The interplay of supply and demand shocks: measuring potential output in the COVID-19 pandemic*
https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.45.4.4 | Published online: December 6, 2021 Figure 1
Comparison of different methodological approaches to estimating potential GDP and output gap Figure 2
Illustration of the impact of pandemic shock on potential GDP and the output gap given the different nature of the shock Figure 3
Estimation of potential output before and after the GDP 2020 data release (HRK bn) Figure 4
Production factor contributions to potential output growth (in percentage, percentage points) Figure 5
Potential growth and output gap estimated using different calibrations of the effect of the COVID-19 crisis on the trend and cycle component of TFP Note: The letter D denotes a demand shock and the letter S a supply shock. Source: Author’s calculations. Figure 6
Output gap and capacity utilization rate in Croatia (percentage) Note: The output gap is expressed as a share of potential GDP, and the capital utilization rate as a share of total production capacity of the manufacturing industry. Source: European Commission (2020); authors’ calculations. Table A3.1
Data sources
Table A4.1
Data sources
Table A5.1
Assumptions used to calculate potential GDP
Figure A5.1
Comparison of contributions to potential GDP growth, EC – left, ours – right (in percentage, percentage points) Figure A5.2
Comparison of the potential GDP estimate from December 2020 and December 2019, EC – left, our estimate – right (HRK bn) Figure A5.3
Comparison of the potential growth estimate from December 2020 and December 2019, EC – left, our estimate – right (percentage) Note: The revision of the potential GDP growth rate in 2016 on the right chart follows from the revisions of data related to the labour market and is not a consequence of the problems related to the estimation of potential GDP in the context of the corona crisis. Sources: European Commission, authors’ calculations. Figure A5.4
Comparison of the output gap (percentage) Sources: European Commission, authors’ calculations.
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December, 2021 IV/2021 |
