1
|
-4.5
|
-3.1
|
-3.1
|
-2.3
|
-1.9
|
-1.6
|
-0.9
|
|
4
|
|
5
|
-3.8
|
-4.1
|
-3.6
|
-3.4
|
-3.9
|
-5.0
|
-3.4
|
-4.4
|
-5.5
|
-5.1
|
-4.8
|
-4.3
|
-3.4
|
-3.2
|
-2.6
|
-2.0
|
-1.7
|
|
|
5
|
|
6
|
-4.6
|
-4.3
|
-4.3
|
-3.9
|
-4.2
|
-5.4
|
-4.5
|
-5.5
|
-5.3
|
-4.9
|
-4.8
|
-4.5
|
-3.5
|
-3.5
|
-2.8
|
-2.0
|
|
|
|
6
|
|
7
|
-5.0
|
-4.8
|
-4.7
|
-4.1
|
-4.7
|
-6.2
|
-5.5
|
-5.5
|
-4.9
|
-4.9
|
-5.0
|
-4.5
|
-3.6
|
-3.7
|
-2.9
|
|
|
|
|
7
|
|
8
|
-5.3
|
-5.1
|
-4.8
|
-4.7
|
-5.6
|
-7.8
|
-5.6
|
-5.1
|
-4.8
|
-5.2
|
-5.1
|
-4.5
|
-3.7
|
-3.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
8
|
|
9
|
-5.4
|
-5.4
|
-5.2
|
-5.5
|
-7.2
|
-8.0
|
-5.1
|
-4.9
|
-4.9
|
-5.3
|
-5.1
|
-4.4
|
-3.7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9
|
|
10
|
-5.7
|
-6.0
|
-6.1
|
-7.0
|
-7.6
|
-7.9
|
-5.0
|
-4.9
|
-5.0
|
-5.2
|
-5.0
|
-4.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10
|
|
11
|
-6.0
|
-6.9
|
-7.5
|
-7.2
|
-7.4
|
-8.1
|
-5.0
|
-4.9
|
-4.8
|
-5.0
|
-4.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11
|
|
12
|
-6.9
|
-8.4
|
-7.8
|
-7.2
|
-7.6
|
-8.4
|
-4.9
|
-4.6
|
-4.6
|
-4.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12
|
|
13
|
-8.5
|
-9.0
|
-7.7
|
-7.4
|
-7.9
|
-8.2
|
-4.7
|
-4.4
|
-4.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13
|
|
14
|
-9.0
|
-9.0
|
-7.9
|
-7.6
|
-7.7
|
-8.0
|
-4.5
|
-4.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14
|
|
15
|
-9.1
|
-9.2
|
-8.2
|
-7.5
|
-7.4
|
-7.6
|
-4.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15
|
|
16
|
-9.3
|
-9.5
|
-7.8
|
-7.2
|
-7.0
|
-7.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16
|
|
17
|
-9.7
|
-9.1
|
-7.5
|
-6.9
|
-6.7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17
|
|
18
|
-9.1
|
-8.7
|
-7.2
|
-6.6
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
18
|
|
19
|
-8.7
|
-8.3
|
-6.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
19
|
|
20
|
-8.2
|
-7.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20
|
|
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
|
|
Base
Span
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
|
|
1
|
2.7
|
1.8
|
1.9
|
1.3
|
-1.7
|
1.8
|
0.1
|
0.7
|
0.9
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
0.1
|
-0.2
|
1.0
|
-0.8
|
-0.7
|
1
|
|
2
|
2.3
|
2.2
|
1.9
|
-0.1
|
0.1
|
1.5
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
0.8
|
0.1
|
0.8
|
1.9
|
1.4
|
1.0
|
-0.3
|
0.7
|
0.3
|
-0.7
|
-0.7
|
2
|
|
3
|
2.8
|
2.2
|
1.2
|
0.8
|
0.3
|
1.7
|
0.5
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
0.9
|
1.4
|
2.0
|
1.2
|
0.7
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
-0.7
|
-0.7
|
3
|
|
4
|
2.7
|
1.8
|
1.7
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
1.7
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
1.2
|
1.4
|
1.7
|
1.6
|
0.9
|
1.2
