Unexpected inflation and public pensions: the case of Hungary

Simonovits, András

doi:10.3326/pse.47.4.6.

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Unexpected inflation and public pensions: the case of Hungary

András Simonovits*

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https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.47.4.6

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Table 2
Annual and monthly price indices (actual and forecast)

Year	Month	Monthly change	Cumulated monthly price level	12-month price index	Annual price index
t	h	p_t,h	P_t,h	I_t,h	P_t,
2021	1	1.009	1.009	0
	2	1.008	1.017	0
	3	1.007	1.024	0
	4	1.008	1.032	0
	5	1.005	1.038	0
	6	1.006	1.044	0
	7	1.004	1.048	0
	8	1.002	1.050	0
	9	1.002	1.052	0
	10	1.011	1.064	0
	11	1.007	1.071	0
	12	1.003	1.074	0	1.051
2022	1	1.015	1.090	1.081
	2	1.011	1.102	1.084
	3	1.010	1.114	1.087
	4	1.016	1.131	1.096
	5	1.017	1.151	1.109
	6	1.015	1.168	1.119
	7	1.023	1.195	1.140
	8	1.018	1.216	1.158
	9	1.041	1.266	1.203
	10	1.019	1.290	1.213
	11	1.018	1.313	1.226
	12	1.019	1.338	1.246	1.147
2023	1	1.023	1.369	1.255
	2	1.015	1.390	1.260
	3	1.005	1.397	1.254
	4	1.005	1.404	1.241
	5	1.015	1.425	1.238
	6	1.002	1.427	1.222
	7	0.996	1.422	1.190
	8	1.003	1.426	1.173
	9	1.003	1.430	1.130
	10	1.003	1.435	1.112
	11	1.005	1.442	1.098
	12	1.000	1.442	1.077	1.188

Table 3
Annual vs. monthly benefit raise, 2021-2023: counterfactual exact forecast

Year	Month	Nominal	Real	Nominal	Real
Year	Month	Annual raise		Monthly
t	h	b_t	b_t,h	^b_t,h	^b_t,h
2021	1	1.044	1.034	̶	̶
	2	1.044	1.026	̶	̶
	3	1.044	1.019	̶	̶
	4	1.044	1.011	̶	̶
	5	1.044	1.006	̶	̶
	6	1.044	1.000	̶	̶
	7	1.044	0.996	̶	̶
	8	1.044	0.994	̶	̶
	9	1.044	0.992	̶	̶
	10	1.044	0.981	̶	̶
	11	1.044	0.974	̶	̶
	12	1.044	0.971	̶	̶
2022	1	1.205	1.105	̶	̶
	2	1.205	1.093	̶	̶
	3	1.205	1.082	̶	̶
	4	1.205	1.065	̶	̶
	5	1.205	1.048	̶	̶
	6	1.205	1.032	̶	̶
	7	1.205	1.009	̶	̶
	8	1.205	0.991	̶	̶
	9	1.205	0.952	̶	̶
	10	1.205	0.934	̶	̶
	11	1.205	0.918	̶	̶
	12	1.205	0.901	̶	̶
2023	1	1.431	1.045	1.383	1.010
	2	1.431	1.030	1.404	1.010
	3	1.431	1.025	1.411	1.010
	4	1.431	1.020	1.418	1.010
	5	1.431	1.005	1.439	1.010
	6	1.431	1.003	1.442	1.010
	7	1.431	1.007	1.437	1.010
	8	1.431	1.004	1.441	1.010
	9	1.431	1.001	1.445	1.010
	10	1.431	0.998	1.450	1.010
	11	1.431	0.993	1.457	1.010
	12	1.431	0.993	1.457	1.010

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December, 2023
IV/2023

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