The euro and inflation in Croatia: much ado about nothing?

Sorić, Petar

doi:10.3326/pse.48.1.1.

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The euro and inflation in Croatia: much ado about nothing?

Petar Sorić*

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https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.48.1.1

FULL ARTICLE

FIGURES & DATA

REFERENCES

CROSSMARK POLICY

METRICS

LICENCING

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Table 1
ASCM baseline estimations (January to July 2023)

	January	February	March	April	May	June	July
hicp	1.704	0.974	1.589	0.508	1.199	2.062	2.038
hicp	(0.038)	(0.291)	(0.155)	(0.601)	(0.235)	(0.038)	(0.014)
food	0.065	0.203	0.823	2.748	3.927	4.889	3.615
food	(0.986)	(0.934)	(0.648)	(0.127)	(0.019)	(0.005)	(0.028)
nonalc	0.202	-1.845	-1.570	-0.002	1.971	3.038	2.653
nonalc	(0.864)	(0.315)	(0.390)	(0.977)	(0.296)	(0.089)	(0.113)
alc	1.077	-0.522	-2.041	-1.794	-1.449	-1.294	-1.374
alc	(0.577)	(0.826)	(0.282)	(0.343)	(0.498)	(0.545)	(0.516)
clothing	8.225	5.901	3.294	3.419	2.121	4.385	7.374
clothing	(0.005)	(0.014)	(0.202)	(0.174)	(0.441)	(0.094)	(0.005)
housing	4.362	3.626	0.800	-1.105	-1.182	-0.703	-0.086
housing	(0.244)	(0.371)	(0.930)	(0.718)	(0.681)	(0.812)	(0.953)
furnish	1.463	1.014	0.181	-1.211	0.699	1.165	2.154
furnish	(0.061)	(0.197)	(0.817)	(0.117)	(0.380)	(0.131)	(0.019)
health	2.386	1.795	1.539	1.782	2.831	4.098	4.364
health	(0.188)	(0.324)	(0.385)	(0.366)	(0.169)	(0.023)	(0.019)
transport	-0.835	-0.373	-0.761	-1.722	-1.421	0.198	1.109
transport	(0.577)	(0.751)	(0.592)	(0.300)	(0.352)	(0.901)	(0.479)
commun	-1.623	-1.662	-1.034	-0.097	0.167	-0.979	1.647
commun	0.277)	(0.277)	(0.521)	(0.962)	(0.911)	(0.540)	(0.291)
recr	-0.802	-2.032	-3.410	-3.965	-4.310	-3.545	-0.533
recr	(0.549)	(0.188)	(0.056)	(0.033)	(0.023)	(0.075)	(0.789)
educ	1.970	1.718	2.299	2.465	2.084	2.683	3.560
educ	(0.235)	(0.277)	(0.192)	(0.178)	(0.239)	(0.174)	(0.061)
rest	4.340	3.701	4.391	5.276	6.890	9.087	7.024
rest	(0.028)	(0.052)	(0.038)	(0.038)	(0.014)	(0.005)	(0.009)
misc	1.501	-0.049)	0.269	0.298	1.219	0.915	0.930
misc	(0.103)	(0.930)	(0.756)	(0.732)	(0.188)	(0.371)	(0.366)

Note: Table entries are gaps between actual and synthetic values of corresponding variables.

Positive gaps imply that actual values are greater than the synthetic ones. P-values are given in parentheses. Bold entries are significant at the 5% level.

Source: Author’s calculation.