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
-0.6
|
|
4
|
|
5
|
2.5
|
2.1
|
1.6
|
1.2
|
0.8
|
1.6
|
0.5
|
1.4
|
1.5
|
1.6
|
1.5
|
1.4
|
1.3
|
1.3
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
|
|
5
|
|
6
|
2.8
|
2.0
|
2.0
|
1.2
|
0.7
|
1.5
|
1.2
|
1.7
|
1.5
|
1.4
|
1.3
|
1.6
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
|
|
|
6
|
|
7
|
2.7
|
2.2
|
1.9
|
1.1
|
0.7
|
1.7
|
1.5
|
1.8
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
1.1
|
|
|
|
|
7
|
|
8
|
2.7
|
2.1
|
1.6
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
2.1
|
1.7
|
1.4
|
1.0
|
1.4
|
1.7
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
|
|
|
|
|
8
|
|
9
|
2.5
|
1.9
|
1.3
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
2.3
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
1.5
|
1.8
|
1.7
|
1.6
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9
|
|
10
|
2.1
|
1.6
|
1.2
|
1.3
|
1.3
|
2.3
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
1.5
|
1.8
|
1.6
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10
|
|
11
|
1.7
|
1.4
|
1.3
|
1.3
|
1.4
|
2.3
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
1.1
|
1.5
|
1.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11
|
|
12
|
1.4
|
1.5
|
1.1
|
1.3
|
1.5
|
2.4
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
1.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12
|
|
13
|
1.5
|
1.3
|
1.1
|
1.4
|
1.5
|
2.4
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13
|
|
14
|
1.2
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
1.4
|
1.5
|
2.4
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14
|
|
15
|
1.0
|
1.3
|
1.3
|
1.4
|
1.5
|
2.4
|
0.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15
|
|
16
|
1.0
|
1.5
|
1.3
|
1.4
|
1.5
|
2.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16
|
|
17
|
1.2
|
1.4
|
1.3
|
1.4
|
1.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17
|
|
18
|
1.1
|
1.4
|
1.3
|
1.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
18
|
|
19
|
1.0
|
1.4
|
1.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
19
|
|
20
|
0.9
|
1.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20
|
|
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
|
|
Base
Span
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
|
|
1
|
1.2
|
1.6
|
-1.5
|
-0.2
|
-2.1
|
-0.2
|
-0.8
|
-1.1
|
0.5
|
-1.7
|
-3.2
|
-0.5
|
1.4
|
0.3
|
-1.5
|
-1.7
|
-0.5
|
-1.6
|
-2.1
|
1
|
|
2
|
1.2
|
1.0
|
-0.2
|
-1.4
|
-1.1
|
0.0
|
-1.1
|
-1.1
|
-0.1
|
-2.5
|
-1.7
|
0.4
|
0.9
|
-0.5
|
-2.2
|
-1.2
|
-1.2
|
-2.0
|
-2.2
|
2
|
|
3
|
1.3
|
1.4
|
0.0
|
-1.0
|
-0.8
|
-0.5
|
-1.2
|
-0.9
|
-0.9
|
-1.2
|
-0.8
|
0.4
|
0.0
|
-1.0
|
-1.1
|
-1.6
|
-1.4
|
-2.2
|
-2.2
|
3
|
|
4
|
1.4
|
1.6
|
0.3
|
-0.9
|
-1.0
|
-0.9
|
-1.0
|
-1.1
|
-0.1
|
-0.7
|
-0.5
|
-0.4
|
-0.6
|
-0.5
|
-0.9
|
-1.6
|
-1.5
|
-2.2
|
|
4
|
|
5
|
