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Institutions, public debt and growth in Europe
Article | Year: 2017 | Pages: 159 - 205 | Volume: 41 | Issue: 2 Received: October 19, 2016 | Accepted: March 8, 2017 | Published online: June 15, 2017
|
FULL ARTICLE
FIGURES & DATA
REFERENCES
CROSSMARK POLICY
METRICS
LICENCING
PDF
Note: As diamonds early EA countries (i.e. countries that joined the euro area until 2001), as x other EU countries. Source: ECB computation on EC data.
Note: Average of four indicators: government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and control of corruption. Dashed early EA countries and blank rest of EU.Source: Authors’ computation on WDI data.
Source: ECB computation on EC and World Bank data.
|
EU
|
Debt<601999
|
Debt>601999
|
Early EA
|
Transition countries
|
Pot.
GDP per capita PPPadj growth1999-2014
|
80.24
|
95.04
|
55.91
|
49.02
|
126.05
|
GDP per capita in thsd PPPadj EUR1999
|
15.65
|
14.15
|
18.72
|
20.49
|
8.81
|
WGI
Delivery1999
|
0.034
|
0.018
|
0.177
|
0.445
|
-0.624
|
WGI
Delivery2007
|
0.091
|
0.058
|
0.157
|
0.359
|
-0.427
|
WGI
Delivery2014
|
0.062
|
0.011
|
0.097
|
0.271
|
-0.376
|
Government
Debt % GDP1999
|
52.41
|
37.67
|
76.01
|
69.13
|
32.38
|
Observations1999
|
27
|
16
|
10
|
11
|
11
|
Source: ECB computation on EC and World Bank data.
15-year average per capita
potential growth
|
Explanatory
variables
|
OLS
|
2SLS
|
Log GDP
(PPP)
|
-0.589***
(0.0386)
|
-0.611***
(0.0413)
|
Institutional
delivery
|
0.0951***
(0.0317)
|
0.116***
(0.0394)
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0394*
(0.0197)
|
-0.0357*
(0.0186)
|
(Debt>60)
x Institutional delivery
|
0.131***
(0.0283)
|
0.123***
(0.0289)
|
Constant
|
2.127***
(0.0988)
|
2.181***
(0.105)
|
Observations
|
208
|
208
|
R-squared
|
0.911
|
0.910
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses.*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Source: Authors’ computation on EC and World Bank data.
|
EU (27)
|
EU + other OECD (33)
|
Fixed ER (21)
|
Flexible ER (12)
|
Log GDP
(PPP)
|
-0.589***
(0.0386)
|
-0.551***
(0.0468)
|
-0.634***
(0.0483)
|
-0.402***
(0.0735)
|
Institutional
delivery
|
0.0951***
(0.0317)
|
0.0904**
(0.0391)
|
0.124**
(0.0465)
|
0.00785
(0.0765)
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0394*
(0.0197)
|
-0.0716**
(0.0297)
|
-0.0507
(0.0322)
|
-0.0895
(0.0517)
|
(Debt>60)
x Institutional delivery
|
0.131***
(0.0283)
|
0.114***
(0.0413)
|
0.133***
(0.0425)
|
0.0873
(0.069)
|
Constant
|
2.127***
(0.0988)
|
2.032***
(0.118)
|
2.237***
(0.121)
|
1.657***
(0.186)
|
Observations
|
208
|
246
|
160
|
86
|
R-squared
|
0.911
|
0.849
|
0.880
|
0.834
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Other OECD: CA, IS, JP, NO, TR, US. Flexible ER: CZ, GB, HU, PL, RO, SE, CA, IS, JP, NO, TR, US. Fixed ER (early EA and fixed exchange rate and late EA joining countries): CY, EE, LT, LV, MT, SI, SK, BG, DK, HR.
