When the guns roar: how the war, reserves and exports shape Ukraine’s cost of external borrowing
https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.50.1.5 | Published online: March 18, 2026 Graph 1
Foreign exchange interventions and official exchange rate, 2021-24 Graph 2
Sovereign bond spread of Ukraine and its components, Sep 2021 – Feb 2025 (in %) Graph 3
Dynamics of military events in Ukraine, Feb 2022 – Feb 2025 (number of events) Graph 4
NBU gross reserve assets, Jan 2022 – Nov 2024 (billion USD) Graph 5
Grain and oilseed exports, Sep 2021 – Feb 2025 (in million metric tons) Table 1
Descriptive statistics for variables, monthly averages, September 2021 – July 2024 Table 2
Correlation matrix of variables Table 3
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistics Table 4
Characteristics of model variables Table 5
Estimates of ARDL (1,0,0,1) model Table 6
Bounds test statistic values for ARDL (1,0,0,1) model Table 7
Diagnostics of residuals for ARDL (1,0,0,1) model Table 8
Conditional error correction model for ARDL (1,0,0,1) Table 9
Long-term cointegrating coefficients for ARDL (1,0,0,1) model Table A1
Values of model variables Table A2
Model selection criteria – summary for top 20 models Table A3
Model selection criteria – summary for top 20 models Table A4
Estimates of ARDL (3,1,0,1) model Graph 1 Foreign exchange interventions and official exchange rate, 2021-24 DISPLAY Graph Graph 2 Sovereign bond spread of Ukraine and its components, Sep 2021 – Feb 2025 (in %) DISPLAY Graph Graph 3 Dynamics of military events in Ukraine, Feb 2022 – Feb 2025 (number of events) DISPLAY Graph Graph 4 NBU gross reserve assets, Jan 2022 – Nov 2024 (billion USD) DISPLAY Graph Graph 5 Grain and oilseed exports, Sep 2021 – Feb 2025 (in million metric tons) DISPLAY Graph Table 1 Descriptive statistics for variables, monthly averages, September 2021 – July 2024 DISPLAY Table Table 2 Correlation matrix of variables DISPLAY Table Table 3 Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistics DISPLAY Table Table 4 Characteristics of model variables DISPLAY Table Table 5 Estimates of ARDL (1,0,0,1) model DISPLAY Table Table 6 Bounds test statistic values for ARDL (1,0,0,1) model DISPLAY Table Table 7 Diagnostics of residuals for ARDL (1,0,0,1) model DISPLAY Table Table 8 Conditional error correction model for ARDL (1,0,0,1) DISPLAY Table Table 9 Long-term cointegrating coefficients for ARDL (1,0,0,1) model DISPLAY Table Table A1 Values of model variables DISPLAY Table Table A2 Model selection criteria – summary for top 20 models DISPLAY Table Table A3 Model selection criteria – summary for top 20 models DISPLAY Table Table A4 Estimates of ARDL (3,1,0,1) model DISPLAY Table |
March, 2026 I/2026 |