1.9
|
1.8
|
-0.1
|
-1.1
|
-1.3
|
-0.8
|
-1.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
-0.5
|
-0.9
|
-1.0
|
-0.5
|
-0.3
|
-0.6
|
-1.7
|
-1.6
|
|
|
5
|
|
6
|
2.2
|
1.5
|
-0.5
|
-1.3
|
-1.2
|
-1.1
|
-0.2
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
-1.2
|
-1.3
|
-0.9
|
-0.4
|
-0.2
|
-0.5
|
-1.7
|
|
|
|
6
|
|
7
|
2.0
|
1.1
|
-0.9
|
-1.1
|
-1.5
|
-0.9
|
-0.1
|
0.3
|
-0.7
|
-1.7
|
-1.2
|
-0.8
|
-0.5
|
-0.1
|
-0.4
|
|
|
|
|
7
|
|
8
|
1.6
|
0.7
|
-0.7
|
-1.1
|
-1.2
|
-0.7
|
0.0
|
-0.4
|
-1.2
|
-1.7
|
-1.1
|
-0.9
|
-0.6
|
-0.1
|
|
|
|
|
|
8
|
|
9
|
1.1
|
0.8
|
-0.7
|
-1.0
|
-1.2
|
-0.5
|
-0.6
|
-0.7
|
-1.2
|
-1.7
|
-1.1
|
-1.0
|
-0.6
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9
|
|
10
|
1.0
|
0.8
|
-0.4
|
-1.1
|
-1.2
|
-0.8
|
-1.0
|
-1.0
|
-1.4
|
-1.8
|
-1.1
|
-1.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10
|
|
11
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
-0.5
|
-1.2
|
-1.2
|
-0.9
|
-1.2
|
-1.2
|
-1.6
|
-1.9
|
-1.1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11
|
|
12
|
0.5
|
0.6
|
-0.8
|
-1.2
|
-1.3
|
-1.3
|
-1.5
|
-1.4
|
-1.8
|
-1.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12
|
|
13
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
-0.8
|
-1.3
|
-1.6
|
-1.2
|
-1.7
|
-1.5
|
-1.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13
|
|
14
|
0.1
|
0.4
|
-1.0
|
-1.6
|
-1.6
|
-1.2
|
-1.8
|
-1.7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14
|
|
15
|
-0.1
|
0.2
|
-1.3
|
-1.5
|
-1.6
|
-1.2
|
-1.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15
|
|
16
|
-0.4
|
-0.1
|
-1.2
|
-1.5
|
-1.5
|
-1.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16
|
|
17
|
-0.5
|
-0.1
|
-1.3
|
-1.4
|
-1.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17
|
|
18
|
-0.7
|
-0.1
|
-1.3
|
-1.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
18
|
|
19
|
-0.8
|
-0.2
|
-1.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
19
|
|
20
|
-0.9
|
-0.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20
|
|
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
|
|
Base
Span
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
|
|
1
|
-1.3
|
-1.4
|
0.4
|
-1.2
|
-0.7
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.0
|
0.5
|
0.3
|
0.7
|
-0.4
|
0.2
|
1.0
|
1.9
|
1.9
|
0.8
|
2.6
|
3.0
|
1
|
|
2
|
-1.0
|
-0.7
|
0.1
|
-1.0
|
0.0
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.6
|
0.0
|
-0.3
|
1.1
|
1.5
|
2.7
|
1.4
|
2.1
|
3.3
|
3.0
|
2
|
|
3
|
-1.0
|
-0.3
|
-0.4
|
-0.6
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.5
|
1.5
|
2.0
|
2.0
|
2.4
|
2.6
|
3.4
|
3.1
|
3
|
|
4
|
-0.7
|
-0.4
|
-0.2
|
-0.2
|
-0.1
|
0.0
|
0.3
|
0.4
|
-0.3
|
0.0
|
0.6
|
1.1
|
1.9
|
1.7
|
2.3
|
2.7
|
2.8
|
3.4
|
|
4
|
|
5
|
-1.1
|
0.0
|
-0.5
|
-0.2
|
-0.1
|
0.0
|
0.3
|
-0.3
|
-0.1
|
0.5
|
1.0
|
1.5
|
1.6
|
2.0