|
15 year average potential GDP
growth (in PPP)
|
Debt
threshold
|
T=60 Baseline
|
T=50
|
T=70
|
No threshold debt centred at
60% for the interaction term
|
Log GDP
(PPP)
|
-0.589***
(0.0386)
|
-0.567***
(0.0413)
|
-0.600***
(0.0396)
|
-0.556***
(0.0412)
|
Institutional
delivery
|
0.0951***
(0.0317)
|
0.0663*
(0.0348)
|
0.122***
(0.0330)
|
0.153***
(0.0299)
|
(Debt>T)
|
-0.0394*
(0.0197)
|
-0.0670**
(0.0243)
|
-0.0272
(0.0249)
|
-0.000459
(0.000391)
|
(Debt>T)
x Institutional delivery
|
0.131***
(0.0283)
|
0.150***
(0.0291)
|
0.120***
(0.0348)
|
0.00291***
(0.000571)
|
Constant
|
2.127***
(0.0988)
|
2.080***
(0.103)
|
2.154***
(0.102)
|
2.013***
(0.105)
|
Observations
|
208
|
208
|
208
|
208
|
R-squared
|
0.911
|
0.926
|
0.900
|
0.917
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Exercise 1 – Average annual growth impact of reducing debt to
below threshold (in %)
|
|
IT
|
SI
|
FR
|
PT
|
GR
|
Model
|
D50
|
D60
|
D70
|
D50
|
D60
|
D70
|
D50
|
D60
|
D70
|
D50
|
D60
|
D70
|
D50
|
D60
|
D70
|
Contribution debt
|
0.46
|
0.27
|
0.18
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0.46
|
0.27
|
0
|
0.46
|
0
|
0
|
0.46
|
0.27
|
0.18
|
Contribution interaction term
|
0.27
|
0.24
|
0.22
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
-0.3
|
-0.3
|
0
|
-0.1
|
0
|
0
|
0.24
|
0.21
|
0.19
|
Total
|
0.75
|
0.51
|
0.41
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0.14
|
0
|
0
|
0.32
|
0
|
0
|
0.72
|
0.49
|
0.38
|
Exercise 2 – Average annual growth impact of reducing debt to
below threshold and moving institutions to EU top 3 (in %)
|
|
IT
|
SI
|
FR
|
PT
|
GR
|
Contribution institutional delivery
|
0.87
|
0.73
|
0.47
|
0.59
|
0.85
|
Contribution debt
|
0.27
|
0
|
0.27
|
0
|
0.27
|
Contribution interaction term
|
0.24
|
0
|
-0.3
|
0
|
0.21
|
Total
|
1.45
|
0.73
|
0.47
|
0.59
|
1.4
|
|
15 year average potential GDP
growth (in PPP)
|
|
Baseline
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
(4)
|
(5)
|
(6)
|
Catching-up
|
-0.589***
(0.0386)
|
-0.588***
(0.0395)
|
-0.588***
(0.0386)
|
-0.559***
(0.0453)
|
-0.586***
(0.0365)
|
-0.551***
(0.0397)
|
-0.550***
(0.0537)
|
Institutional
delivery
|
0.0951***
(0.0317)
|
0.0969***
(0.0317)
|
0.102***
(0.0354)
|
0.0736**
(0.0308)
|
0.0885***
(0.0301)
|
0.0763**
(0.0297)
|
0.0718**
(0.0341)
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0394*
(0.0197)
|
-0.0346*
(0.0182)
|
-0.0319
(0.0212)
|
-0.0486**
(0.0215)
|
-0.0301
(0.023)
|
-0.0383
(0.0271)
|
-0.00518
(0.0233)
|
(Debt>60)
x Institutional delivery
|
0.131***
(0.0283)
|
0.123***
(0.0266)
|
0.138***
(0.0285)
|
0.134***
(0.0248)
|
0.124***
(0.0286)
|
0.128***
(0.0364)
|
0.0799***
(0.0266)
|
Trade
openness
|
|
0.035
(0.0385)
|
|
0.0355
(0.035)
|
Government
expenditure
|
|
-0.0985
(0.124)
|
|
-0.102
(0.116)
|
Savings
rate
|
|
-0.00161
(0.00176)