Table 2
ASCM placebo specifications across countries (January to July 2023)

	January	February	March	April	May	June	July
hicp	0.862	0.220	-0.439	-1.225	-0.348	0.700	0.905
hicp	(0.315)	(0.817)	(0.704)	(0.225)	(0.761)	(0.460)	(0.282)
food	-1.402	-0.719	0.210	2.590	4.231	4.850	3.442
food	(0.451)	(0.718)	(0.930)	(0.117)	(0.019)	(0.005)	(0.056)
nonalc	-0.612	-2.586	-2.417	-0.793	0.886	2.662	2.688
nonalc	(0.657)	(0.136)	(0.164)	(0.568)	(0.549)	(0.113)	(0.108)
alc	0.795	-0.825	-2.113	-2.496	-1.738	-1.836	-1.922
alc	(0.695)	(0.690)	(0.258)	(0.216)	(0.404)	(0.343)	(0.315)
clothing*	8.225	5.901	3.294	3.419	2.121	4.385	7.374
clothing*	(0.005)	(0.014)	(0.202)	(0.174)	(0.441)	(0.094)	(0.005)
housing	1.024	-0.102	-1.555	-4.839	-5.390	-4.619	-3.682
housing	(0.878)	(0.911)	(0.648)	(0.225)	(0.207)	(0.225)	(0.286)
furn*	1.463	1.014	0.181	-1.211	0.699	1.165	2.154
furn*	(0.061)	(0.197)	(0.817)	(0.117)	(0.380)	(0.131)	(0.019)
health	2.561	2.029	1.754	1.802	3.153	5.098	5.287
health	(0.178)	(0.272)	(0.315)	(0.347)	(0.136)	(0.019)	(0.019)
transport	0.143	1.034	1.717	0.866	-0.112	1.376	2.172
transport	(0.958)	(0.568)	(0.333)	(0.554)	(0.948)	(0.352)	(0.160)
commun	-2.028	-2.431	-2.058	-0.566	-0.586	-1.993	0.860
commun	(0.239)	(0.169)	(0.258)	(0.700)	(0.695)	(0.263)	(0.592)
recr*	-0.802	-2.032	-3.410	-3.965	-4.310	-3.545	-0.533
recr*	(0.549)	(0.188)	(0.056)	(0.033)	(0.023)	(0.075)	(0.789)
educ	1.564	1.156	1.313	1.476	1.178	1.577	2.260
educ	(0.319)	(0.451)	(0.390)	(0.366)	(0.446)	(0.324)	(0.188)
rest	4.222	3.531	4.176	5.265	6.417	8.837	6.821
rest	(0.028)	(0.052)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.009)	(0.005)	(0.009)
misc	1.808	0.682	0.737	0.985	1.521	0.618	0.770
misc	(0.099)	(0.455)	(0.418)	(0.300)	(0.127)	(0.488)	(0.413)

Note: Table entries are gaps between actual and synthetic values of corresponding variables.

Positive gaps imply that actual values are greater than the synthetic ones. P-values are given in parentheses. Bold entries are significant at the 5% level.

* Denotes specifications with no MSPEs three times larger than the Croatian one (leaving the baseline ASCM results intact).

Source: Author’s calculation.

Table 3
ASCM results (January to July 2023): placebo estimations across time (2015M05 as intervention date)