|
2.4
|
2.9
|
2.9
|
|
|
5
|
|
6
|
-1.0
|
0.0
|
-0.4
|
-0.2
|
0.0
|
-0.1
|
-0.1
|
-0.2
|
0.4
|
1.1
|
1.4
|
1.3
|
1.9
|
2.1
|
2.4
|
3.0
|
|
|
|
6
|
|
7
|
-0.8
|
0.1
|
-0.5
|
0.0
|
-0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.3
|
1.1
|
1.5
|
1.2
|
1.7
|
1.8
|
2.1
|
2.4
|
|
|
|
|
7
|
|
8
|
-0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.3
|
0.2
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.9
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
1.5
|
1.6
|
1.7
|
2.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
8
|
|
9
|
-0.3
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
0.6
|
0.5
|
1.1
|
0.9
|
1.2
|
1.4
|
1.8
|
1.5
|
1.6
|
1.7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9
|
|
10
|
0.2
|
1.0
|
1.1
|
0.8
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
1.2
|
1.4
|
1.9
|
1.8
|
1.4
|
1.6
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10
|
|
11
|
0.9
|
1.5
|
1.3
|
1.5
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.3
|
1.8
|
2.0
|
1.8
|
1.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11
|
|
12
|
1.4
|
1.8
|
2.1
|
1.9
|
1.8
|
1.9
|
1.7
|
1.9
|
2.0
|
1.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12
|
|
13
|
1.6
|
2.8
|
2.4
|
2.2
|
2.2
|
2.0
|
1.8
|
2.0
|
2.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13
|
|
14
|
2.5
|
3.1
|
2.6
|
2.6
|
2.2
|
1.9
|
1.8
|
2.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14
|
|
15
|
3.0
|
3.4
|
2.9
|
2.7
|
2.2
|
1.8
|
1.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15
|
|
16
|
3.4
|
3.7
|
2.7
|
2.5
|
2.1
|
1.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16
|
|
17
|
3.4
|
3.5
|
2.6
|
2.5
|
2.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17
|
|
18
|
3.4
|
3.4
|
2.4
|
2.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
18
|
|
19
|
3.4
|
3.3
|
2.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
19
|
|
20
|
3.4
|
3.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20
|
|
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
|
|
|
15-year average per capita potential growth
|
|
Explanatory
variables
|
OLS
|
2SLS (LO)
|
2SLS (LO mod)
|
|
Log GDP (PPP)
|
-0.589***
(0.0386)
|
-0.611***
(0.0413)
|
-0.579***
(0.0424)
|
|
Institutional
delivery
|
0.0951***
(0.0317)
|
0.116***
(0.0394)
|
0.0839**
(0.0408)
|
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0394*
(0.0197)
|
-0.0357*
(0.0186)
|
-0.0420**
(0.0195)
|
|
(Debt>60) x
Institutional delivery
|
0.131***
(0.0283)
|
0.123***
(0.0289)
|
0.139***
(0.0298)
|
|
Constant
|
2.127***
(0.0988)
|
2.181***
(0.105)
|
2.100***
(0.107)
|
|
Observations
|
208
|
208
|
208
|
|
R-squared
|
0.911
|
0.910
|
0.911
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
|
15-year average per capita
potential growth
|
|
Explanatory
variables
|
OLS
|
2SLS (LO)
|
2SLS (gen. div.)