|
|
0.00227
(0.00264)
|
Participation
rate
|
|
0.00193
(0.00235)
|
|
0.00374
(0.00274)
|
Education
|
|
0.00114
(0.00079)
|
0.00157*
(0.00077)
|
Constant
|
2.127***
(0.0988)
|
1.969***
(0.214)
|
2.039***
(0.157)
|
2.069***
(0.106)
|
1.980***
(0.189)
|
2.030***
(0.102)
|
1.491***
(0.29)
|
Observations
|
208
|
208
|
208
|
195
|
208
|
173
|
166
|
R-squared
|
0.911
|
0.914
|
0.914
|
0.925
|
0.912
|
0.897
|
0.922
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
15 year average potential GDP
growth (in PPP)
|
Institutions
|
Baseline
|
ECI (1)
|
KAOPEN (2)
|
EFF (3)
|
EFH (4)
|
Catching-up
|
-0.589***
(0.0386)
|
-0.522***
(0.0179)
|
-0.538***
(0.0161)
|
-0.596***
(0.0255)
|
-0.519***
(0.0264)
|
Institutions
|
0.0951***
(0.0317)
|
0.0676**
(0.0321)
|
0.0371***
(0.0102)
|
0.0757***
(0.0218)
|
0.00445*
(0.00238)
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0394*
(0.0197)
|
0.0230
(0.0326)
|
0.0303
(0.0312)
|
0.0226
(0.0239)
|
0.00215
(0.0248)
|
(Debt>60)
x Institutions
|
0.131***
(0.0283)
|
0.0535
(0.0389)
|
-0.00929
(0.0191)
|
0.0522**
(0.0206)
|
0.0108***
(0.00277)
|
Constant
|
2.127***
(0.0988)
|
1.941***
(0.0448)
|
2.000***
(0.0467)
|
2.139***
(0.0664)
|
1.941***
(0.0694)
|
Observations
|
208
|
454
|
458
|
470
|
200
|
First
observation
|
1995
|
1975
|
1975
|
1975
|
1995
|
R-squared
|
0.911
|
0.873
|
0.865
|
0.882
|
0.883
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
15 year average per capita
GDP growth
|
|
Baseline
|
Actual PPP Log (1)
|
Actual Real Log (2)
|
IMF Pot Real Log (3)
|
EC Pot PPP RelEU (4)
|
PPP Log
|
-0.589***
(0.0386)
|
-0.597***
(0.0441)
|
|
Real Log
|
|
|
-0.403***
(0.0499)
|
-0.373***
(0.0398)
|
|
PPP RelEU
|
|
|
|
|
-0.469***
(0.0509)
|
Institutions
|
0.0951***
(0.0317)
|
0.0909**
(0.0359)
|
0.146**
(0.0533)
|
0.148***
(0.0455)
|
6.432**
(2.455)
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0394*
(0.0197)
|
-0.0540*
(0.0271)
|
-0.0401
(0.0298)
|
-0.0401
(0.0269)
|
-3.208
(2.002)
|
(Debt>60)
x Institutions
|
0.131***
(0.0283)
|
0.150***
(0.0384)
|
0.161***
(0.0400)
|
0.144***
(0.0327)
|
11.63***
(3.237)
|
Constant
|
2.127***
(0.0988)
|
2.134***
(0.113)
|
1.374***
(0.131)
|
1.296***
(0.101)
|
46.05***
(4.024)
|
Observations
|
208
|
208
|
208
|
184
|
208
|
R-squared
|
0.911
|
0.896
|
0.799
|
0.766
|
0.776
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Base
Span
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
|
1
|
30
|
26
|
43
|
15
|
56
|
49
|
56
|
52
|
62
|
61
|
77
|
58
|
45
|
31
|
41
|
47
|
24
|
31
|
48
|
1
|
2
|
26
|
32
|
28
|
39
|
57
|
64
|
64
|
70
|
68
|
76
|
75
|
73
|
49
|
43
|
56
|
45
|
31
|
46
|
49
|
2
|
3
|
39
|
33
|
38
|
49
|
68
|
68
|
74
|
73
|
77
|
76
|
81
|
69
|
52
|
51
|
52
|
47
|
42
|
50
|
50
|
3
|
4
|
39
|
43
|
50
|
62
|
72
|
75
|
76
|
78
|
79
|
82
|
77
|
69
|
57
|
53
|
51
|
52
|
46
|