	January	February	March	April	May	June	July
hicp	2.678	1.626	2.478	0.853	0.506	1.174	1.298
hicp	(0.355)	(0.595)	(0.397)	(0.769)	(0.81)	(0.636)	(0.554)
food	4.521	3.286	2.543	3.220	3.441	4.811	3.721
food	(0.157)	(0.306)	(0.372)	(0.215)	(0.149)	(0.025)	(0.074)
nonalc	1.124	-3.245	-3.583	-3.264	-2.031	0.215	-1.607
nonalc	(0.736)	(0.339)	(0.413)	(0.463)	(0.62)	(0.95)	(0.463)
alc	2.783	1.040	-0.778	-0.455	-0.454	0.287	0.141
alc	(0.215)	(0.579)	(0.678)	(0.851)	(0.843)	(0.959)	(0.992)
clothing	8.871	6.440	2.785	3.413	1.813	4.148	7.803
clothing	(0.008)	(0.033)	(0.421)	(0.174)	(0.636)	(0.083)	(0.008)
housing	-22.051	-16.597	-12.641	-27.614	-29.643	-20.988	-15.951
housing	(0.612)	(0.562)	(0.653)	(0.388)	(0.372)	(0.397)	(0.512)
furn	6.726	5.535	4.894	3.677	3.762	3.114	3.022
furn	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)
health	-4.891	-5.445	-4.343	-5.334	-3.745	-1.526	-2.173
health	(0.099)	(0.066)	(0.165)	(0.215)	(0.355)	(0.711)	(0.57)
transport	-0.613	-0.533	-0.916	-0.845	-1.627	-0.587	0.558
transport	(0.727)	(0.744)	(0.694)	(0.645)	(0.463)	(0.744)	(0.835)
commun	-0.076	-0.094	0.471	1.884	1.886	-0.362	3.159
commun	(0.975)	(0.975)	(0.818)	(0.405)	(0.397)	(0.851)	(0.207)
recr	-6.616	-7.152	-8.661	-9.315	-8.989	-5.424	2.099
recr	(0.231)	(0.165)	(0.14)	(0.058)	(0.033)	(0.149)	(0.545)
educ	13.190	13.044	13.313	12.737	12.811	13.079	13.782
educ	(0.223)	(0.231)	(0.223)	(0.24)	(0.248)	(0.231)	(0.223)
rest	12.742	12.243	13.025	11.675	11.423	12.661	9.611
rest	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.025)	(0.017)	(0.025)
misc	3.894	2.993	2.967	2.476	2.331	1.888	1.904
misc	(0.017)	(0.05)	(0.025)	(0.05)	(0.074)	(0.091)	(0.099)

Note: Table entries are gaps between actual and synthetic values of corresponding variables.

Positive gaps imply that actual values are greater than the synthetic ones. P-values are given in parentheses. Bold entries are significant at the 5% level.

Source: Author’s calculation.

Table 4
ASCM results (January to July 2023): placebo estimations across time (2022M09 as intervention date)

	January	February	March	April	May	June	July
hicp	3.285	2.245	2.821	1.683	2.210	3.117	2.998
hicp	(0.005)	(0.038)	(0.043)	(0.215)	(0.048)	(0.01)	(0.005)
food	1.832	1.994	2.338	4.398	4.890	5.469	3.203
food	(0.378)	(0.359)	(0.282)	(0.033)	(0.01)	(0.005)	(0.067)
nonalc	2.052	-0.339	0.642	2.290	3.811	4.546	3.525
nonalc	(0.297)	(0.809)	(0.727)	(0.301)	(0.062)	(0.014)	(0.053)
alc	0.946	-0.674	-2.200	-1.948	-1.599	-1.388	-1.437
alc	(0.627)	(0.756)	(0.278)	(0.321)	(0.459)	(0.536)	(0.512)
clothing	7.889	5.817	3.118	3.143	2.098	3.728	7.265
clothing	(0.005)	(0.019)	(0.187)	(0.158)	(0.373)	(0.091)	(0.005)
housing	5.608	4.200	1.014	-2.075	-2.172	-1.993	-0.969
housing	(0.474)	(0.565)	(0.938)	(0.689)	(0.651)	(0.641)	(0.77)
furn	2.542	1.932	1.136	-0.299	1.425	1.600	2.469
furn	(0.01)	(0.033)	(0.196)	(0.684)	(0.1)	(0.043)	(0.005)
health	2.516	1.926	1.670	1.929	2.990	4.239	4.506
health	(0.182)	(0.301)	(0.388)	(0.349)	(0.172)	(0.024)	(0.019)
transport	-0.216	-0.013	-0.837	-1.878	-1.846	-0.042	0.702
transport	(0.809)	(0.952)	(0.574)	(0.244)	(0.263)	(0.947)	(0.651)
commun	-1.781	-1.922	-0.374	0.529	0.879	-0.322	2.579
commun	(0.254)	(0.23)	(0.852)	(0.742)	(0.569)	(0.861)	(0.124)
recr	-1.670	-2.882	-4.296	-4.707	-4.951	-4.009	-0.692
recr	(0.378)	(0.163)	(0.053)	(0.033)	(0.024)	(0.067)	(0.77)
educ	1.971	1.721	2.179	2.330	1.919	2.477	3.333
educ	(0.603)	(0.636)	(0.569)	(0.541)	(0.612)	(0.522)	(0.397)
rest	7.230	6.572	7.063	7.692	9.500	11.415	9.530
rest	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.014)	(0.01)	(0.005)	(0.01)
misc	3.126	1.891	1.727	1.115	1.649	1.383	1.158
misc	(0.01)	(0.11)	(0.11)	(0.268)	(0.1)	(0.201)	(0.273)