|
|
Log GDP
(PPP)
|
-0.589***
(0.0386)
|
-0.611***
(0.0413)
|
-0.674***
(0.121)
|
|
Institutional
delivery
|
0.0951***
(0.0317)
|
0.116***
(0.0394)
|
0.163
(0.124)
|
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0394*
(0.0197)
|
-0.0357*
(0.0186)
|
-0.0357
(0.0276)
|
|
(Debt>60)
x Institutional delivery
|
0.131***
(0.0283)
|
0.123***
(0.0289)
|
0.161**
(0.0635)
|
|
Constant
|
2.127***
(0.0988)
|
2.181***
(0.105)
|
2.341***
(0.316)
|
|
Observations
|
208
|
208
|
208
|
|
R-squared
|
0.911
|
0.910
|
0.899
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
|
15-year average per capita
potential growth
|
|
Explanatory
variables
|
OLS
|
2SLS
|
OLS Kunčić
|
2SLS Kunčić
|
|
Log GDP
(PPP)
|
-0.589***
(0.0386)
|
-0.611***
(0.0413)
|
-0.559***
(0.0354)
|
-0.693***
(0.0930)
|
|
Institutions
|
0.0951***
(0.0317)
|
0.116***
(0.0394)
|
0.457***
(0.163)
|
1.120**
(0.481)
|
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0394*
(0.0197)
|
-0.0357*
(0.0186)
|
-0.0145
(0.0245)
|
-0.0155
(0.0267)
|
|
(Debt>60)
x Institutional delivery
|
0.131***
(0.0283)
|
0.123***
(0.0289)
|
0.616***
(0.184)
|
1.037**
(0.428)
|
|
Constant
|
2.127***
(0.0988)
|
2.181***
(0.105)
|
2.045***
(0.0955)
|
2.381***
(0.236)
|
|
Observations
|
208
|
208
|
277
|
277
|
|
R-squared
|
0.911
|
0.910
|
0.849
|
0.798
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
|
WGI delivery (not transformed)
|
|
|
|
1996
|
>1.33
|
2008
|
2014
|
|
GR
|
Early EA
|
0.70
|
|
0.60
|
0.22
|
|
IT
|
Early EA
|
0.75
|
|
0.48
|
0.32
|
|
FR
|
Early EA
|
1.26
|
|
1.43
|
1.31
|
|
PT
|
Early EA
|
1.30
|
|
1.04
|
0.95
|
|
ES
|
Early EA
|
1.30
|
|
1.11
|
0.85
|
|
BE
|
Early EA
|
1.41
|
x
|
1.36
|
1.41
|
|
IE
|
Early EA
|
1.64
|
x
|
1.72
|
1.69
|
|
DE
|
Early EA
|
1.70
|
x
|
1.62
|
1.78
|
|
AT
|
Early EA
|
1.79
|
x
|
1.81
|
1.61
|
|
LU
|
Early EA
|
1.87
|
x
|
1.77
|
1.82
|
|
FI
|
Early EA
|
1.89
|
x
|
1.99
|
2.06
|
|
NL
|
Early EA
|
1.92
|
x
|
1.84
|
1.90
|
|
LV
|
New EA
|
0.10
|
|
0.63
|
0.84
|
|
SK
|
New EA
|
0.40
|
|
0.72
|
0.59
|
|
LT
|
New EA
|
0.45
|
|
0.61
|
0.89
|
|
EE
|
New EA
|
0.59
|
|
1.15
|
1.34
|
|
MT
|
New EA
|
0.88
|
|
1.28
|
1.05
|
|
SI
|
New EA
|
1.07
|
|
0.98
|
0.83
|
|
CY
|
New EA
|
1.28
|
|
1.33
|
1.09
|
|
BG
|
Non EA
|
-0.41
|
|
0.05
|
0.08
|
|
HR
|
Non EA
|
-0.38
|
|
0.27
|
0.40
|
