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The future of taxation in changing labour markets
Article | Year: 2023 | Pages: 521 - 554 | Volume: 47 | Issue: 4 Received: September 11, 2023 | Accepted: October 18, 2023 | Published online: December 11, 2023
|
FULL ARTICLE
FIGURES & DATA
REFERENCES
CROSSMARK POLICY
METRICS
LICENCING
PDF
Source: Authors’ calculation using EUROSTAT data.
Source: Authors’ calculation using Cedefop COVID-19 scenario data.
Source: Authors’ calculation using Cedefop COVID-19 scenario data.
Source: Authors’ calculation using Cedefop COVID-19 scenario data.
Source: Economic Policy Committee (2020).
Source: Authors’ calculation using EUROMOD (version I2.0+).
Source: Authors’ calculation using EUROMOD (version I2.0+).
* Net positions for all countries (% 2019 GDP). Source: Authors’ calculation using EUROMOD (version I2.0+).
Source: Authors’ calculation using EUROMOD (version I2.0+).
Source: Authors’ calculation using EUROMOD (version I2.0+).
Source: Authors’ calculation using EUROMOD (version I2.0+).
Source: Authors’ calculation using EUROMOD (version I2.0+).
Source: Authors’ calculation using EUROMOD (version I2.0+).
Source: Authors’ calculation using EUROMOD (version I2.0+).
Source: Authors’ calculation using ESTAT data.
Source: Authors’ calculation using Cedefop data.
|
|
Age group
|
Year
|
|
Age group
|
Year
|
|
2019
|
2025
|
2030
|
2019
|
2025
|
2030
|
|
AT
|
<16
|
15.4
|
15.4
|
15.3
|
IE
|
<16
|
21.9
|
20.0
|
18.4
|
|
16-65
|
66.8
|
65.3
|
63.2
|
16-65
|
65.0
|
65.1
|
65.0
|
|
66+
|
17.8
|
19.3
|
21.5
|
66+
|
13.2
|
14.9
|
16.5
|
|
Pop (mil)
|
8.86
|
9.03
|
9.15
|
Pop (mil)
|
4.90
|
5.27
|
5.50
|
|
BE
|
<16
|
18.0
|
17.3
|
16.4
|
IT
|
<16
|
14.1
|
13.0
|
12.2
|
|
16-65
|
64.2
|
63.3
|
62.3
|
16-65
|
64.2
|
63.7
|
62.4
|
|
66+
|
17.8
|
19.5
|
21.3
|
66+
|
21.7
|
23.4
|
25.4
|
|
Pop (mil)
|
11.46
|
11.66
|
11.76
|
Pop (mil)
|
60.36
|
60.09
|
59.94
|
|
BG
|
<16
|
15.2
|
15.3
|
14.6
|
LT
|
<16
|
16.0
|
16.2
|
15.5
|
|
16-65
|
64.8
|
63.0
|
62.4
|
16-65
|
65.3
|
63.4
|
61.0
|
|
66+
|
20.0
|
21.7
|
23.0
|
66+
|
18.7
|
20.4
|
23.4
|
|
Pop (mil)
|
7.00
|
6.69
|
6.45
|
Pop (mil)
|
2.79
|
2.71
|
2.58
|
|
CY
|
<16
|
17.2
|
16.9
|
16.7
|
LU
|
<16
|
17.1
|
16.3
|
15.7
|
|
16-65
|
67.8
|
66.2
|
64.9
|
16-65
|
69.5
|
68.7
|
67.4
|
|
66+
|
15.1
|
16.9
|
18.5
|
66+
|
13.4
|
14.9
|
16.8
|
|
Pop (mil)
|
0.88
|
0.93
|
0.96
|
Pop (mil)
|
0.61
|
0.66
|
0.69
|
|
CZ
|
<16
|
16.8
|
16.9
|
16.3
|
LV
|
<16
|
16.9
|
16.6
|
16.0
|
|
16-65
|
64.9
|
63.0
|
62.9
|
16-65
|
64.0
|
62.3
|
60.5
|
|
66+
|
18.3
|
20.1
|
20.8
|
66+
|
19.1
|
21.1
|
23.5
|
|
Pop (mil)
|
10.65
|
10.79
|
10.76
|
Pop (mil)
|
1.92
|
1.82
|
1.71
|
|
DE
|
<16
|
14.5
|
15.1
|
15.3
|
MT
|
<16
|
14.5
|
14.6
|
14.2
|
|
16-65
|
65.1
|
63.2
|
60.9
|
16-65
|
67.9
|
66.7
|
65.8
|
|
66+
|
20.3
|
21.7
|
23.8
|
66+
|
17.5
|
18.8
|
19.9
|
|
Pop (mil)
|
83.02
|
83.48
|
83.45
|
Pop (mil)
|
0.49
|
0.56
|
0.59
|
|
DK
|
<16
|
17.7
|
17.2
|
17.3
|
NL
|
<16
|
17.0
|
16.3
|
16.1
|
|
16-65
|
63.9
|
62.6
|
61.2
|
16-65
|
65.0
|
63.6
|
61.7
|
|
66+
|
18.4
|
20.1
|
21.5
|
66+
|
18.0
|
20.1
|
22.1
|
|
Pop (mil)
|
5.81
|
5.88
|
5.96
|