Note: Table entries are gaps between actual and synthetic values of corresponding variables.

Positive gaps imply that actual values are greater than the synthetic ones. P-values are given in parentheses. Bold entries are significant at the 5% level.

Source: Author’s calculation.

Table 5
ASCM results (January to July 2023): placebo estimations across time (2022M12 as intervention date)

	January	February	March	April	May	June	July
hicp	1.988	1.196	1.884	0.768	1.429	2.275	2.234
hicp	(0.024)	(0.212)	(0.108)	(0.472)	(0.189)	(0.028)	(0.005)
food	0.280	0.353	1.023	2.935	4.014	4.961	3.604
food	(0.901)	(0.882)	(0.559)	(0.113)	(0.024)	(0.005)	(0.028)
nonalc	-0.018	-2.062	-1.764	-0.213	1.533	2.949	2.625
nonalc	(0.981)	(0.255)	(0.354)	(0.896)	(0.382)	(0.108)	(0.132)
alc	1.103	-0.491	-2.010	-1.754	-1.148	-1.276	-1.362
alc	(0.571)	(0.844)	(0.288)	(0.368)	(0.509)	(0.552)	(0.524)
clothing	8.193	6.030	3.455	3.351	2.372	4.265	7.397
clothing	(0.005)	(0.009)	(0.16)	(0.156)	(0.349)	(0.08)	(0.005)
housing	4.264	3.606	0.971	-1.116	-1.014	-0.719	-0.274
housing	(0.335)	(0.462)	(0.939)	(0.741)	(0.741)	(0.802)	(0.915)
furn	1.755	1.190	0.488	-0.790	0.936	1.357	2.262
furn	(0.028)	(0.156)	(0.491)	(0.349)	(0.264)	(0.118)	(0.009)
health	2.431	1.840	1.588	1.836	2.889	4.155	4.422
health	(0.184)	(0.311)	(0.382)	(0.358)	(0.17)	(0.024)	(0.019)
transport	-0.822	-0.596	-1.142	-2.081	-1.851	-0.048	0.814
transport	(0.566)	(0.632)	(0.472)	(0.217)	(0.259)	(0.892)	(0.608)
commun	-1.749	-1.682	-0.932	-0.004	0.254	-0.966	1.789
commun	(0.269)	(0.311)	(0.604)	(1.000)	(0.868)	(0.594)	(0.269)
recr	-0.868	-2.090	-3.474	-4.006	-4.354	-3.561	-0.498
recr	(0.528)	(0.203)	(0.057)	(0.033)	(0.024)	(0.075)	(0.811)
educ	1.980	1.726	2.335	2.504	2.130	2.737	3.618
educ	(0.245)	(0.292)	(0.203)	(0.193)	(0.245)	(0.179)	(0.066)
rest	4.950	4.365	4.982	5.787	7.391	9.592	7.653
rest	(0.024)	(0.033)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.009)	(0.005)	(0.009)
misc	1.963	0.501	0.695	0.594	1.495	1.238	1.218
misc	(0.028)	(0.604)	(0.462)	(0.495)	(0.127)	(0.212)	(0.212)

Note: Table entries are gaps between actual and synthetic values of corresponding variables.

Positive gaps imply that actual values are greater than the synthetic ones. P-values are given in parentheses. Bold entries are significant at the 5% level.

Source: Author’s calculation.