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The effects of intercompany lending on the current account balances of selected economies in the Western Balkans
Ivana Đurović* 
Article | Year: 2017 | Pages: 421 - 441 | Volume: 41 | Issue: 4 Received: June 1, 2017 | Accepted: October 31, 2017 | Published online: December 11, 2017
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FULL ARTICLE
FIGURES & DATA
REFERENCES
CROSSMARK POLICY
METRICS
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Country | Year | Country | Year | Country | Year | Albaniaa | 2007 | Hungary | 2002 | Polanda | 2004 | Bosnia and Herzegovinaa | 2007 | Kosovoa | 2006 | Romania | 2002 | Bulgariaa | 2007 | Latvia | 2002 | Serbiaa | 2007 | Croatia | 2002 | Lithuaniaa | 2004 | Slovakiaa | 2004 | Czech Republic | 2002 | Macedonia | 2002 | Slovenia | 2002 | Estonia | 2002 | Montenegroa | 2010 | | |
Country | ICL | p-value | Bosnia and Herzegovina | -1.868 | 0.022** | Croatia | -0.802 | 0.002*** | Kosovo | 3.837 | 0.003*** | Macedonia | -2.818 | 0.000*** | Serbia | -3.488 | 0.008*** | Slovenia | -0.650 | 0.004*** |
** Significance at 5% level, *** significance at 1% level.
Variable | B&H | Croatia | Kosovo | Macedonia | Serbia | Slovenia | ICL | -0.482 | -0.270 | 1.236 | -0.890 | -0.688 | -0.154 | CAB_lag | 0.174 | 0.301 | -0.081 | 0.519 | | 0.367 | EI | -0.879 | -0.019 | -0.800 | -0.375 | 0.202 | -0.105 | Oil | 0.597 | 0.231 | -0.203 | -0.151 | 0.282 | 0.259 | Open | | 0.099 | -0.033 | 0.327 | | 0.257 | GDP_gr | 0.088 | -0.542 | -0.664 | 0.717 | -0.187 | -0.152 | Unem | 0.369 | 0.289 | -0.031 | -0.039 | 0.495 | 0.281 | F.bal | -0.151 | 0.119 | 0.331 | | 0.451 | 0.002 | Vix | -0.233 | 0.127 | -0.405 | -0.916 | -0.485 | |
Bolded figures indicate the strongest effect.
Coefficients | Without trend dummy | With trend dummy | Estimate | p-value | Estimate | p-value | ICL | -0.372 | 0.0291** | -0.368 | 0.0306** | EI | -0.012 | 0.8576 | -0.011 | 0.8787 | Oil | 0.665 | 0.0044*** | 0.634 | 0.0047*** | Open | 0.186 | 0.0000*** | 0.176 | 0.0000*** | GDP_gr | -0.487 | 0.0000*** | -0.469 | 0.0000*** | Unem | 0.249 | 0.0005*** | 0.253 | 0.0007*** | F.bal | 0.130 | 0.3883 | 0.132 | 0.3764 | VIX | -0.008 | 0.3651 | -0.008 | 0.3483 | Dummy trend | | | 0.0004 | 0.7613 |
** Significance at 5% level, *** significance at 1% level.
Variable | Expected sign | Source | Lagged values of the CAB to GDP ratio(CAB_lag) | + | Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW) | Oil balance to GDP ratio (Oil) | + | Eurostat, International Trade in Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC Rev. 4) served as a proxy. | Trade Openness (Open) | Ambiguous | World Bank | Macroeconomic uncertainty (Vix) | Ambiguous | Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, CBOE Volatility Index, % change from a year ago, annual, not seasonally adjusted. | General Government Budget to GDP ratio (F.bal) | + | WIIW | GDP growth (GDP_gr) | - | WIIW | Unemployment rate (Unem) | Ambiguous | WIIW | Foreign Direct Investments: Intercompany lending (ICL) Equity investment (EI) | Ambiguous | International Monetary Fund |
Variables | B&H | Croatia | Kosovo | Macedonia | Montenegro | Serbia | Slovenia | KPSS test results | CAB | 0.392* | 0.440* | 0.107 | 0.306 | 0.326 | 0.416 | 0.729** | | ICL | 0.390* | 0.230 | 0.302 | 0.185 | 0.144 | 0.347* | 0.131 | | EI | 0.251 | 0.282 | 0.332 | 0.223 | | 0.205 | 0.348* | | Oil | 0.211 | 0.137 | 0.314 | 0.175 | 0.287 | 0.407 | 0.148 | | Open | 0.314 | 0.363* | 0.231 | 0.389* | 0.089 | 0.698** | 0.391* | | GDP_gr | 0.153 | 0.260 | 0.306 | 0.144 | 1.235*** | 0.186 | 0.239 | | Unem | 0.135 | 0.292 | 0.261 | 0.560** | 0.514** | 0.196 | 0.382* | | F.bal | 0.144 | 0.124 | 0.349* | 0.226 | 0.253 | 0.165 | 0.267 | | Vix | 0.085 | 0.050 | 0.097 | 0.050 | | 0.085 | 0.050 | |
Variable | B&H | Croatia | Kosovo | Macedonia | Montenegro | Serbia | Slovenia | Model Averaging Coefficients | Coeff. | p-value | Coeff. | p-value | Coeff. | p-value | Coeff. | p-value | Coeff. | p-value | Coeff. | p-value | Coeff. | p-value | Intercept | -0.147 | 0.020 | -0.062 | 0.000 | -0.056 | 0.003 | -0.087 | 0.000 | | | -0.075 | 0.008 | -0.077 | 0.000 | ICL | -1.868 | 0.022 | -0.802 | 0.002 | 3.837 | 0.003 | -2.818 | 0.000 | 0.421 | 0.124* | -3.488 | 0.008 | -0.650 | 0.004 | CAB_lag | 0.134 | 0.011 | 0.322 | 0.000 | -0.082 | 0.013 | 0.517 | 0.000 | -0.394 | 0.016 | | | 0.412 | 0.000 | EI | -0.759 | 0.010 | -0.009 | 0.000 | -0.995 | 0.004 | -0.688 | 0.000 | | | 0.566 | 0.011 | -0.292 | 0.000 | Oil | 0.619 | 0.014 | 1.036 | 0.000 | -0.378 | 0.015 | -0.277 | 0.001 | 0.576 | 0.024 | 1.101 | 0.006 | 0.665 | 0.000 | Open | | | 0.067 | 0.000 | -0.021 | 0.003 | 0.075 | 0.000 | -0.179 | 0.024 | | | 0.060 | 0.000 | GDP_gr | 0.092 | 0.060 | -0.624 | 0.000 | -0.962 | 0.010 | 1.284 | 0.001 | -0.191 | 0.072 | -0.380 | 0.011 | -0.156 | 0.001 | Unem | 0.561 | 0.020 | 0.428 | 0.000 | -0.007 | 0.014 | -0.034 | 0.000 | -0.183 | 0.075 | 0.867 | 0.008 | 0.617 | 0.000 | F.bal | -0.266 | 0.011 | 0.284 | 0.025 | 0.351 | 0.003 | 0.000 | | -0.305 | 0.079 | 1.443 | 0.014 | 0.002 | 0.002 | Vix | -0.015 | 0.021 | 0.015 | 0.026 | -0.029 | 0.007 | -0.092 | 0.001 | | | -0.067 | 0.004 | | |
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December, 2017
IV/2017 |
