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The puzzle of household savings in the European Union: tracing influences across time and space
Ana Skoblar* 
Article | Year: 2024 | Pages: 247 - 282 | Volume: 48 | Issue: 48 Received: June 1, 2023 | Accepted: May 15, 2024 | Published online: September 3, 2024
|
FULL ARTICLE
FIGURES & DATA
REFERENCES
CROSSMARK POLICY
METRICS
LICENCING
PDF
|
Category
|
Determinant
|
Expected
sign
|
Empirical
findings
|
|
Income
|
Disposable income: level
|
+
|
(0) 5,
6; (+) 1, 2, 3, 7, 12, 13, 15, 16, 17, 19
|
|
Disposable income: temporary/permanent
|
+/0 or
-/0
|
(0) 7,
15 / (0) 7 (+) 15
|
|
GDP/disposable income growth
|
Ambiguous
|
(-) 11,
13, 16; (0) 5, 6; (+) 2, 3, 4, 7, 10, 12, 15, 19, 22
|
|
Terms of trade index: level
|
Ambiguous
|
(0) 15,
16; (+) 2, 6, 7, 8, 17, 19, 22
|
|
Terms of trade index; temporary/permanent
|
+/0 or
-/0
|
(+) 7,
15 / (+) 7, 15
|
|
Income inequality
|
Ambiguous
|
(0) 3,
15
|
|
Tourism revenues
|
Ambiguous
|
|
|
Personal remittances
|
Ambiguous
|
(0) 16
|
|
Wealth
|
Household wealth
|
-
|
(0) 2,
6; (-) 17
|
|
Home ownership
|
-
|
(0) 16
|
|
Rate of return
|
Real interest rate
|
Ambiguous
|
(-) 7,
8; (0) 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 14, 19; (+) 11, 15, 18
|
|
Government bond yield
|
Ambiguous
|
(-) 16
|
|
Uncertainty
|
Inflation
|
Ambiguous
|
(-) 16;
(0) 1, 2, 3, 8; 14, 16, 19; (+) 4, 7, 11, 13, 15, 17, 18
|
|
Unemployment rate
|
+
|
(0) 18; (+)
13, 16, 21
|
|
GDP volatility
|
+
|
(0) 17
|
|
Real oil price
|
-
|
(-) 15;
(0) 19
|
|
Consumer confidence
|
-
|
(-) 23
|
|
Financial liberalization
|
Loans to households
|
-
|
(-) 3,
5, 7, 9, 12, 17, 19; (0) 15
|
|
Market capitalization
|
Ambiguous
|
|
|
Flow of loans to households
|
-
|
(-) 15
|
|
Foreign borrowing constraints
|
Capital account deficit
|
-
|
(-) 1,
2, 3, 10; (+) 18
|
|
Capital flow restrictions
|
+
|
(0) 7,
15
|
|
Demography
|
Young age dependency (a)
|
-
|
(-) 7,
12
|
|
Old age dependency (b)
|
-
|
(-) 4,
7, 13, 14, 15, 19, 20; (0) 8, 11, 12, 21
|
|
Age dependency (a+b)
|
-
|
(-) 2,
3, 10; (0) 5, 6, 16
|
|
Prime savers
|
+
|
|
|
Urbanization rate
|
-
|
(-) 3,
7, 11, 12, 15; (0) 19; (+) 17
|
|
Life expectancy
|
+
|
(0) 16;
(+) 19
|
|
Participation of +65 in labour market
|
-
|
(+) 21
|
|
Fiscal policy
|
Budget balance
|
-
|
(-) 2,
5, 6, 13, 16, 18, 19, 22
|
|
Public saving
|
-
|
(-) 1,
3, 4, 7, 8, 10, 14, 17; (0) 15
|
|
Public debt
|
-
|
(-) 2,
6, 13, 16
|
|
Government expenditure
|
Welfare expenditures
|
Ambiguous
|
(-) 2,
6, 13, 16
|
|
Health expenditures
|
Ambiguous
|
(-) 19;
(0) 15
|
|
Education expenditures
|
Ambiguous
|
(0) 15
|
|
Social protection expenditures
|
Ambiguous
|
(-) 3,
4, 5, 16, 21
|
Notes: (1) Corbo and Schmidt-Hebbel (1991), (2) Masson,Bayoumi and Samiei (1995), (3) Edwards (1996), (4) Callen and Thimann (1997), (5) Baillu and Reisen (1998), (6) Haque, Pesaran and Sharma (1999), (7) Loayza, Schmidt-Hebbel and Servén (2000), (8) de Serres and Pelgrin (2003), (9) Bandiera et al (2000), (10) Schrooten and Stephan (2005), (11) Niculescu-Aron and Mihaescu (2012), (12) Samwick (2000), (13) Kessler, Perelman and Pestieau (1993), (14) OECD (2001), (15) Grigoli, Herman and Schmidt-Hebbel (2014), (16) Rocher and Stierle (2015) (17) Kolasa and Liberda (2015), (18) Kukk and Staehr (2015), (19) Hernando et al. (2018), (20) Kharazi et al. (2022), (21) Fredriksson and Staal (2021), (22) Oinonen and Viren (2022), (23) Vanlaer, Bielen and Marneffe (2020).