Pop (mil)
|
17.28
|
17.75
|
17.97
|
|
EE
|
<16
|
17.4
|
16.6
|
15.5
|
PL
|
<16
|
16.3
|
15.7
|
14.5
|
|
16-65
|
64.1
|
63.0
|
62.6
|
16-65
|
67.4
|
64.6
|
63.9
|
|
66+
|
18.6
|
20.4
|
22.0
|
66+
|
16.3
|
19.7
|
21.6
|
|
Pop (mil)
|
1.32
|
1.32
|
1.31
|
Pop (mil)
|
37.97
|
37.57
|
37.02
|
|
EL
|
<16
|
15.3
|
14.4
|
13.4
|
PT
|
<16
|
14.7
|
14.0
|
13.7
|
|
16-65
|
63.8
|
62.9
|
62.1
|
16-65
|
64.6
|
63.3
|
61.5
|
|
66+
|
20.9
|
22.7
|
24.5
|
66+
|
20.6
|
22.7
|
24.8
|
|
Pop (mil)
|
10.72
|
10.51
|
10.30
|
Pop (mil)
|
10.28
|
10.22
|
10.09
|
|
ES
|
<16
|
15.8
|
14.3
|
13.2
|
RO
|
<16
|
16.7
|
16.0
|
15.3
|
|
16-65
|
65.9
|
65.6
|
64.4
|
16-65
|
66.0
|
64.2
|
64.0
|
|
66+
|
18.3
|
20.1
|
22.4
|
66+
|
17.3
|
19.9
|
20.8
|
|
Pop (mil)
|
46.94
|
48.31
|
48.75
|
Pop (mil)
|
19.41
|
18.51
|
17.81
|
|
FI
|
<16
|
17.1
|
15.6
|
14.3
|
SE
|
<16
|
18.9
|
18.6
|
18.0
|
|
16-65
|
62.4
|
61.5
|
61.2
|
16-65
|
62.3
|
61.8
|
61.9
|
|
66+
|
20.5
|
22.9
|
24.5
|
66+
|
18.8
|
19.5
|
20.1
|
|
Pop (mil)
|
5.52
|
5.54
|
5.52
|
Pop (mil)
|
10.23
|
10.75
|
11.10
|
|
FR
|
<16
|
19.2
|
18.4
|
17.6
|
SI
|
<16
|
15.9
|
15.5
|
14.3
|
|
16-65
|
61.9
|
60.7
|
59.8
|
16-65
|
65.6
|
63.5
|
62.6
|
|
66+
|
18.9
|
20.9
|
22.6
|
66+
|
18.5
|
21.0
|
23.1
|
|
Pop (mil)
|
67.01
|
68.04
|
68.75
|
Pop (mil)
|
2.08
|
2.11
|
2.11
|
|
HR
|
<16
|
15.4
|
14.7
|
14.1
|
SK
|
<16
|
16.7
|
16.8
|
16.0
|
|
16-65
|
65.4
|
63.5
|
62.2
|
16-65
|
68.5
|
65.5
|
64.3
|
|
66+
|
19.2
|
21.8
|
23.7
|
66+
|
14.8
|
17.8
|
19.7
|
|
Pop (mil)
|
4.08
|
3.94
|
3.83
|
Pop (mil)
|
5.45
|
5.47
|
5.44
|
|
HU
|
<16
|
15.5
|
15.3
|
15.3
|
EU
|
<16
|
16.2
|
15.6
|
15.1
|
|
16-65
|
66.6
|
64.5
|
64.2
|
16-65
|
64.7
|
63.4
|
62.1
|
|
66+
|
17.9
|
20.1
|
20.5
|
66+
|
19.1
|
21.0
|
22.8
|
|
Pop (mil)
|
9.77
|
9.70
|
9.62
|
Pop (mil)
|
446.82
|
449.30
|
449.12
|
|
|
Skill group
|
Year
|
|
Skill group
|
Year
|
|
2019
|
2025
|
2030
|
2019
|
2025
|
2030
|
|
AT
|
High
|
41.2
|
42.2
|
43.4
|
IE
|
High
|
41.6
|
43.0
|
43.7
|
|
Medium
|
50.5
|
49.2
|
47.8
|
Medium
|
50.0
|
48.6
|
47.8
|
|
Low
|
8.3
|
8.5
|
8.8
|
Low
|
8.4
|
8.4
|
8.5
|
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
4.45
|
4.61
|
4.81
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
2.21
|
2.32
|
2.56
|
|
BE
|
High
|
47.3
|
48.7
|
49.7
|
IT
|
High
|
36.6
|
39.0
|
41.0
|
|
Medium
|
42.1
|
40.7
|
39.8
|
Medium
|
51.9
|
50.2
|
48.7
|
|
Low
|
10.6
|
10.6
|
10.5
|
Low
|
11.5
|
10.8
|
10.2
|
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
4.83
|
4.97
|
5.15
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
25.32
|
25.17
|
25.66
|
|
BG
|
High
|
28.9
|
31.4
|
32.8
|
LT
|
High
|
41.8
|
44.3
|
45.6
|
|
Medium
|
58.7
|
56.0
|
54.4
|
Medium
|
49.0
|
47.1
|
46.1
|
|
Low
|
12.4
|
12.6
|
12.8
|
Low
|
9.1
|
8.6
|
8.3
|
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
3.54
|
3.17
|
3.02
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
1.35
|
1.29
|
1.25
|
|
CY
|
High
|
35.0
|
37.2
|
38.7
|
LU
|
High
|
54.6
|
58.0
|
59.9
|
|
Medium
|
49.1
|
47.1
|
46.0
|
Medium
|
35.5
|
33.3
|
32.0
|
|
Low
|
15.8
|
15.7
|
15.3
|
Low
|
9.9
|
8.7
|
8.1
|
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
