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Public debt and GDP growth in BRICS: unravelling time-scale complexities through wavelet analysis
Ajaz Ayoub* 
Ajaz Ayoub
Affiliation: Research Scholar, Department of Humanities, Social Sciences & Management, National Institute of Technology, Srinagar, J&K, India
 0000-0003-3425-5944
Correspondence
ajaz.ayoub@nitsri.ac.in
Tahir Ahmad Wani*
Tahir Ahmad Wani
Affiliation: Assistant Professor, Department of Humanities, Social Sciences & Management, National Institute of Technology, Srinagar, J&K, India
0000-0003-0885-3692
Abid Sultan*
Abid Sultan
Affiliation: Assistant Professor, Department of Agriculture, Statistics & Economics, Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, Shalimar, Srinagar, J&K, India
0000-0003-3412-0054
Article | Year: 2025 | Pages: 369 - 393 | Volume: 49 | Issue: 3 Received: February 11, 2025 | Accepted: May 13, 2025 | Published online: September 3, 2025
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FULL ARTICLE
FIGURES & DATA
REFERENCES
CROSSMARK POLICY
METRICS
LICENCING
PDF
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Variables
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Measurement
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Source
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Type
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Gross
domestic product
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Annual
percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local
currency
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World
Development Indicators – World Bank
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Dependent
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Gross
government debt
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General
government debt, total (% of GDP)
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International
Monetary Fund
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Independent
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Source: Authors’ compilation.
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Time scale
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Horizontal axis (in years)
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1-5
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1996-2000
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6-10
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2001-2004
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11-15
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2005-2008
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16-20
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2009-2012
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20-25
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2013-2016
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26-30
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2017-2022
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Brazil
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Russia
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India
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China
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GGD
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GDP
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GGD
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GDP
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GGD
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GDP
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GGD
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GDP
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Minimum
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40.23
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-3.60
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07.45
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-7.80
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20.60
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02.24
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66.00
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-5.80
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Maximum
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96.01
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07.53
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135.20
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10.00
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77.10
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14.20
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88.50
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09.05
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Mean
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68.49
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02.20
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26.03
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02.77
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37.64
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08.47
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74.00
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06.16
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Median
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64.70
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02.21
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15.14
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04.02
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33.77
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08.45
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71.50
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07.24
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LCL mean
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63.23
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01.10
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14.81
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01.00
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30.92
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07.47
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71.30
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04.99
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UCL mean
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73.74
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03.29
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37.25
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04.54
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44.37
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09.46
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76.70
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07.33
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Variance
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176.40
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07.66
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804.60
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20.00
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289.10
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06.32
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46.90
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08.80
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St. dev.
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13.28
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02.77
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28.37
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04.48
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17.00
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02.51
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06.85
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02.97
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Skewness
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00.07
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-0.40
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02.56
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-0.55
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00.97
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-0.28
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00.61
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-2.40
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Kurtosis
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-0.30
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-0.30
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06.33
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-0.55
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-0.38
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00.73
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-1.13
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07.09
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Note: Number of observations = 27. Source: Authors’ computer estimation.
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Country
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Key periods
of strong coherence
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Dominant
time scale
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Underlying
economic drivers
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Brazil
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2009-2012,
2013-2016,
2019-2022
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Medium-to-long-term
(>10 years)
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Global financial crisis, economic
recession, COVID-19 debt policies
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Russia
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1996-2000,
2017-2022
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Short-to-medium-term
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Post-USSR restructuring,
financial crisis (1998), fiscal policies, economic sanctions, COVID-19 impact
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India
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2003-2008,
2010-2016,
2018-2022
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Medium-to-long-term
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Economic liberalization,
fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, COVID-19 economic impact
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China
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2003-2007,
2019-2022
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Mid-term dominance
(10-15 years)
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Industrial
expansion, WTO accession, financial tightening, fiscal stimulus in response
to COVID-19
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Country
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Periods of strong
coherence
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Leading variable
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Economic context
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Brazil
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2009-2013,
2017-2022
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Public debt
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Economic crises, fiscal
stimulus, post-2008 recovery
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Russia
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1996-2005
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Public debt
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Post-Soviet transition,
financial crisis, fiscal interventions
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India
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2015-2022
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Economic growth
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Economic reforms (GST,
demonetization), COVID-19 fiscal response
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China
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2017-2022
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Economic growth
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COVID-19
stimulus, rising local government debt
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Country
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F-Statistic
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P-Value
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Direction
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Brazil
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0.8332
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0.4485
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GDP → GGD
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Brazil
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0.8364
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0.4472
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GGD → GDP
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Russia
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1.7530
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0.1977
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GDP → GGD
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Russia
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4.7221
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0.0203**
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GGD → GDP
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India
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0.0243
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0.0457**
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GDP → GGD
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India
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3.5863
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0.9760
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GGD → GDP
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China
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3.4764
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0.0051***
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GDP → GGD
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China
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6.8495
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0.0496**
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GGD → GDP
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Source: Authors’ computer estimation.
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September, 2025
III/2025
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