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The behavior of U.S. States’ debts and deficits
Maria Cornachione Kula* 
Preliminary communication | Year: 2019 | Pages: 267 - 289 | Volume: 43 | Issue: 3 Received: February 21, 2019 | Accepted: May 17, 2019 | Published online: September 14, 2019
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FULL ARTICLE
FIGURES & DATA
REFERENCES
CROSSMARK POLICY
METRICS
LICENCING
PDF
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Chubb
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yld
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surp
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lus
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de
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bt
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GV
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AR
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YV
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AR
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State
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mean
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stdev
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mean
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stdev
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mean
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stdev
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mean
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stdev
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mean
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stdev
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Alabama
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11.270
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6.147
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-0.009
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0.006
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0.133
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0.015
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0.016
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0.041
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0.007
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0.251
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California
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9.266
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12.167
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-0.011
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0.003
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0.112
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0.028
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0.000
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0.002
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0.064
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0.193
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Connecticut
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9.087
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14.542
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-0.015
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0.008
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0.144
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0.019
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0.012
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0.016
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0.083
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0.145
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Delaware
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20.241
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19.968
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-0.022
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0.006
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0.202
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0.031
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0.089
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0.125
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0.045
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0.307
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Florida
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15.537
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10.295
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-0.011
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0.004
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0.164
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0.041
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0.003
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0.008
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0.085
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0.159
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Georgia
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-6.963
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3.761
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-0.011
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0.004
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0.114
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0.009
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0.004
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0.021
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0.060
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0.124
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Illinois
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17.118
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6.785
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-0.013
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0.002
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0.116
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0.018
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0.001
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0.009
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0.043
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0.221
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Kentucky
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4.005
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6.457
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-0.016
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0.007
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0.204
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0.013
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0.004
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0.033
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0.028
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0.221
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Louisiana
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33.487
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31.183
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-0.015
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0.006
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0.173
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0.051
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-0.002
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0.035
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0.045
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0.294
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Maine
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11.926
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5.288
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-0.017
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0.006
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0.146
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0.018
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0.049
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0.093
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0.092
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0.203
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Maryland
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-3.440
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3.336
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-0.017
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0.005
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0.160
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0.012
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0.007
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0.02
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0.099
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0.17
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Massachusetts
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43.978
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32.523
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-0.016
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0.005
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0.156
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0.024
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0.006
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0.012
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0.090
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0.207
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Michigan
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35.550
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39.887
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-0.011
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0.004
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0.111
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0.011
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0.009
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0.018
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0.141
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0.449
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Minnesota
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5.480
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10.195
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-0.015
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0.006
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0.171
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0.021
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0.003
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0.018
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0.068
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0.206
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Mississippi
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10.663
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5.793
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-0.011
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0.005
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0.112
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0.016
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-0.002
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0.066
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-0.032
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0.312
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Missouri
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-10.334
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5.634
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-0.011
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0.003
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0.090
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0.011
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0.005
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0.023
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0.040
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0.17
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Montana
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3.685
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8.986
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-0.020
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0.007
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0.155
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0.037
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-0.057
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0.145
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0.058
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0.27
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Nevada
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19.581
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7.953
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-0.005
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0.006
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0.145
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0.026
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0.017
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0.051
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0.031
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0.21
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New Hampshire
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12.881
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13.337
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-0.011
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0.005
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0.169
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0.035
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0.023
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0.093
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0.057
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0.201
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New jersey
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0.000
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0.000
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-0.015
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0.005
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0.142
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0.01
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0.006
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0.009
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0.096
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0.172
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New Mexico
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10.232
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6.620
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-0.024
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0.012
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0.157
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0.039
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0.011
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0.095
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0.063
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0.186
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New York
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30.336
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21.598
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-0.019
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0.006
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0.198
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0.022
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0.002
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0.004
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0.113
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0.192
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North Carolina
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-12.746
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5.031
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-0.008
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0.004
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0.097
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0.019
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0.004
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0.022
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0.045
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0.18
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North Dakota
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7.635
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13.844
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-0.016
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0.006