52
|
|
4
|
5
|
46
|
55
|
62
|
70
|
79
|
77
|
81
|
81
|
85
|
80
|
77
|
71
|
57
|
54
|
55
|
54
|
48
|
|
|
5
|
6
|
57
|
63
|
69
|
77
|
81
|
82
|
83
|
86
|
83
|
80
|
78
|
71
|
58
|
58
|
56
|
55
|
|
|
|
6
|
7
|
64
|
68
|
76
|
79
|
85
|
85
|
88
|
85
|
83
|
82
|
78
|
71
|
59
|
60
|
57
|
|
|
|
|
7
|
8
|
69
|
74
|
78
|
83
|
88
|
90
|
88
|
85
|
84
|
82
|
78
|
70
|
60
|
61
|
|
|
|
|
|
8
|
9
|
73
|
78
|
82
|
87
|
92
|
90
|
87
|
85
|
84
|
82
|
77
|
69
|
60
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9
|
10
|
77
|
83
|
87
|
92
|
93
|
89
|
88
|
86
|
85
|
82
|
76
|
68
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10
|
11
|
82
|
88
|
92
|
92
|
92
|
90
|
88
|
86
|
84
|
81
|
75
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11
|
12
|
88
|
92
|
92
|
92
|
92
|
90
|
88
|
86
|
84
|
80
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12
|
13
|
92
|
93
|
92
|
92
|
93
|
90
|
87
|
85
|
83
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13
|
14
|
93
|
93
|
92
|
92
|
92
|
89
|
87
|
84
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14
|
15
|
94
|
94
|
93
|
92
|
92
|
88
|
86
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15
|
16
|
94
|
94
|
92
|
91
|
91
|
87
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16
|
17
|
94
|
93
|
91
|
90
|
90
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17
|
18
|
94
|
93
|
90
|
90
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
18
|
19
|
93
|
92
|
90
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
19
|
20
|
93
|
91
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20
|
|
1996
|
1997
|
1998
|
1999
|
2000
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
|
|
Average potential per capita GDP growth (in
PPP)
|
Outcome
|
Baseline
|
15yr starting 1996/1999/2002
|
23yr starting 1995
|
10yr non-overlapping
|
Catching-up
|
-0.589***
(0.0386)
|
-0.572***
(0.0430)
|
-0.705***
(0.0637)
|
-0.471***
(0.0378)
|
Institutions
|
0.0951***
(0.0317)
|
0.0892**
(0.0359)
|
0.0965*
(0.04838)
|
0.127***
(0.0304)
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0394*
(0.0197)
|
-0.0549**
(0.0239)
|
-0.0153
(0.0380)
|
-0.00512
(0.0226)
|
(Debt>60) x
Institutions
|
0.131***
(0.0283)
|
0.151***
(0.0354)
|
0.202***
(0.0483)
|
0.0809*
(0.0430)
|
Constant
|
2.127***
(0.0988)
|
2.080***
(0.108)
|
2.505***
(0.152)
|
1.674***
(0.101)
|
Observations
|
208
|
78
|
25
|
52
|
R-squared
|
0.911
|
0.904
|
0.936
|
0.843
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
Average potential per capita GDP growth (in
PPP)
|
Outcome
|
23yr starting 1995 (Institutional delivery)
|
23yr starting 1995 (EFI)
|
35yr starting in 1983 (EFI)
|
Catching-up
|
-0.705***
(0.0637)
|
-0.664***
(0.0514)
|
-0.738***
(0.2122)
|
Institutions
|
0.0965*
(0.0484)
|
0.0318
(0.0233)
|
0.165***
(0.0473)
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0153
