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Unexpected inflation and public pensions: the case of Hungary
András Simonovits* 
Article | Year: 2023 | Pages: 505 - 520 | Volume: 47 | Issue: 4 Received: March 13, 2023 | Accepted: July 21, 2023 | Published online: December 11, 2023
|
FULL ARTICLE
FIGURES & DATA
REFERENCES
CROSSMARK POLICY
METRICS
LICENCING
PDF
|
Decile
|
Food
|
Relative
income
|
Household
energy
|
|
1
|
33
|
41.2
|
14
|
|
2
|
32
|
50.9
|
|
3
|
29
|
61.4
|
13
|
|
4
|
29
|
75.4
|
|
5
|
28
|
87.7
|
11
|
|
6
|
27
|
99.1
|
|
7
|
27
|
109.6
|
11
|
|
8
|
25
|
124.6
|
|
9
|
24
|
150.0
|
9
|
|
10
|
21
|
193.0
|
|
Average
|
26
|
100.0
|
12
|
Source: Claeys et al. (2023).
|
Year
|
Month
|
Monthly
change
|
Cumulated
monthly price level
|
12-month
price index
|
Annual
price index
|
|
t
|
h
|
pt,h
|
Pt,h
|
It,h
|
Pt,
|
|
2021
|
1
|
1.009
|
1.009
|
0
|
|
|
2
|
1.008
|
1.017
|
0
|
|
|
3
|
1.007
|
1.024
|
0
|
|
|
4
|
1.008
|
1.032
|
0
|
|
|
5
|
1.005
|
1.038
|
0
|
|
|
6
|
1.006
|
1.044
|
0
|
|
|
7
|
1.004
|
1.048
|
0
|
|
|
8
|
1.002
|
1.050
|
0
|
|
|
9
|
1.002
|
1.052
|
0
|
|
|
10
|
1.011
|
1.064
|
0
|
|
|
11
|
1.007
|
1.071
|
0
|
|
|
12
|
1.003
|
1.074
|
0
|
1.051
|
|
2022
|
1
|
1.015
|
1.090
|
1.081
|
|
|
2
|
1.011
|
1.102
|
1.084
|
|
|
3
|
1.010
|
1.114
|
1.087
|
|
|
4
|
1.016
|
1.131
|
1.096
|
|
|
5
|
1.017
|
1.151
|
1.109
|
|
|
6
|
1.015
|
1.168
|
1.119
|
|
|
7
|
1.023
|
1.195
|
1.140
|
|
|
8
|
1.018
|
1.216
|
1.158
|
|
|
9
|
1.041
|
1.266
|
1.203
|
|
|
10
|
1.019
|
1.290
|
1.213
|
|
|
11
|
1.018
|
1.313
|
1.226
|
|
|
12
|
1.019
|
1.338
|
1.246
|
1.147
|
|
2023
|
1
|
1.023
|
1.369
|
1.255
|
|
|
2
|
1.015
|
1.390
|
1.260
|
|
|
3
|
1.005
|
1.397
|
1.254
|
|
|
4
|
1.005
|
1.404
|
1.241
|
|
|
5
|
1.015
|
1.425
|
1.238
|
|
|
6
|
1.002
|
1.427
|
1.222
|
|
|
7
|
0.996
|
1.422
|
1.190
|
|
|
8
|
1.003
|
1.426
|
1.173
|
|
|
9
|
1.003
|
1.430
|
1.130
|
|
|
10
|
1.003
|
1.435
|
1.112
|
|
|
11
|
1.005
|
1.442
|
1.098
|
|
|
12
|
1.000
|
1.442
|
1.077
|
1.188
|
|
Year
|
Month
|
Nominal
|
Real
|
Nominal
|
Real
|
|
Annual
raise
|
Monthly
|
|
t
|
h
|
bt
|
bt,h
|
^bt,h
|
^bt,h
|
|
2021
|
1
|
1.044
|
1.034
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
2
|
1.044
|
1.026
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
3
|
1.044
|
1.019
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
4
|
1.044
|
1.011
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
5
|
1.044
|
1.006
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
6
|
1.044
|
1.000
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
7
|
1.044
|
0.996
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
8
|
1.044
|
0.994
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
9
|
1.044
|
0.992
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
10
|
1.044
|
0.981
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
11
|
1.044
|
0.974
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
12
|
1.044
|
0.971
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
2022
|
1
|
1.205
|
1.105
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
2
|
1.205
|
1.093
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
3
|
1.205
|
1.082
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
4
|
1.205
|
1.065
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
5
|
1.205
|
1.048
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
6
|
1.205
|
1.032
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
7
|
1.205
|
1.009
