Is external debt an impediment to the South African economy?
https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.48.1.5 | Published online: March 1, 2024 Figure 1
Gross domestic product at market price and external debt as % of GDP trends in SA Table 1
Description of the variables
Source: South African Reserve Bank; World Bank. Table 2
Descriptive statistics
Note: Statistically significant at *10%, **5%, ***1%. Source: Author’s own computation. Table 3
BDS test for nonlinearity
Note: Statistically significant at *10%, **5%, ***1%. Source: Author’s own computation. Table 4
Bierens and Breitung nonparametric unit root test
Note: Statistically significant at *10%, **5%, ***1%. The probability values are in brackets. Source: Author’s own computation. Table 5
Zivot-Andrews unit root test
Note: Statistically significant at *10%, **5%, ***1%. The break years are in brackets. Source: Author’s own computation. Table 6
NARDL bounds cointegration test
Note: Statistically significant at *10%, **5%, ***1%. Source: Author’s own computation. Table 7
Breitung’s nonparametric cointegration test
Note: Statistically significant at *10%, **5%, ***1%. Source: Author’s own computation. Table 8
Long-run NARDL results Dependent variable: GDP
Note: Statistically significant at *10%, **5%, ***1%. Source: Author’s own computation. Table 9
Short-run NARDL results Dependent variable: ΔGDP
Note: Statistically significant at *10%, **5%, ***1%. Source: Author’s own computation. Table 10
Long run and short run asymmetry
Note: Statistically significant at *10%, **5%, ***1%. Source: Author’s own computation. Table 11
Diagnostic tests
Note: Statistically significant at *10%, **5%, ***1%. Source: Author’s own computation. Figure 2
CUSUM graph Figure 3
Dynamic multiplier graph EXTERNAL_DEBT on GDP shock evolution Figure 1 Gross domestic product at market price and external debt as % of GDP trends in SA DISPLAY Figure Table 1 Description of the variables DISPLAY Table Table 2 Descriptive statistics DISPLAY Table Table 3 BDS test for nonlinearity DISPLAY Table Table 4 Bierens and Breitung nonparametric unit root test DISPLAY Table Table 5 Zivot-Andrews unit root test DISPLAY Table Table 6 NARDL bounds cointegration test DISPLAY Table Table 7 Breitung’s nonparametric cointegration test DISPLAY Table Table 8 Long-run NARDL results Dependent variable: GDP DISPLAY Table Table 9 Short-run NARDL results Dependent variable: ΔGDP DISPLAY Table Table 10 Long run and short run asymmetry DISPLAY Table Table 11 Diagnostic tests DISPLAY Table Figure 2 CUSUM graph DISPLAY Figure Figure 3 Dynamic multiplier graph EXTERNAL_DEBT on GDP shock evolution DISPLAY Figure |
March, 2024 I/2024 |
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