(0.0380)
|
-0.0155
(0.0402)
|
0.0438
(0.0896)
|
(Debt>60) x
Institutions
|
0.202***
(0.0483)
|
0.197***
(0.037)
|
-0.0847
(0.0862)
|
Constant
|
2.505***
(0.152)
|
2.423***
(0.135)
|
2.662***
(0.4835)
|
Observations
|
25
|
25
|
13
|
R-squared
|
0.936
|
0.943
|
0.768
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Explanatory
variables
|
Institutions
|
(Debt>60) x Institutions
|
Institutions
|
(Debt>60) x Institutions
|
(Origin=English)
|
Omitted
|
Omitted
|
Omitted
|
Omitted
|
(Debt>60) x
(Origin=English)
|
Omitted
|
Omitted
|
Omitted
|
Omitted
|
(Origin=French)
|
-0.127
(0.0809)
|
0.0200
(0.0626)
|
-0.127
(0.165)
|
0.0200
(0.0248)
|
(Origin=Soviet)
|
-0.414***
(0.0895)
|
0.115*
(0.0693)
|
-0.414**
(0.190)
|
0.115
(0.0781)
|
(Origin=German)
|
0.0689
(0.115)
|
-0.00983
(0.0893)
|
0.0689
(0.143)
|
-0.00983
(0.0153)
|
(Origin=Scandinavian)
|
0.332***
(0.0900)
|
-0.0151
(0.0697)
|
0.332*
(0.163)
|
-0.0151
(0.0199)
|
(Debt>60)
|
0.0384
(0.144)
|
0.521***
(0.112)
|
0.0384
(0.194)
|
0.521***
(0.157)
|
(Debt>60) x
(Origin=French)
|
-0.289*
(0.160)
|
-0.392***
(0.124)
|
-0.289
(0.238)
|
-0.392*
(0.224)
|
(Debt>60) x
(Origin=Soviet)
|
-0.0295
(0.171)
|
-1.214***
(0.133)
|
-0.0295
(0.296)
|
-1.214***
(0.360)
|
(Debt>60) x
(Origin=German)
|
-0.00134
(0.196)
|
0.253*
(0.152)
|
-0.00134
(0.194)
|
0.253
(0.158)
|
(Debt>60) x
(Origin=Scandinavian)
|
-0.0884
(0.181)
|
0.374***
(0.141)
|
-0.0884
(0.212)
|
0.374**
(0.165)
|
Catching-up
|
0.782***
(0.0694)
|
0.133**
(0.0537)
|
0.782***
(0.155)
|
0.133
(0.0867)
|
Constant
|
-1.782***
(0.216)
|
-0.401**
(0.168)
|
-1.782***
(0.487)
|
-0.401
(0.261)
|
Observations
|
208
|
208
|
208
|
208
|
R-squared
|
0.843
|
0.691
|
0.843
|
0.691
|
Clustered
standard errors
|
NO
|
NO
|
YES
|
YES
|
F-stat of
excluded instruments
|
14.41
|
37.86
|
5.354
|
9.282
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
EU (27)
|
EU + other OECD (33)
|
Fixed ER (21)
|
Flexible ER (12)
|
Log GDP (PPP)
|
-0.611***
(0.0413)
|
-0.624***
(0.0654)
|
-0.567***
(0.0560)
|
-0.568***
(0.0810)
|
Institutions
|
0.116***
(0.0394)
|
0.159**
(0.0784)
|
0.0626
(0.0508)
|
0.163*
(0.0866)
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0357*
(0.0186)
|
-0.0612**
(0.0252)
|
-0.0611*
(0.0321)
|
-0.0693*
(0.0383)
|
(Debt>60) x
Institutions
|
0.123***
(0.0289)
|
0.106**
(0.0499)
|
0.131***
(0.0386)
|
0.0371
(0.0706)
|
Constant
|
2.181***
(0.105)
|
2.219***
(0.173)
|
2.067***
(0.137)
|
2.087***
(0.238)
|
Observations
|
208
|
246
|
160
|
86
|
R-squared
|
0.910
|
0.842
|
0.874
|
0.803
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Other OECD: CA, IS, JP, NO, TR, US. Flexible ER: CZ, GB, HU, PL, RO, SE, CA, IS, JP, NO, TR, US. Fixed ER (early EA and fixed exchange rate and late EA joining countries): CY, EE, LT, LV, MT, SI, SK, BG, DK, HR.