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
8
|
1.205
|
0.991
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
9
|
1.205
|
0.952
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
10
|
1.205
|
0.934
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
11
|
1.205
|
0.918
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
12
|
1.205
|
0.901
|
̶
|
̶
|
|
2023
|
1
|
1.431
|
1.045
|
1.383
|
1.010
|
|
2
|
1.431
|
1.030
|
1.404
|
1.010
|
|
3
|
1.431
|
1.025
|
1.411
|
1.010
|
|
4
|
1.431
|
1.020
|
1.418
|
1.010
|
|
5
|
1.431
|
1.005
|
1.439
|
1.010
|
|
6
|
1.431
|
1.003
|
1.442
|
1.010
|
|
7
|
1.431
|
1.007
|
1.437
|
1.010
|
|
8
|
1.431
|
1.004
|
1.441
|
1.010
|
|
9
|
1.431
|
1.001
|
1.445
|
1.010
|
|
10
|
1.431
|
0.998
|
1.450
|
1.010
|
|
11
|
1.431
|
0.993
|
1.457
|
1.010
|
|
12
|
1.431
|
0.993
|
1.457
|
1.010
|
|
Year: month
|
Nominal wage index
|
Inflation forecast
|
Delay impact
|
|
t
|
Gt
|
Pet,h
|
dt
|
|
2021
|
1.087
|
1.051*
|
–
|
|
2022:01
|
–
|
1.050
|
1.034
|
|
2022:08
|
–
|
1.089
|
0.998
|
|
2022:12
|
–
|
1.140
|
0.954
|
|
Year
|
Nominal wage index
|
Price index
|
Rationally
|
Naively
|
Inflationary acceleration
|
|
|
Annual change
|
Estimated impact of delay
|
|
|
t
|
Gt
|
Pt
|
dt
|
γt
|
πt
|
|
2010
|
1.068
|
1.049
|
1.028
|
1.018
|
0.990
|
|
2011
|
1.064
|
1.039
|
1.007
|
1.024
|
1.017
|
|
2012
|
1.021
|
1.057
|
1.004
|
0.966
|
0.962
|
|
2013
|
1.049
|
1.017
|
1.051
|
1.031
|
0.981
|
|
2014
|
1.030
|
0.998
|
1.031
|
1.032
|
1.001
|
|
2015
|
1.043
|
0.999
|
1.039
|
1.044
|
1.005
|
|
2016
|
1.078
|
1.004
|
1.053
|
1.074
|
1.020
|
|
2017
|
1.129
|
1.024
|
1.092
|
1.103
|
1.010
|
|
2018
|
1.113
|
1.034
|
1.076
|
1.076
|
1.000
|
|
2019
|
1.114
|
1.034
|
1.078
|
1.077
|
0.999
|
|
2020
|
1.097
|
1.033
|
1.044
|
1.062
|
1.017
|
|
2021
|
1.087
|
1.051
|
0.945
|
1.034
|
1.094
|
|
2022
|
–
|
1.148
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
|
|
|
In terms of average wage, 2012
Benefit for:
|
|
Year
|
Cumulated price level
|
average wage
|
bending point
|
average wage
|
triple wage
|
|
t
|
Pt
|
Ewt
|
w∗t
|
bt(1)
|
bt(3)
|
|
2012
|
100.0
|
100.0
|
277.8
|
–
|
–
|
|
2013
|
101.7
|
103.1
|
273.1
|
78.7
|
232.5
|
|
2014
|
101.5
|
106.5
|
273.7
|
82.7
|
242.2
|
|
2015
|
101.4
|
111.1
|
274.0
|
85.2
|
248.4
|
|
2016
|
101.8
|
119.3
|
272.9
|
88.6
|
256.2
|
|
2017
|
104.2
|
131.6
|
266.5
|
93.2
|
266.4
|
|
2018
|
107.8
|
141.6
|
257.7
|
101.8
|
285.5
|
|
2019
|
111.5
|
152.6
|
249.2
|
109.6
|
302.9
|
|
2020
|
115.1
|
162.0
|
241.3
|
118.2
|
322.2
|
|
2021
|
121.0
|
167.6
|
229.6
|
123.3
|
332.7
|
|
2022
|
139.2
|
167.6
|
199.6
|
116.6
|
311.7
|
|
2023*
|
164.6
|
162.9
|
168.7
|
113.3
|
299.0
|
Table 1Shares of expenditure on food and household energy, Hungary, 2020 (in %) DISPLAY Table
Figure 1Inflation rates for top and bottom quintiles, Hungary (in %, year-on-year) DISPLAY Figure
Table 2Annual and monthly price indices (actual and forecast) DISPLAY Table
Table 3Annual vs. monthly benefit raise, 2021-2023: counterfactual exact forecast DISPLAY Table
Table 4Three forecasts DISPLAY Table
Table 5The estimations of the impact of delaying retirement, 2010-2022 DISPLAY Table
Table 6The impact of the declining real value of bending point on high initial pensions, Hungary, 2012-2023 DISPLAY Table
* The author expresses his debt to Hans Fehr, Ádám Reiff, Balázs Reizer and two anonymous referees for their careful remarks on earlier versions.
|
|
December, 2023
IV/2023
|
