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Patterns of welfare-to-employment transitions of Croatian Guaranteed Minimum Benefit recipients: a preliminary study
Teo Matković* 
Preliminary communication | Year: 2017 | Pages: 335 - 358 | Volume: 41 | Issue: 3 Received: July 31, 2017 | Accepted: August 11, 2017 | Published online: September 15, 2017
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FULL ARTICLE
FIGURES & DATA
REFERENCES
CROSSMARK POLICY
METRICS
LICENCING
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Source: Croatian Employment Service and Ministry of Social Welfare.
 Source: Authors, adapted from Fernandez et al. (2016).
Source: SocSkrb, calculation of the authors.
Outcome | % | GMB ceased - in employment | 22.3 | GMB ceased - household income other than employment | 4.3 | GMB ceased - employment of another household member | 13.5 | GMB ceased - not seeking job | 4.7 | GMB ceased - other (e.g. death, migration, prison…) | 8.6 | GMB recipient - disability | 0.4 | GMB recipient - in employment | 2.6 | Status unchanged as of May-2017 | 42.9 |
Source: SocSkrb, calculation of the authors.
Log-rank tests: (1) chi2(3)=3.67; (2) chi2(3)=8.38*; (3) chi2(3)=0.98; (4) chi2(3)=2.10. Source: SocSkrb, calculation of the authors.
Log-rank tests: (1) chi2(4)=17.46**; (2) chi2(4)=12.12*; (3) chi2(2)=5.37+; (4) chi2(1)=4.24*. Source: SocSkrb, calculation of the authors.
Log-rank tests: (Men): chi2(3)=12.09**; (Women): LR test chi2(3)=3.67. Source: SocSkrb, calculation of the authors.
Source: SocSkrb, calculation of the authors.
| Hypothetical PTR for all recipients, % (at 35% avg. wage) | Actual PTR, %
(for those who got employed) | Average wage, HRK
(for those who got employed | Single person household | 52 | 50 | 2.831 | Single parent household | 56 | 54 | 3.577 | Household with dependents | 61 | 58 | 3.029 | Household without dependants | 58 | 55 | 2.915 | Total | | 53 | 2.998 |
Source: SocSkrb, calculation of the authors.
Log-rank tests: (METR) chi2(1)=3.86*; Gender LR test chi2(1)=4.08*. Source: SocSkrb, Tax Administration, calculation of the authors.
Attribute | Individuals % (first episode) | Average PTR for min. wage | % Employed by Jun 2017 | Education | | | | No formal education | 19 | 55 | 12 | Compulsory education (ISCED 2) | 37 | 54 | 15 | Vocational education - 3yr (ISCED 3C) | 32 | 60 | 36 | Upper secondary education - 4yr (ISCED 3AB) | 11 | 62 | 9 | Professional tertiary education (ISCED5) | 1 | 71 | 34 | University education (ISCED 6) | 0 | | | Prior employment history | | | | No | 22 | 57 | 11 | Up to 1 year | 14 | 56 | 29 | 1-5 years | 29 | 58 | 18 | 5-10 years | 15 | 55 | 34 | More than 10 years | 20 | 58 | 17 | Unemployment duration (when starting GMB episode) | | | | Less than 6 months | 68 | 56 | 23 | 6-12 months | 6 | 64 | 8 | 1-3 years | 12 | 58 | 28 | 3 or more years | 7 | 57 | 13 | Not required or unknown | 7 | 57 | 0 | Age (as of 2016) | | | | 0-17 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 18-29 | 22 | 60 | 26 | 30-50 | 47 | 57 | 26 | 51-64 | 28 | 55 | 9 | Gender | | | | Male | 57 | 57 | 26 | Female | 43 | 57 | 14 | Received GMB prior to 2015 | 53 | 56 | 22 | Household type | | | | Single household | 34 | 52 | 18 | Single parent | 6 | 56 | 7 | Household with dependents | 42 | 61 | 24 | Household without dependants | 18 | 58 | 21 | Number of dependent children | | | | No | 52 | 54 | 19 | 1 | 19 | 60 | 21 | 2 | 16 | 65 | 21 | 3 or more | 13 | 55 | 24 | Child - nursery age (0-3) | 15 | 57 | 19 | Debt - account due to debt execution process | | | | Account not blocked | 43 | 57 | 23 | Account blocked - up to 2 min. wages | 15 | 58 | 23 | Account blocked - 2 to up to 12 min. wages | 28 | 58 | 15 | Account blocked - more than 12 min. wages | 14 | 55 | 20 | Estimated participation tax rate for taking up a minimum-wage job | | | | Less than 50% | 13 | 40 | 15 | 50-60% | 47 | 53 | 19 | 60-70% | 29 | 66 | 24 | More than 70% | 11 | 77 | 22 | Total household benefit level (including child benefit) | | | | Up to HRK 1.000 | 28 | 48 | 21 | HRK 1,160 to HRK 1,400 | 25 | 55 | 12 | HRK 1,560 to HRK 2,350 | 23 | 65 | 28 | HRK 2,390 to HRK 5,037 | 24 | 62 | 22 | Total | | 57 | 20 |
| Coeff | Std. Err | Barrier: lack of work-based capacities | | | Education (ref: No formal education) | | | Compulsory education (ISCED 2) | 0.046 | (0.525) | Vocational education - 3yr (ISCED 3C) | 1.053* | (0.497) | Upper secondary education - 4yr (ISCED 3AB) | 0.354 | (0.707) | Professional tertiary education (ISCED5) | 1.046 | (1.289) | Age (ref: 18-29) | | | 30-50 | -0.173 | (0.415) | 51-64 | -1.352 | (0.524) | Employment history (at least some tenure) | 1.097+ | (0.562) | Unemployed <12 months when started receiving GMB | 0.344 | (0.371) | Prior GMB recipient (received GMB prior to 2015 | 0.276 | (0.310) | Barrier: lack of incentives to work | | | Bank account blocked (debt greater than 2 minimum wages) | -0.419 | (0.305) | Total household benefit level (including child benefit) (per HRK 1,000) | -0.061 | (0.209) | Estimated PTR for taking up a minimum--wage job min (per %) | 0.007 | (0.014) | Barrier: in-household work and care | | | Gender: Female | -1.791** | (0.576) | Household configuration (ref: 2+ adults, with dependent members) | | | Single person household | -0.752 | (0.506) | Single parent household | 0.087 | (1.180) | Household without dependants | -0.612 | (0.731) | Interaction: gender and household configuration | | | Female*Single person household | 2.419** | (0.794) | Female*Single parent household | 0.627 | (1.404) | Female*Household without dependants | 2.235* | (0.999) | Female*Nursery-age child in household | -0.326 | (0.891) | Observations | 233 | | Individuals | 202 | | Events (employment) | 58 | | Log likelihood | -265.4 | |
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September, 2017
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