Note: The periods marked in light grey indicate periods of structural changes in household savings (periods of financial crisis and pandemics). Source: Eurostat, author’s calculations.
Notes: Average refers to the average household saving rate for the time period from 2000 until 2021. Source: Eurostat, author’s calculations.
|
Household saving
|
Household disposable
income
|
Real GDP growth
|
Terms of trade index
|
Age dependency
|
Real interest rate
|
Loans to households
|
Budget balance
|
Inflation
|
Consumer confidence
|
|
Household saving
|
1.00
|
0.54
|
-0.43
|
0.51
|
0.10
|
0.20
|
0.38
|
0.12
|
-0.41
|
0.25
|
|
Household disposable income
|
0.45
|
1.00
|
-0.29
|
0.36
|
0.36
|
0.11
|
0.33
|
0.25
|
-0.54
|
-0.05
|
|
Real GDP growth
|
-0.30
|
-0.39
|
1.00
|
-0.34
|
-0.17
|
-0.30
|
-0.39
|
0.12
|
0.41
|
0.24
|
|
Terms of trade index
|
0.43
|
0.42
|
-0.18
|
1.00
|
-0.14
|
0.10
|
0.08
|
0.08
|
-0.32
|
0.40
|
|
Age dependency
|
0.11
|
0.29
|
-0.05
|
0.02
|
1.00
|
-0.08
|
0.48
|
0.18
|
-0.01
|
-0.14
|
|
Real interest rate
|
0.06
|
-0.22
|
-0.28
|
-0.15
|
-0.17
|
1.00
|
0.03
|
-0.32
|
-0.31
|
0.00
|
|
Loans to households
|
0.31
|
0.42
|
-0.38
|
0.11
|
0.31
|
-0.03
|
1.00
|
0.25
|
-0.43
|
-0.24
|
|
Budget balance
|
-0.09
|
0.07
|
0.32
|
0.01
|
0.07
|
-0.18
|
0.00
|
1.00
|
0.05
|
0.21
|
|
Inflation
|
-0.05
|
-0.17
|
0.04
|
-0.20
|
-0.08
|
0.06
|
-0.09
|
0.10
|
1.00
|
-0.15
|
|
Consumer confidence
|
-0.08
|
-0.01
|
0.54
|
0.00
|
0.08
|
-0.28
|
-0.15
|
0.43
|
-0.04
|
1.00
|
|
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
(4)
|
(5)
|
(6)
|
|
OLS FE
|
LSDVc
|
GMM
|
|
with country effects
|
with time and country effects
|
Arellano-Bond
|
Anderson-Hsiao
|
Blundell-Bond
|
Arellano-Bond GMM
|
|
Lag dependent variable
|
0.605***
|
0.726***
|
0.647***
|
0.649***
|
0.675***
|
0.569***
|
|
(-0.060)
|
(-0.057)
|
(-0.034)
|
(-0.037)
|
(-0.032)
|
(-0.055)
|
|
Household disposable income
|
0.073***
|
0.057***
|
0.071***
|
0.075***
|
0.070***
|
0.072***
|
|
(-0.086)
|
(-0.013)
|
(-0.079)
|
(-0.091)
|
(-0.076)
|
(-0.094)
|
|
Real GDP growth
|
0.407***
|
0.473***
|
0.415***
|
0.418***
|
0.425***
|
0.377***
|
|
(-0.042)
|
(-0.040)
|
(-0.043)
|
(-0.047)
|
(-0.040)
|
(-0.044)
|
|
Terms of trade index
|
0.021
|
0.019
|
0.013
|
0.009
|
0.017
|
0.026
|
|
(-0.027)
|
(-0.019)
|
(-0.028)
|
(-0.031)
|
(-0.027)
|
(-0.029)
|
|
Age dependency
|
0.067
|
-0.034
|
0.061
|
0.065
|
0.053
|
0.072
|
|
(-0.046)
|
(-0.042)
|
(-0.041)
|
(-0.048)
|
(-0.040)
|
(-0.049)
|
|
Real interest rate
|
0.360***
|
0.396***
|
0.356***
|
0.360***
|