0.42
|
0.46
|
0.51
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
0.44
|
0.47
|
0.52
|
|
CZ
|
High
|
38.2
|
40.3
|
42.0
|
LV
|
High
|
42.2
|
44.9
|
46.4
|
|
Medium
|
56.6
|
54.9
|
53.5
|
Medium
|
44.8
|
42.9
|
41.8
|
|
Low
|
5.1
|
4.8
|
4.5
|
Low
|
13.0
|
12.1
|
11.8
|
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
5.37
|
5.26
|
5.26
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
0.89
|
0.86
|
0.87
|
|
DE
|
High
|
44.7
|
45.5
|
45.9
|
MT
|
High
|
44.2
|
45.6
|
46.3
|
|
Medium
|
47.2
|
46.5
|
46.0
|
Medium
|
46.7
|
45.6
|
45.2
|
|
Low
|
8.1
|
8.1
|
8.1
|
Low
|
9.2
|
8.7
|
8.5
|
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
44.07
|
44.25
|
45.41
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
0.23
|
0.23
|
0.24
|
|
DK
|
High
|
47.7
|
50.2
|
52.4
|
NL
|
High
|
47.9
|
49.0
|
49.8
|
|
Medium
|
41.7
|
39.7
|
37.9
|
Medium
|
43.0
|
42.1
|
41.4
|
|
Low
|
10.6
|
10.1
|
9.7
|
Low
|
9.0
|
8.9
|
8.8
|
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
2.95
|
3.03
|
3.14
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
9.18
|
9.22
|
9.37
|
|
EE
|
High
|
46.3
|
48.3
|
49.9
|
PL
|
High
|
39.4
|
42.5
|
44.6
|
|
Medium
|
44.6
|
42.6
|
41.1
|
Medium
|
52.8
|
49.6
|
47.4
|
|
Low
|
9.0
|
9.1
|
9.0
|
Low
|
7.7
|
7.9
|
8.0
|
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
0.64
|
0.62
|
0.62
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
16.37
|
15.61
|
15.51
|
|
EL
|
High
|
29.5
|
31.6
|
32.6
|
PT
|
High
|
34.8
|
36.0
|
37.1
|
|
Medium
|
62.6
|
60.6
|
59.8
|
Medium
|
54.2
|
52.6
|
51.4
|
|
Low
|
7.9
|
7.8
|
7.6
|
Low
|
11.1
|
11.4
|
11.5
|
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
4.22
|
4.27
|
4.47
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
4.88
|
5.03
|
5.27
|
|
ES
|
High
|
34.3
|
36.0
|
37.1
|
RO
|
High
|
23.9
|
26.7
|
28.4
|
|
Medium
|
52.1
|
51.1
|
50.4
|
Medium
|
66.6
|
64.0
|
62.3
|
|
Low
|
13.6
|
12.9
|
12.5
|
Low
|
9.4
|
9.3
|
9.3
|
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
19.87
|
19.65
|
20.20
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
8.72
|
8.52
|
9.22
|
|
FI
|
High
|
46.0
|
46.6
|
47.1
|
SE
|
High
|
51.5
|
53.7
|
55.0
|
|
Medium
|
47.4
|
46.5
|
45.6
|
Medium
|
43.6
|
41.7
|
40.5
|
|
Low
|
6.5
|
6.9
|
7.4
|
Low
|
4.9
|
4.6
|
4.5
|
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
2.59
|
2.61
|
2.70
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
4.97
|
5.06
|
5.30
|
|
FR
|
High
|
45.8
|
47.2
|
48.3
|
SI
|
High
|
46.5
|
49.4
|
51.3
|
|
Medium
|
43.5
|
41.4
|
39.8
|
Medium
|
43.6
|
39.9
|
37.2
|
|
Low
|
10.8
|
11.4
|
11.8
|
Low
|
9.9
|
10.7
|
11.4
|
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
28.21
|
27.65
|
28.72
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
1.00
|
1.00
|
1.05
|
|
HR
|
High
|
38.0
|
40.4
|
41.6
|
SK
|
High
|
33.2
|
34.4
|
34.9
|
|
Medium
|
54.5
|
52.2
|
50.9
|
Medium
|
58.1
|
56.8
|
56.1
|
|
Low
|
7.5
|
7.4
|
7.5
|
Low
|
8.8
|
8.8
|
9.0
|
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
1.64
|
1.58
|
1.64
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
2.40
|
2.44
|
2.56
|
|
HU
|
High
|
36.1
|
38.5
|
40.2
|
EU
|
High
|
40.5
|
42.2
|
43.4