|
15 year average potential GDP growth (in PPP)
|
Debt threshold
|
T=60 Baseline
|
T=50
|
T=70
|
No threshold debt centred at 60% for the interaction term
|
Log GDP (PPP)
|
-0.611***
(0.0413)
|
-0.590***
(0.0494)
|
-0.633***
(0.0422)
|
-0.556***
(0.0499)
|
Institutions
|
0.116***
(0.0394)
|
0.0932*
(0.0503)
|
0.151***
(0.0386)
|
0.157***
(0.0366)
|
(Debt>T)
|
-0.0357*
(0.0186)
|
-0.0641***
(0.0235)
|
-0.0175
(0.0252)
|
-0.000419
(0.000475)
|
(Debt>T) x
Institutions
|
0.123***
(0.0289)
|
0.133***
(0.0363)
|
0.120***
(0.0393)
|
0.00316***
(0.00111)
|
Constant
|
2.181***
(0.105)
|
2.140***
(0.123)
|
2.238***
(0.108)
|
2.012***
(0.129)
|
Observations
|
208
|
208
|
208
|
208
|
R-squared
|
0.910
|
0.925
|
0.899
|
0.917
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
15 year average potential GDP growth (in PPP)
|
Catching-up
|
-0.611***
(0.0413)
|
-0.617***
(0.0434)
|
-0.602***
(0.0438)
|
-0.561***
(0.0568)
|
-0.591***
(0.0505)
|
-0.570***
(0.0544)
|
-0.594***
(0.0640)
|
Institutions
|
0.116***
(0.0394)
|
0.123***
(0.0408)
|
0.117**
(0.0531)
|
0.0775*
(0.0430)
|
0.0954*
(0.0540)
|
0.0970**
(0.0440)
|
0.116*
(0.0636)
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0357*
(0.0186)
|
-0.0315*
(0.0182)
|
-0.0285
(0.0212)
|
-0.0462**
(0.0198)
|
-0.0277
(0.0208)
|
-0.0265
(0.0239)
|
-0.000569
(0.0232)
|
(Debt>60) x
Institutions
|
0.123***
(0.0289)
|
0.122***
(0.0298)
|
0.129***
(0.0265)
|
0.120***
(0.0245)
|
0.115***
(0.0287)
|
0.0988***
(0.0331)
|
0.0817***
(0.0290)
|
Trade openness
|
|
0.0342
(0.0370)
|
|
|
|
|
0.0304
(0.0330)
|
Government
expenditure
|
|
|
-0.101
(0.135)
|
|
|
|
-0.135
(0.140)
|
Savings rate
|
|
|
|
-0.00151
(0.00174)
|
|
|
0.00216
(0.00242)
|
Participation rate
|
|
|
|
|
0.00198
(0.00291)
|
|
0.00253
(0.00318)
|
Education
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.00127
(0.000785)
|
0.00162**
(0.000710)
|
Constant
|
2.181***
(0.105)
|
2.046***
(0.182)
|
2.072***
(0.115)
|
2.071***
(0.132)
|
1.991***
(0.311)
|
2.077***
(0.141)
|
1.687***
(0.228)
|
Observations
|
208
|
208
|
208
|
195
|
208
|
173
|
166
|
R-squared
|
0.910
|
0.913
|
0.913
|
0.925
|
0.912
|
0.896
|
0.919
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
15 year average potential GDP growth (in PPP)
|
Institutions
|
WGI
Baseline
|