0.360***
|
0.337***
|
|
(-0.064)
|
(-0.056)
|
(-0.050)
|
(-0.054)
|
(-0.047)
|
(-0.063)
|
|
Loans to households
|
-0.052**
|
-0.023**
|
-0.048***
|
-0.054***
|
-0.049***
|
-0.055***
|
|
(-0.019)
|
(-0.015)
|
(-0.013)
|
(-0.014)
|
(-0.012)
|
(-0.019)
|
|
Budget balance
|
-0.254***
|
-0.107***
|
-0.241***
|
-0.243***
|
-0.237***
|
-0.285***
|
|
(-0.059)
|
(-0.036)
|
(-0.040)
|
(-0.044)
|
(-0.038)
|
(-0.061)
|
|
Inflation
|
-0.424
|
-0.560
|
-0.467
|
-0.289
|
-0.333
|
-0.293
|
|
(-0.020)
|
(-0.014)
|
(-0.015)
|
(-0.012)
|
(-0.011)
|
(-0.012)
|
|
Consumer confidence
|
-0.071***
|
-0.067***
|
-0.072***
|
-0.072***
|
-0.074***
|
-0.068***
|
|
(-0.019)
|
(-0.016)
|
(-0.015)
|
(-0.017)
|
(-0.014)
|
(-0.020)
|
|
Time fixed effects
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
|
Country fixed effects
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
|
N
|
535
|
535
|
535
|
535
|
535
|
509
|
|
r2
|
0.674
|
0.793
|
.
|
.
|
.
|
.
|
|
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
(4)
|
(5)
|
(6)
|
(7)
|
(8)
|
|
Baseline
|
X=2020
|
X=2021
|
X=2020-2021
|
X=2008-2010
|
X=EA
|
X=CEE
|
X=Croatia
|
|
Lag dependent variable
|
0.569***
|
0.693***
|
0.637***
|
0.682***
|
0.592***
|
0.507***
|
0.645***
|
0.574***
|
|
(-0.055)
|
(-0.051)
|
(-0.062)
|
(-0.052)
|
(-0.054)
|
(-0.102)
|
(-0.076)
|
(-0.056)
|
|
Disposable household income
|
0.072***
|
0.058***
|
0.076***
|
0.063***
|
0.074***
|
0.075***
|
0.071***
|
0.072***
|
|
(-0.094)
|
(-0.077)
|
(-0.083)
|
(-0.070)
|
(-0.093)
|
(-0.247)
|
(-0.177)
|
(-0.194)
|
|
Real growth of GDP
|
0.377***
|
0.415***
|
0.427***
|
0.422***
|
0.419***
|
0.363***
|
0.414***
|
0.385***
|
|
(-0.044)
|
(-0.050)
|
(-0.050)
|
(-0.053)
|
(-0.064)
|
(-0.069)
|
(-0.081)
|
(-0.044)
|
|
Terms of trade index
|
0.026
|
0.013
|
0.037
|
0.014
|
0.010
|
-0.042
|
0.082
|
0.025
|
|
(-0.029)
|
(-0.020)
|
(-0.033)
|
(-0.021)
|
(-0.027)
|
(-0.061)
|
(-0.050)
|
(-0.030)
|
|
Age dependency
|
0.072
|
-0.003
|
0.135***
|
0.015
|
0.049
|
0.144
|
-0.037
|
0.072
|
|
(-0.049)
|
(-0.038)
|
(-0.050)
|
(-0.040)
|
(-0.052)
|
(-0.100)
|
(-0.069)
|
(-0.048)
|
|
Real interest rate
|
0.337***
|
0.383***
|
0.342***
|
0.391***
|
0.339***
|
0.373***
|
0.096***
|
0.333***
|
|
(-0.063)
|
(-0.059)
|
(-0.059)
|
(-0.061)
|
(-0.077)
|
(-0.124)
|
(-0.103)
|
(-0.063)
|
|
Loans to households
|
-0.055***
|
-0.027*
|
-0.055***
|
-0.034**
|
-0.059***
|
-0.016
|
-0.059***
|
-0.055***
|
|
(-0.019)
|
(-0.016)
|
(-0.017)
|
(-0.014)
|
(-0.017)
|
(-0.043)
|
(-0.019)
|
(-0.019)
|
|
Budget balance
|
-0.285***
|
-0.141***
|
-0.312***