|
RO
|
Non EA
|
-0.17
|
|
0.02
|
0.15
|
|
PL
|
Non EA
|
0.66
|
|
0.54
|
0.82
|
|
CZ
|
Non EA
|
0.78
|
|
0.83
|
0.87
|
|
HU
|
Non EA
|
0.78
|
|
0.80
|
0.48
|
|
SE
|
Non EA
|
1.84
|
x
|
1.93
|
1.93
|
|
GB
|
Non EA
|
1.90
|
x
|
1.68
|
1.77
|
|
DK
|
Non EA
|
1.96
|
x
|
2.14
|
1.97
|
|
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2001
|
2008
|
2014
|
|
BE
|
128.0
|
123.2
|
118.2
|
114.4
|
108.8
|
107.6
|
92.4
|
106.7
|
|
IT
|
116.3
|
113.7
|
110.8
|
109.6
|
105.1
|
104.7
|
102.3
|
132.3
|
|
GR
|
101.2
|
99.3
|
97.2
|
98.6
|
104.7
|
106.8
|
109.4
|
178.6
|
|
BG
|
|
97.3
|
69.3
|
76.1
|
71.2
|
64.7
|
13.0
|
27.0
|
|
AT
|
68.0
|
63.2
|
63.6
|
66.4
|
65.9
|
66.5
|
68.5
|
84.2
|
|
MT
|
38.7
|
46.6
|
51.2
|
62.1
|
60.9
|
65.5
|
62.7
|
66.9
|
|
SE
|
70.3
|
68.2
|
66.7
|
61.5
|
50.6
|
51.7
|
36.8
|
44.9
|
|
ES
|
65.6
|
64.4
|
62.5
|
60.9
|
58.0
|
54.2
|
39.4
|
99.3
|
|
FR
|
59.7
|
61.1
|
61.0
|
60.2
|
58.7
|
58.2
|
68.1
|
95.6
|
|
DE
|
57.6
|
58.8
|
59.4
|
60.0
|
58.9
|
57.7
|
65.0
|
74.9
|
|
HU
|
71.6
|
62.1
|
60.0
|
59.9
|
55.1
|
51.7
|
71.6
|
76.2
|
|
NL
|
71.2
|
65.6
|
62.5
|
58.2
|
51.4
|
48.7
|
54.5
|
68.2
|
|
DK
|
69.9
|
65.8
|
61.8
|
58.2
|
52.4
|
48.5
|
33.4
|
44.6
|
|
CY
|
49.2
|
53.2
|
54.8
|
55.1
|
55.1
|
56.9
|
45.1
|
108.2
|
|
PT
|
59.5
|
55.2
|
51.8
|
51.0
|
50.3
|
53.4
|
71.7
|
130.2
|
|
SK
|
30.5
|
33.0
|
33.9
|
47.1
|
49.6
|
48.3
|
28.2
|
53.5
|
|
IE
|
69.9
|
61.6
|
51.5
|
46.7
|
36.1
|
33.2
|
42.4
|
107.5
|
|
FI
|
55.3
|
52.2
|
46.9
|
44.1
|
42.5
|
41.0
|
32.7
|
59.3
|
|
GB
|
47.8
|
46.6
|
44.0
|
41.7
|
38.9
|
36.0
|
51.7
|
88.2
|
|
PL
|
42.4
|
42.3
|
38.4
|
39.0
|
36.5
|
37.3
|
46.6
|
50.4
|
|
SI
|
21.6
|
22.1
|
22.8
|
23.7
|
25.9
|
26.1
|
21.6
|
80.8
|
|
LT
|
13.9
|
15.4
|
16.5
|
22.7
|
23.5
|
22.9
|
14.6
|
40.7
|
|
RO
|
10.6
|
14.9
|
16.7
|
21.6
|
22.4
|
25.7
|
13.2
|
39.8
|
|
CZ
|
11.6
|
12.1
|
13.9
|
15.2
|
17.0
|
22.8
|
28.7
|
42.7
|
|
LV
|
13.3
|
10.7
|
9.0
|
12.1
|
12.1
|
13.9
|
18.7
|
40.8
|
|
EE
|
7.5
|
7.0
|
6.0
|
6.5
|
5.1
|
4.8
|
4.5
|
10.4
|
|
LU
|
7.6
|
7.5
|
7.2
|
6.4
|
7.6
|
6.6
|
14.4
|
23.0
|
|
HR
|
|
|
|
|
|
36.1
|
38.9
|
85.1
|
|
EA19
|
72.7
|
72.2
|
71.7
|
70.6
|
68.0
|
67.0
|
68.5
|
94.5
|
|
EU28
|
|
|
|
|
|
59.8
|
61.0
|
88.6
|
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|
|
June, 2017
II/2017
|
