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Understanding territorial inequalities in decentralised welfare systems: early childhood education and care system expansion in Croatia
Ivana Dobrotić*
Teo Matković*
Teo Matković
Affiliation: Institute for Social Research in Zagreb, Centre for Educational Research and Development,Zagreb, Croatia
0000-0002-3538-1873
Article | Year: 2023 | Pages: 89 - 110 | Volume: 47 | Issue: 1 Received: June 27, 2022 | Accepted: September 22, 2022 | Published online: March 6, 2023
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FULL ARTICLE
FIGURES & DATA
REFERENCES
CROSSMARK POLICY
METRICS
LICENCING
PDF
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Year
|
LGU revenue
(mil HRK)
|
LGU revenue
(mil HRK, 2018 prices)
|
Tax
reform area: (effective since)
Type of the reform (affecting LGUs disposable income in positive (increase)
or negative (decrease) way)
|
Real GDP growth, %
|
Year on year local revenue growth
(fixed prices), %
|
% of public revenues
|
% of GDP
|
|
2004
|
12.515
|
16.412
|
-
|
3.9
|
6.8
|
11.5
|
5.0
|
|
2005
|
13.935
|
17.692
|
Personal income tax: (Jan 2005)
Growth in personal deduction rate (-)
|
4.1
|
7.8
|
12.0
|
5.2
|
|
2006
|
15.857
|
19.507
|
-
|
4.9
|
10.3
|
12.5
|
5.4
|
|
2007
|
18.434
|
22.040
|
Financing of LGUs: (Jan 2007)
Growth in share of income tax assigned to LGUs (+)
Growth in share of income tax assigned to decentralisation function (+)
|
5.3
|
13.0
|
13.3
|
5.7
|
|
2008
|
19.967
|
22.516
|
Personal income tax: (Jul 2008)
Growth in personal deduction rate (-)
|
2.0
|
2.2
|
13.5
|
5.7
|
|
2009
|
18.857
|
20.766
|
-
|
-7.3
|
-7.8
|
13.5
|
5.7
|
|
2010
|
17.724
|
19.321
|
Personal income tax: (Jul 2010)
Change in personal income tax categories (-)
|
-1.5
|
-7.0
|
12.9
|
5.4
|
|
2011
|
16.882
|
17.992
|
-
|
-0.3
|
-6.9
|
12.5
|
5.1
|
|
2012
|
17.295
|
17.818
|
Financing of LGUs: (Mar 2012)
Growth in share of income tax assigned to LGUs (+)
|
-2.3
|
-1.0
|
12.3
|
5.2
|
|
2013
|
18.521
|
18.668
|
Personal income tax: (Jan 2013)
Growth in personal deduction rate (-)
|
-0.5
|
4.8
|
13.2
|
5.6
|
|
2014
|
18.323
|
18.505
|
-
|
-0.1
|
-0.9
|
12.9
|
5.5
|
|
2015
|
17.779
|
18.046
|
Financing of LGUs: (Jan 2015)
Growth in share of income tax assigned to LGUs (+)
Growth in share of income tax assigned to decentralisation function (-)
Growth in the share of real estate transfer tax assigned to LGUs (+)
Personal income tax: (Jan 2015)
Growth in personal deduction rate (-)
|
2.4
|
-2.5
|
11.6
|
5.2
|
|
2016
|
18.511
|
18.992
|
-
|
3.5
|
5.2
|
11.4
|
5.3
|
|
2017
|
18.904
|
19.188
|
Financing of LGUs: (Jan 2017)
Change in local taxes (-)
Growth in the share of real estate transfer tax assigned to LGUs (+)
Personal income tax: (Jan 2015)
Change in personal income tax categories (-)
|
2.9
|
1.0
|
11.2
|
5.2
|
|
2018
|
21.644
|
21.644
|
Financing of LGUs: (Jan 2018)
Growth in share of income tax assigned to LGUs (+)
Fiscal equalization formula (+)
|
2.6
|
12.8
|
12.2
|
5.7
|
Sources: Ministry of Finance (financial reports of LGUs), Croatian National Bank (consolidated public expenditures and GDP), Acts on personal income tax, Acts on the financing of regional and local government units, Acts on local taxes, Acts on real estate transfer tax.