|
-0.168***
|
-0.347***
|
-0.394***
|
-0.272***
|
-0.285***
|
|
(-0.061)
|
(-0.038)
|
(-0.069)
|
(-0.044)
|
(-0.050)
|
(-0.073)
|
(-0.062)
|
(-0.062)
|
|
Inflation
|
-0.003
|
0.018
|
0.008
|
0.019***
|
-0.012
|
-0.033***
|
-0.014**
|
-0.016**
|
|
(-0.011)
|
(-0.011)
|
(-0.012)
|
(-0.012)
|
(-0.012)
|
(-0.018)
|
(-0.008)
|
(-0.003)
|
|
Consumer confidence
|
-0.068***
|
-0.052***
|
-0.069***
|
-0.053***
|
-0.064***
|
-0.063**
|
-0.069***
|
-0.076***
|
|
(-0.197)
|
(-0.167)
|
(-0.208)
|
(-0.163)
|
(-0.181)
|
(-0.254)
|
(-0.228)
|
(-0.197)
|
|
X*Lag dependent variable
|
|
-0.065*
|
|
-0.262***
|
-0.070***
|
0.09
|
-0.117***
|
-0.061***
|
|
(-0.035)
|
|
(-0.065)
|
(-0.023)
|
(-0.118)
|
(-0.106)
|
(-0.056)
|
|
X*Disposable household income
|
|
0.004
|
0.024
|
0.0547***
|
-0.053***
|
0.023***
|
0.006
|
0.065
|
|
(-0.024)
|
(-0.027)
|
(-0.021)
|
(-0.008)
|
(-0.026)
|
(-0.020)
|
(-0.009)
|
|
X*Real growth of GDP
|
|
0.132
|
0.008
|
-0.225
|
-0.162**
|
0.059***
|
-0.005
|
-0.005
|
|
(-0.225)
|
(-0.216)
|
(-0.204)
|
(-0.082)
|
(-0.092)
|
(-0.104)
|
(-0.044)
|
|
X*Terms of trade index
|
|
0.365
|
-0.119
|
-0.014
|
0.095***
|
0.132
|
-0.077
|
0.067***
|
|
(-0.209)
|
(-0.111)
|
(-0.083)
|
(-0.033)
|
(-0.083)
|
(-0.060)
|
(-0.030)
|
|
X*Age dependency
|
|
-0.078
|
-0.115
|
-0.072
|
0.186***
|
-0.112
|
0.182**
|
0.164***
|
|
(-0.072)
|
(-0.061)
|
(-0.063)
|
(-0.043)
|
(-0.116)
|
(-0.081)
|
(-0.048)
|
|
X*Real interest rate
|
|
0.079
|
-0.072
|
0.217
|
-0.218***
|
-0.028
|
0.353***
|
0.028***
|
|
(-0.451)
|
(-0.257)
|
(-0.273)
|
(-0.076)
|
(-0.143)
|
(-0.129)
|
(-0.063)
|
|
X*Loans to households
|
|
0.016
|
0.001
|
-0.024
|
0.006
|
-0.045
|
0.045
|
-0.078
|
|
(-0.037)
|
(-0.024)
|
(-0.027)
|
(-0.008)
|
(-0.047)
|
(-0.037)
|
(-0.019)
|
|
X*Budget balance
|
|
-0.305***
|
0.149
|
-0.017***
|
-0.133***
|
0.134
|
0.031
|
-0.037
|
|
(-0.174)
|
(-0.149)
|
(-0.143)
|
(-0.076)
|
(-0.099)
|
(-0.090)
|
(-0.062)
|
|
X*Inflation
|
|
-0.061
|
-0.006***
|
-0.064***
|
0.001
|
0.036
|
-0.046***
|
-0.055***
|
|
(-0.076)
|
(-0.084)
|
(-0.056)
|
(-0.033)
|
(-0.025)
|
(-0.026)
|
(-0.011)
|
|
X*Consumer confidence
|
|
-0.075***
|
0.014
|
-0.017***
|
-0.080***
|
-0.082
|
-0.043***
|
-0.049***
|
|
(-0.094)
|
(-0.074)
|
(-0.057)
|
(-0.023)
|
(-0.037)
|
(-0.038)
|
(-0.097)
|
|
Observations
|
509
|
509
|
509
|
509
|
509
|
509
|
509
|
509
|
|
AR(1) p-val
|
0.000
|
0.001
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
|
AR(2) p-val
|
0.354
|
0.405
|
0.4
|
0.364
|
0.231
|
0.325
|
0.398
|
0.351
|
|
Sargan p-val
|
0.436
|
0.447
|
0.277
|
0.362