Economic
Complexity
|
Chinn-Ito
Openness
|
Economic Freedom
Fraser
|
Economic Freedom
Heritage
|
Catching-up
|
-0.611***
(0.0413)
|
-0.559***
(0.0306)
|
-0.690***
(0.0776)
|
-0.773***
(0.0870)
|
-0.516***
(0.0794)
|
Institutions
|
0.116***
(0.0394)
|
0.134***
(0.0464)
|
0.144***
(0.0487)
|
0.202**
(0.0848)
|
0.00375
(0.00889)
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0357*
(0.0186)
|
0.0235
(0.0428)
|
0.0358
(0.0292)
|
0.0189
(0.0298)
|
0.000462
(0.0459)
|
(Debt>60) x
Institutions
|
0.123***
(0.0289)
|
0.0875
(0.0697)
|
-0.0569
(0.0682)
|
0.115**
(0.0501)
|
0.0122***
(0.00308)
|
Constant
|
2.181***
(0.105)
|
2.019***
(0.0696)
|
2.399***
(0.200)
|
2.582***
(0.227)
|
1.934***
(0.194)
|
Observations
|
208
|
454
|
458
|
470
|
200
|
First
observation
|
1995
|
1975
|
1975
|
1975
|
1995
|
R-squared
|
0.910
|
0.855
|
0.716
|
0.803
|
0.883
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
15 year average potential GDP growth (in PPP)
|
Variables
|
EU27
(baseline)
|
EU27
(excl. GR)
|
EU (15)
|
EU (15)
(excl. GR)
|
CEECs (10)
|
Catching-up
|
-0.589***
(0.0386)
|
-0.573***
(0.0350)
|
-0.407***
(0.0422)
|
-0.398***
(0.0426)
|
-0.634***
(0.0712)
|
Institutions
|
0.0951***
(0.0317)
|
0.0833***
(0.0288)
|
0.0671**
(0.0271)
|
0.0629**
(0.0262)
|
0.0722
(0.0777)
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0394*
(0.0197)
|
-0.0294*
(0.0164)
|
-0.0519**
(0.0228)
|
-0.0342
(0.0194)
|
-0.120**
(0.0436)
|
(Debt>60) x
Institutions
|
0.131***
(0.0283)
|
0.120***
(0.0231)
|
0.142***
(0.0359)
|
0.117***
(0.0335)
|
0.0626
(0.0504)
|
Constant
|
2.127***
(0.0988)
|
2.085***
(0.0897)
|
1.605***
(0.124)
|
1.579***
(0.126)
|
2.210***
(0.192)
|
Observations
|
208
|
200
|
120
|
112
|
80
|
R-squared
|
0.911
|
0.914
|
0.659
|
0.675
|
0.862
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
|
15 year average potential GDP growth (in PPP)
|
Variables
|
EU27
(baseline)
|
EU27
(excl. GR)
|
EU (15)
|
EU (15)
(excl. GR)
|
Catching-up
|
-0.611***
(0.0413)
|
-0.596***
(0.0399)
|
-0.415***
(0.0513)
|
-0.413***
(0.0541)
|
Institutions
|
0.116***
(0.0394)
|
0.104***
(0.0374)
|
0.0787**
(0.0394)
|
0.0787**
(0.0401)
|
(Debt>60)
|
-0.0357*
(0.0186)
|
-0.0284
(0.0173)
|
-0.0419*
(0.0220)
|
-0.0172
(0.0218)
|
(Debt>60) x
Institutions
|
0.123***
(0.0289)
|
| |