When the guns roar: how the war, reserves and exports shape Ukraine’s cost of external borrowing
https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.50.1.5 | Published online: March 18, 2026 Graph 1
Foreign exchange interventions and official exchange rate, 2021-24 Graph 2
Sovereign bond spread of Ukraine and its components, Sep 2021 – Feb 2025 (in %) Graph 3
Dynamics of military events in Ukraine, Feb 2022 – Feb 2025 (number of events) Graph 4
NBU gross reserve assets, Jan 2022 – Nov 2024 (billion USD) Graph 5
Grain and oilseed exports, Sep 2021 – Feb 2025 (in million metric tons) Table 1
Descriptive statistics for variables, monthly averages, September 2021 – July 2024 Table 2
Correlation matrix of variables Table 3
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistics Table 4
Characteristics of model variables Table 5
Estimates of ARDL (1,0,0,1) model Table 6
Bounds test statistic values for ARDL (1,0,0,1) model Table 7
Diagnostics of residuals for ARDL (1,0,0,1) model Table 8
Conditional error correction model for ARDL (1,0,0,1) Table 9
Long-term cointegrating coefficients for ARDL (1,0,0,1) model Table A1
Values of model variables Table A2
Model selection criteria – summary for top 20 models Table A3
Model selection criteria – summary for top 20 models Table A4
Estimates of ARDL (3,1,0,1) model
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