|
0.37
|
0.309
|
0.35
|
0.32
|
Source: Author’s calculations.
|
Category
|
Variable
|
Description
|
No. of observations
|
Mean
|
St. Dev.
|
Min
|
Max
|
Main
source for variable construction
|
|
Dependent variable
|
Household saving rate
|
Household saving to disposable income adjusted
for pension funds
|
572
|
9.1
|
6.6
|
-20.7
|
25.2
|
Eurostat;
estimate for Croatia
|
|
Income
|
Household disposable income
|
Real household disposable income (in
PPS) per capita
|
572
|
17,724.5
|
6,128.5
|
4,137.8
|
35,607.4
|
Eurostat;
estimate for Croatia
|
|
Real GDP growth
|
Real GDP per capita growth rate
|
572
|
2.2
|
3.6
|
-13.8
|
18.2
|
Eurostat
|
|
Terms of trade
|
Terms of trade index
|
572
|
98.6
|
5.3
|
64.4
|
113.8
|
Ameco
|
|
Gini index
|
Index of the distribution of income
across a population
|
504
|
29.7
|
4.1
|
20.9
|
40.8
|
Eurostat
|
|
Tourism
|
Contribution of tourism to the GDP (% of
GDP)
|
572
|
9.9
|
4.5
|
1.2
|
25.0
|
WTTC
|
|
Remittances
|
Personal remittances from abroad (% of GDP)
|
520
|
1.3
|
1.4
|
0.1
|
8.2
|
World
Bank
|
|
Pension
|
Net equity changes in pension fund
reserves
|
572
|
1.0
|
1.3
|
-0.3
|
5.0
|
Eurostat
|
|
Wealth
|
Household wealth
|
Net household wealth (% GDP)
|
571
|
106.0
|
58.9
|
20.4
|
325.0
|
Eurostat;
calculations
|
|
Home ownership
|
Percentage of population owning a home
|
425
|
75.7
|
10.6
|
49.5
|
97.6
|
Eurostat
|
|
Rate of return
|
Real interest rate
|
Real short term interest rate on
deposits adjusted with GDP deflator
|
561
|
-0.3
|
2.8
|
-9.5
|
25.2
|
Ameco
|
|
Bond yield
|
The yield spread of the government bond
and 10-year German bond
|
551
|
1.3
|
1.9
|
-4.0
|
21.0
|
Eurostat;
calculations
|
|
Uncertainty
|
Inflation
|
Deviation of inflation in relation to
the historical average
|
572
|
100.0
|
9.8
|
79.6
|
132.8
|
Eurostat;
calculations
|
|
Unemployment rate
|
Unemployment rate in % of the total labour
force; ILO
|
572
|
8.6
|
4.4
|
1.8
|
27.5
|
World
Bank
|
|
GDP volatility
|
Volatility of real GDP growth using the
GARCH method
|
569
|
0.0
|
1.0
|
-3.7
|
3.1
|
Eurostat;
calculations
|
|
Real oil price
|
The real price of oil as a proxy of
global events
|
572
|
78.8
|
31.8
|
37.2
|
136.6
|
EIA
|
|
Consumer confidence
|
Deviation of consumer confidence in
relation to the historical average
|
572
|
98.2
|
16.4
|
70.0
|
125.2
|
DG ECFIN
survey; calculations
|
|
Financial liberalization
|
Loans to households
|
Share of domestic credit to households (%
of GDP)
|
572
|
49.2
|
29.2
|
0.9
|
141.6
|
Eurostat
|
|
Flow of credit to households
|