|
|
Medium
|
53.2
|
50.4
|
48.3
|
Medium
|
49.9
|
48.2
|
47.0
|
|
Low
|
10.7
|
11.1
|
11.5
|
Low
|
9.7
|
9.6
|
9.6
|
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
4.58
|
4.57
|
4.68
|
Total jobs
(mil)
|
205.31
|
203.92
|
209.73
|
Acemoglu, D. and Restrepo, P., 2017. Secular stagnation? The effect of aging on economic growth in the age of automation. American Economic Review, 107, pp. 174-179 [ CrossRef]
Autor, D., Katz, L. and Kearney, M., 2006. The Polarization of the US Labor Market. The American Economic Review, 96(2), pp. 189-194 [ CrossRef]
Autor, D., Levy, F. and Murnane, R., 2003. The skill content of recent technological change: An empirical exploration. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), pp. 1279-1333 [ CrossRef]
Aziz, O. A., Ball, C. and Creedy, J., 2015. The distributional impact of population ageing in New Zealand. New Zealand Economic Papers, 49(3), pp. 207-226 [ CrossRef]
David, H. and Dorn, D., 2013. The growth of low-skill service jobs and the polarization of the us labor market. American Economic Review, 103(5), pp. 1553-1597 [ CrossRef]
Dolls, M. [et al.], 2017. Fiscal sustainability and the demographic transition: a micro approach for 27 EU countries. International Tax and Public Finance, 24(4), pp. 575-615 [ CrossRef]
Dolls, M. [et al.], 2019. Demographic change and the European income distribution. The Journal of Economic Inequality, 17, pp. 337-357 [ CrossRef]
Economic Policy Committee, 2020. The 2021 Ageing Report - Underlying Assumptions and Projection Methodologies. European Economy Institutional Paper, No. 142.
Frey, C. and Osborne, M., 2017. The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, pp. 254-280 [ CrossRef]
Goos, M and Manning, A., 2007. Lousy and lovely jobs: The rising polarization of work in Britain. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(1), pp. 118-133 [ CrossRef]
Goos, M, Manning, A. and Salomons, A., 2009. Explaining Job Polarization in Europe: The Roles of Technology, Globalization and Institutions. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 99(2), pp. 58-63 [ CrossRef]
Goos, M., Manning, A. and Salomons, A., 2014. Explaining job polarization: Routine-biased technological change and offshoring. The American Economic Review, 104, pp. 2509-2526 [ CrossRef]
Michaels, G., Natraj, A. and Van Reenen, J., 2014. Has ict polarized skill demand? evidence from eleven countries over twenty-five years. Review of Economics and Statistics, 96(1), pp. 60-77 [ CrossRef]
Pacifico, D., 2014. Sreweight: A Stata command to reweight survey data to external totals. The Stata Journal, 14(1), pp. 4-21 [ CrossRef]
Prettner, K. and Strulik, H., 2020. Innovation, automation, and inequality: Policy challenges in the race against the machine. Journal of Monetary Economics, 116, pp. 249-265 [ CrossRef]
Sutherland, H. and Figari, F., 2013. EUROMOD: the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation model. International Journal of Microsimulation, 6(1), pp. 4-26 [ CrossRef]
|
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December, 2023
IV/2023
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