Source: Calculated from Croatian Bureau of Statistics and Ministry of Finances data. Regular
programs only.
Source: Calculated from Croatian Bureau of Statistics and Ministry of Finance data. Regular
programs only.
Note: Bubble size denotes size of preschool population (0-6) in the LGU. Source: Calculated from Croatian Bureau of Statistics and Ministry of Finance data. Regular
programs only.
|
|
Coef.
|
Std.
err. (cluster)
|
|
Fiscal capacity: revenues per capita (HRK 1.000)
|
3.02***
|
(0.39)
|
|
Fiscal autonomy: share of local revenues (%)
|
0.14***
|
(0.03)
|
|
Surtax (%)
|
0.13
|
(0.17)
|
|
Commitment to ECEC- share in budgetary expenditure (%)
|
1.37***
|
(0.20)
|
|
LGU authority over primary education (yes)
|
7.34***
|
(2.13)
|
|
Population size (ref. 2-5,000)
|
|
|
|
up to 2,000
|
-4.14*
|
(1.69)
|
|
over 5,000
|
4.54*
|
(1.94)
|
|
Degree of urbanisation (DEGURBA) (ref: Cities)
|
|
|
|
Towns and suburbs (intermediate)
|
-2.56
|
(2.66)
|
|
Rural areas (thinly populated)
|
-7.11*
|
(3.14)
|
|
Island
|
8.24**
|
(2.94)
|
|
Mountain LGU
|
-0.74
|
(2.14)
|
|
Constant
|
2.71
|
(3.97)
|
N=1.662, groups: 554, R2 =0.440 *p<0.05, **p<0.01, ***p<0.001.
|
Annual change in revenue per
capita (fixed prices)
|
Average annual change in enrolment
rate in the subsequent year
|
|
Decrease >1000 HRK
|
0.64 p.p
|
|
Decrease 300-1000 HRK
|
0.90 p,p,
|
|
Minor change
|
1.26 p.p
|
|
Increase 300-1000 HRK
|
1.45 p.p
|
|
Increase >1000 HRK
|
1.00 p.p.
|
|
Total
|
1.19 p.p.
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Note: Only LGUs with existing ECEC capacity. Outliers excluded.
|
|
Coef.
|
Std.
Err.
|
|
Growth in LGU revenues in the previous year (per million
HRK, fixed prices)
|
0.89***
|
(0.12)
|
|
Decrease in LGU revenues in the previous year (per million
HRK, fixed prices)
|
-0.08
|
(0.08)
|
|
Growth of pre-school population size (per child)
|
0.69***
|
(0.03)
|
|
Decline in pre-school population size (per child)
|
-0.25
|
(0.22)
|
|
Constant
|
3.01
|
(2.16)
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N=4.530, clusters:417, R2=0.36 *p<0.05, **p<0.01, ***p<0.001.
|
|
(1)
Change in ECEC budget per capita (real prices) (HRK)
|
(2)
Change in share of budget dedicated to ECEC
|
(3)
Change in ECEC public expenditure per enrolled child (HRK)
|
(4)
Change in a pupil-educator ratio
|
|
Growth in LGU budget per capita (fixed prices) (000 HRK)
|
32.63**
|
-0.45***
|
1472**
|
|
|
Decrease in LGU budget per capita (fixed prices) (000 HRK)
|
-36.18***
|
0.48***
|
-1821***
|
|
|
Growth of preschool population size (%)
|
1.27
|
0.04
|
|
0.03
|
|
Decline of preschool population size (%)
|
-2.03
|
-0.04*
|
|
|
|
Change in ECEC enrolment rate (p.p.)
|
|
|
-433***
|
0.16***
|
|
Change in public expenditure per enrolled child
|
|
|
|
-0.00
|
|
Commitment to ECEC – share in budgetary expenditure during
the previous year (%)
|
-9.80***
|
|
-520***
|
-0.00
|
|
Constant
|
96.81***
|
0.27***
|
5076***
|
-0.35***
|
|
R2
|
0.093
|
0.027
|
0.134
|
0.041
|
|
N
|
4488
|
4488
|
4488
|
4475
|
N=4.530, clusters:417, R2=0.36 *p<0.05, **p<0.01, ***p<0.001.
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March, 2023 I/2023
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