Household loans based on transactions (%
of GDP)
|
572
|
2.7
|
3.3
|
-5.9
|
18.3
|
Eurostat
|
|
Market capitalization
|
Share of market capitalization (% of
GDP)
|
572
|
49.9
|
43.6
|
0.6
|
326.4
|
World
Bank, World Foreign Exchanges
|
|
International financial integration
|
Capital account balance
|
Capital account balance (% of GDP)
|
544
|
-0.8
|
5.6
|
-23.9
|
14.4
|
World
Bank
|
|
Chinn-Ito index
|
A measure of financial openness
|
569
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
1.0
|
Portland
State University1
|
|
Quinn index
|
Capital account openness index
|
520
|
0.1
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
1.0
|
Columbia
University2
|
|
Demographics
|
Young-age dependency ratio
|
Share of young people aged 15-24 relative
to working population (a)
|
569
|
12.2
|
1.7
|
8.8
|
17.1
|
Eurostat;
calculations
|
|
Old-age dependency ratio
|
Share of +65 aged relative to working
population (b)
|
572
|
31.5
|
5.2
|
10.8
|
44.7
|
Eurostat;
calculations
|
|
Prime savers
|
Share of the population aged 45-54 in
relation to the total population
|
572
|
26.2
|
2.1
|
20.7
|
30.5
|
Eurostat;
calculations
|
|
Age dependency
|
a+b
|
572
|
64.4
|
5.8
|
52.3
|
80.4
|
Eurostat
|
|
Participation of +65
|
Share of the population over 65 years of
age that is in labour market
|
559
|
5.6
|
4.0
|
0.9
|
34.1
|
Eurostat;
calculations
|
|
Life expectancy
|
Life expectancy at 65 years of age
|
565
|
15.4
|
6.0
|
2.0
|
22.0
|
Eurostat
|
|
Urbanization rate
|
Share of the population living in urban
areas of the country
|
572
|
71.8
|
12.2
|
50.8
|
98.1
|
World
Bank
|
|
Fiscal policy
|
Budget balance
|
Government surplus/deficit (% of GDP)
|
572
|
-2.6
|
3.6
|
-32.1
|
6.9
|
Eurostat
|
|
Public saving
|
Public savings (% of GDP)
|
571
|
1.6
|
3.2
|
-10.0
|
10.4
|
Eurostat
|
|
Public debt
|
Consolidated gross government debt (% of
GDP)
|
570
|
58.9
|
35.9
|
3.8
|
206.3
|
Eurostat
|
|
Welfare
|
Government expenditures for soc
protection, education and health (% of GDP)
|
526
|
27.8
|
5.4
|
16.6
|
41.8
|
Eurostat;
calculations
|
|
Public health expenditure
|
Government expenditures for healthcare
(% of GDP)
|
526
|
6.2
|
1.3
|
3.2
|
10.1
|
Eurostat
|
|
Public education expenditure
|
Government expenditures for education (%
of GDP)
|
526
|
5.1
|
1.0
|
2.8
|
7.1
|
Eurostat
|
|
Social protection
|
Government expenditures for social
protection (% of GDP)
|
565
|
17.0
|
4.4
|
7.9
|
28.6
|
Eurostat
|
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September, 2024
III/2024
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