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Public debt and GDP growth in BRICS: unravelling time-scale complexities through wavelet analysis
Ajaz Ayoub* 
Ajaz Ayoub
Affiliation: Research Scholar, Department of Humanities, Social Sciences & Management, National Institute of Technology, Srinagar, J&K, India
 0000-0003-3425-5944
Correspondence
ajaz.ayoub@nitsri.ac.in
Tahir Ahmad Wani*
Tahir Ahmad Wani
Affiliation: Assistant Professor, Department of Humanities, Social Sciences & Management, National Institute of Technology, Srinagar, J&K, India
0000-0003-0885-3692
Abid Sultan*
Abid Sultan
Affiliation: Assistant Professor, Department of Agriculture, Statistics & Economics, Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, Shalimar, Srinagar, J&K, India
0000-0003-3412-0054
Article | Year: 2025 | Pages: 369 - 393 | Volume: 49 | Issue: 3 Received: February 11, 2025 | Accepted: May 13, 2025 | Published online: September 3, 2025
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FULL ARTICLE
FIGURES & DATA
REFERENCES
CROSSMARK POLICY
METRICS
LICENCING
PDF
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Variables
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Measurement
|
Source
|
Type
|
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Gross
domestic product
|
Annual
percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local
currency
|
World
Development Indicators – World Bank
|
Dependent
|
|
Gross
government debt
|
General
government debt, total (% of GDP)
|
International
Monetary Fund
|
Independent
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Source: Authors’ compilation.
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Time scale
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Horizontal axis (in years)
|
|
1-5
|
1996-2000
|
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6-10
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2001-2004
|
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11-15
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2005-2008
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16-20
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2009-2012
|
|
20-25
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2013-2016
|
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26-30
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2017-2022
|
|
|
Brazil
|
Russia
|
India
|
China
|
|
|
GGD
|
GDP
|
GGD
|
GDP
|
GGD
|
GDP
|
GGD
|
GDP
|
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Minimum
|
40.23
|
-3.60
|
07.45
|
-7.80
|
20.60
|
02.24
|
66.00
|
-5.80
|
|
Maximum
|
96.01
|
07.53
|
135.20
|
10.00
|
77.10
|
14.20
|
88.50
|
09.05
|
|
Mean
|
68.49
|
02.20
|
26.03
|
02.77
|
37.64
|
08.47
|
74.00
|
06.16
|
|
Median
|
64.70
|
02.21
|
15.14
|
04.02
|
33.77
|
08.45
|
71.50
|
07.24
|
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LCL mean
|
63.23
|
01.10
|
14.81
|
01.00
|
30.92
|
07.47
|
71.30
|
04.99
|
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UCL mean
|
73.74
|
03.29
|
37.25
|
04.54
|
44.37
|
09.46
|
76.70
|
07.33
|
|
Variance
|
176.40
|
07.66
|
804.60
|
20.00
|
289.10
|
06.32
|
46.90
|
08.80
|
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St. dev.
|
13.28
|
02.77
|
28.37
|
04.48
|
17.00
|
02.51
|
06.85
|
02.97
|
|
Skewness
|
00.07
|
-0.40
|
02.56
|
-0.55
|
00.97
|
-0.28
|
00.61
|
-2.40
|
|
Kurtosis
|
-0.30
|
-0.30
|
06.33
|
-0.55
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-0.38
|
00.73
|
-1.13
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07.09
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Note: Number of observations = 27. Source: Authors’ computer estimation.
|
Country
|
Key periods
of strong coherence
|
Dominant
time scale
|
Underlying
economic drivers
|
|
Brazil
|
2009-2012,
2013-2016,
2019-2022
|
Medium-to-long-term
(>10 years)
|
Global financial crisis, economic
recession, COVID-19 debt policies
|
|
Russia
|
1996-2000,
2017-2022
|
Short-to-medium-term
|
Post-USSR restructuring,
financial crisis (1998), fiscal policies, economic sanctions, COVID-19 impact
|
|
India
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2003-2008,
2010-2016,
2018-2022
|
Medium-to-long-term
|
Economic liberalization,
fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, COVID-19 economic impact
|
|
China
|
2003-2007,
2019-2022
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Mid-term dominance
(10-15 years)
|
Industrial
expansion, WTO accession, financial tightening, fiscal stimulus in response
to COVID-19
|
|
Country
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Periods of strong
coherence
|
Leading variable
|
Economic context
|
|
Brazil
|
2009-2013,
2017-2022
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Public debt
|
Economic crises, fiscal
stimulus, post-2008 recovery
|
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Russia
|
1996-2005
|
Public debt
|
Post-Soviet transition,
financial crisis, fiscal interventions
|
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India
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2015-2022
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Economic growth
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Economic reforms (GST,
demonetization), COVID-19 fiscal response
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China
|
2017-2022
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Economic growth
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COVID-19
stimulus, rising local government debt
|
|
Country
|
F-Statistic
|
P-Value
|
Direction
|
|
Brazil
|
0.8332
|
0.4485
|
GDP → GGD
|
|
Brazil
|
0.8364
|
0.4472
|
GGD → GDP
|
|
Russia
|
1.7530
|
0.1977
|
GDP → GGD
|
|
Russia
|
4.7221
|
0.0203**
|
GGD → GDP
|
|
India
|
0.0243
|
0.0457**
|
GDP → GGD
|
|
India
|
3.5863
|
0.9760
|
GGD → GDP
|
|
China
|
3.4764
|
0.0051***
|
GDP → GGD
|
|
China
|
6.8495
|
0.0496**
|
GGD → GDP
|
Source: Authors’ computer estimation.
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September, 2025
III/2025
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