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0.137
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0.061
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-0.080
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0.385
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0.076
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0.389
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Ohio
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9.900
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16.103
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-0.009
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0.004
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0.090
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0.01
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0.003
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0.01
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0.050
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0.27
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Oklahoma
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-1.630
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16.920
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-0.014
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0.004
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0.126
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0.029
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-0.015
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0.037
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0.028
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0.219
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Oregon
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23.775
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25.132
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-0.018
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0.005
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0.198
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0.05
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0.001
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0.033
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0.093
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0.342
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Pennsylvania
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34.453
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31.244
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-0.017
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0.005
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0.161
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0.018
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0.004
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0.008
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0.082
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0.225
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Rhode Island
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20.035
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6.831
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-0.015
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0.008
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0.212
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0.027
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0.050
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0.073
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0.057
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0.203
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South Carolina
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-9.187
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4.414
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-0.009
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0.006
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0.146
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0.016
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0.007
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0.039
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0.021
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0.211
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Tennessee
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-6.952
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4.595
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-0.008
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0.004
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0.120
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0.015
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0.008
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0.029
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0.031
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0.196
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Texas
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4.441
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18.007
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-0.011
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0.002
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0.134
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0.029
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-0.002
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0.004
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0.020
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0.127
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Utah
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-6.147
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9.823
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-0.012
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0.007
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0.248
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0.091
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0.014
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0.062
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0.001
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0.157
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Vermont
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14.988
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8.250
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-0.017
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0.005
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0.154
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0.01
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0.082
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0.166
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0.036
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0.244
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Virginia
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-10.169
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9.393
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-0.008
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0.003
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0.105
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0.015
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0.003
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0.016
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0.066
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0.13
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Washington
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32.765
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29.820
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-0.007
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0.008
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0.224
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0.023
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0.008
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0.014
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0.068
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0.219
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West Virginia
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23.134
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8.691
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-0.016
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0.005
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0.188
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0.023
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-0.005
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0.09
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-0.143
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0.376
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Wisconsin
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10.883
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9.737
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-0.010
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0.004
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0.117
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0.015
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0.005
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0.016
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0.053
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0.286
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Notes. All data 1978-1998. Average Chubb yield in basis points. Surplus and debt are shares of gross state product; GVAR and YVAR defined in section 4.
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Year
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Average
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High-low spread
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1973
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3.759
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37.40
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1974
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2.384
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38.50
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1975
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5.338
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63.70
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1976
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-19.722
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189.00
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1977
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0.670
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108.90
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1978
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2.205
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95.30
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1979
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6.473
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93.50
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1980
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9.565
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101.70
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1981
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12.412
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116.67
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1982
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16.856
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146.42
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1983
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17.599
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136.47
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1984
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21.244
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117.7
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1985
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15.575
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77.35
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1986
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18.001
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72.00
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1987
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16.186
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103.83
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1988
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14.583
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120.16
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1989
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10.673
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88.50
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1990
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8.939
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73.08
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1991
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14.585
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84.10
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1992
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8.962
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44.10
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1993
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7.997
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44.70
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1994
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5.449
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31.90
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1995
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4.916
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37.60
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1996
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5.237
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35.90
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1997
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3.808
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27.50
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1998
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2.813
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21.40
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Notes: autocorrelation corrected maximum likelihood estimates. See table 1 for states; 1978-1998. *** statistically significant at the 1% level.
Notes: autocorrelation corrected maximum likelihood estimates. See table 1 for states; 1978-1998. *** statistically significant at the 1% level; * statistically significant at the 10% level.
Notes: autocorrelation corrected maximum likelihood estimates. See table 1 for states; 1978-1998. *** statistically significant at the 1% level.
Notes: autocorrelation corrected maximum likelihood estimates. See table 1 for states; 1978-1998. *** statistically significant at the 1% level.
Notes: autocorrelation corrected maximum likelihood estimates. See table 1 for states; 1978-1998. *** statistically significant at the 1% level.
Notes: autocorrelation corrected maximum likelihood estimates. See table 1 for states; 1978-1998. *** statistically significant at the 1% level.
Notes: autocorrelation corrected maximum likelihood estimates. See table 1 for states; 1978-1998. *** statistically significant at the 1% level.
Notes: autocorrelation corrected maximum likelihood estimates. See table 1 for states; 1978-1998. *** statistically significant at the 1% level.
Notes: autocorrelation corrected maximum likelihood estimates. See table 1 for states; 1978-1998. *** statistically significant at the 1% level.
Notes: autocorrelation corrected maximum likelihood estimates. See table 1 for states; 1978-1998. *** statistically significant at the 1% level.
Notes: autocorrelation corrected maximum likelihood estimates. See table 1 for states; 1978-1998. *** statistically significant at the 1% level.
Notes: autocorrelation corrected maximum likelihood estimates. See table 1 for states; 1978-1998. *** statistically significant at the 1% level.
Notes: autocorrelation corrected maximum likelihood estimates. See table 1 for states; 1978-1998. *** statistically significant at the 1% level.
Notes: autocorrelation corrected maximum likelihood estimates. See table 1 for states; 1978-1998. *** statistically significant at the 1% level.
Notes: autocorrelation corrected maximum likelihood estimates. See table 1 for states; 1978-1998. *** statistically significant at the 1% level.
Notes: autocorrelation corrected maximum likelihood estimates. See table 1 for states; 1978-1998. *** statistically significant at the 1% level.
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September, 2019
III/2019
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